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Old 02-11-2019, 10:24 AM   #2441
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Back to Tesla:
"The company reportedly cut 150 people from a team of about 230. The team worked at a facility in Las Vegas and was tasked with getting cars from the factory and into the hands of customers in the U.S. and Canada. More than 3,000 Tesla employees lost their jobs in January — the company’s second mass layoff in less than a year.
“There are not enough deliveries,” one of the laid-off employees told Reuters. “You don’t need a team because there are not that many cars coming through.”

see article: Silicon Valley Buisenss Journal
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/...s-model-3.html.
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Old 02-11-2019, 10:34 AM   #2442
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Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
So while that article appears positive regarding Tesla versus Audi & Mercedes, I'm not sure there is much there to push Tesla stock price.
The Audi/Merc cars they are talking about are ~ $80,000 USD, right? Not really where Tesla is looking anymore in terms of future growth.-ERD50
I think it is safe to assume that Tesla is the company to beat at all levels in the EV market. This article helps to confirm that even the best car manufacturers (in terms of innovation and technology) are struggling to build a better car than Tesla has on the market now. If Mercedes and Audi are getting a little panicked, then Ford, Chevy, et al, must be crapping their pants.

The point is, that anyone looking to be an early investor in this emerging global industry should be putting their money into TSLA stock. This is going to be similar to the computer industry back in the 80s and 90s. Those who invested early in Microsoft and Apple made a ton of money. With risk comes reward.
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Old 02-11-2019, 10:44 AM   #2443
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Originally Posted by oneill225 View Post
I think it is safe to assume that Tesla is the company to beat at all levels in the EV market. This article helps to confirm that even the best car manufacturers (in terms of innovation and technology) are struggling to build a better car than Tesla has on the market now. If Mercedes and Audi are getting a little panicked, then Ford, Chevy, et al, must be crapping their pants. ...
Maybe, maybe not. We will see.

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Originally Posted by oneill225 View Post
... The point is, that anyone looking to be an early investor in this emerging global industry should be putting their money into TSLA stock. This is going to be similar to the computer industry back in the 80s and 90s. Those who invested early in Microsoft and Apple made a ton of money. With risk comes reward.
I'm not sure your point is valid. Maybe Tesla will be like one of these ~ 100 companies (I clipped the list to not take up so much space and avoid copyright issues):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...sed_production

Quote:
Companies that have ceased production

Acorn Computers
Alliant Computer Systems - Ceased operations in 1992.
Altos Computer Systems - acquired by Acer in 1990.
Amdahl Corporation - A wholly owned subsidiary of Fujitsu since 1997.
Amstrad
Apollo Computer - Acquired by Hewlett-Packard in 1989.
Apricot Computers - ceased operations in 1999.
Ardent Computer - Merged with Stellar Computer to form Stardent in 1989.
AST Computers, LLC - Exited the computer market in 2001.
Atari Corporation
Bell & Howell
Burroughs - Merged with Sperry to form Unisys in 1986.
Celerity Computing - Acquired by Floating Point Systems in 1988.
Commodore International - declared bankruptcy in 1994.
Compaq - Acquired by Hewlett-Packard in 2002. Defunct as a subsidiary as of 2013.
CompuAdd - filed for bankruptcy in 1993.
Computer Automation
Control Data Corporation (CDC) - Shrank as units were spun off from 1988 to 1992; remainder is now Ceridian.
Convergent Technologies
Convex Computer - purchased by The Hewlett-Packard Company in 1995
Corona Data Systems - among the original "IBM PC Compatible" clone makers
Cromemco
Data General - was one of the first minicomputer firms from the late 1960s, purchased by EMC in 1999 for its innovative RAID array storage.
Digital Equipment Corporation - Acquired by Compaq in 1998.
Durango Systems Corporation merged with Molecular Systems in 1982 which went bankrupt in 1984


// clipping E~S//

Tandon Corporation
Tandy Corporation - Previous parent company of RadioShack, produced the TRS-80 and Tandy 1000 and 2000 IBM PC compatible computers. Sold their computer division to AST Computers in the early 1990s.
Tiny Computers - merged into TIME Computers.
Texas Instruments
TriGem Computer - Declared bankrupt in 2012
Averatec - Averatec subsidiary goes out of business in 2012.
Tulip Computers - changed its name to Nedfield NV in 2008, pronounced bankrupt on 3 September 2009.
Vigor Gaming (USA) - Disappeared in March 2010
VoodooPC
VTech
Wang Laboratories - acquired by Getronics in 1999.
Wipro - Ceased PC manufacturing.
Xerox - Exited the computer business.
Zenith Data Systems - Merged With Packard Bell and NEC in 1996
Zeos - merged into MPC Corporation in 1996, which in turn filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2008.
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Old 02-11-2019, 10:45 AM   #2444
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Originally Posted by ls99 View Post
Back to Tesla:
"The company reportedly cut 150 people from a team of about 230. The team worked at a facility in Las Vegas and was tasked with getting cars from the factory and into the hands of customers in the U.S. and Canada. More than 3,000 Tesla employees lost their jobs in January.
Is it your belief that Tesla is about to collapse? Do you think demand for electric cars has been satisfied? What do you take from the reduction of 150 people from a company that employs many thousands?

At the end of the day, these are just routine business decisions. Workers and assets are appropriated, as needed and projected. Reading more into it than that is not supported by the production rates. Tesla is still cranking out thousands of cars every week and shipping them around the world.

Now, if Tesla cannot sell the cars they are making, I will reevaluate my position.
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Old 02-11-2019, 10:49 AM   #2445
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...

Now, if Tesla cannot sell the cars they are making, I will reevaluate my position.
If/when that news comes out, it may very well be too late to "reevaluate" your position - at least profitably.

Quote:
Do you think demand for electric cars has been satisfied?
The signs are that US demand for $40k+ Model 3s has dropped. Do you agree?

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Old 02-11-2019, 10:53 AM   #2446
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I'm not sure your point is valid. Maybe Tesla will be like one of these ~ 100 companies (I clipped the list to not take up so much space and avoid copyright issues):-ERD50
At some point, the clouds begin to clear and it is apparent who is winning the game. It happened with Microsoft and it is happening now with Tesla.

The safe bet is to just wait and buy broad index funds. I have no problem if that is where you are at. If you want bigger returns, however, then it is necessary to up the risk factor a little by putting some of your money to work in a company that has a bright future. Tesla is one of those companies.
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Old 02-11-2019, 11:08 AM   #2447
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The signs are that US demand for $40k+ Model 3s has dropped. Do you agree?-ERD50
I, honestly, do not know. The wait lists have gone down as the early adopters have been satisfied, but I think Tesla benefits hugely from word of mouth sales. In other words, every happy Tesla customer gets a friend or relative to buy one, as well. This kind of "demand" is not reflected as easily as a wait list. Keep in mind that Tesla does not really advertise their products.

Of course, there is a limited market for any product at any price point. I doubt that Tesla's market for the Model 3 has reached that point, yet. $40,000 is not outrageous for a car, anymore.

Sedans are the least popular segment in the auto industry, right now. The bigger question may be whether the market for sedans has any future. Tesla needs to produce an affordable cross-over like the Model Y to meet the largest future demand. I see no reason to doubt that it will happen.
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Old 02-11-2019, 11:10 AM   #2448
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Is it your belief that Tesla is about to collapse? .......

No. But the company or their retail products are not worthy of a dime of my money, especially not as an investment.


I might buy a junked tesla just to play and or experiment with. Though it would have to be cheaper than a used golf cart, to run around in my camp with.
Providing it has a three phase motors. Based on my past Heavy and Light Railroad and electronics experience, I would junk all of their electronics and use a home brew three phase driver. Based on Munro's teardown evaluation, the only really good thing in the cars is the motors. The rest is overpriced video games and shoddy metalwork.
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Old 02-11-2019, 11:18 AM   #2449
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No. But the company or their retail products are not worthy of a dime of my money, especially not as an investment.
I might buy a junked tesla just to play and or experiment with. Though it would have to be cheaper than a used golf cart, to run around in my camp with.
Providing it has a three phase motors. Based on my past Heavy and Light Railroad and electronics experience, I would junk all of their electronics and use a home brew three phase driver. Based on Munro's teardown evaluation, the only really good thing in the cars is the motors. The rest is overpriced video games and shoddy metalwork.
High standards. I like it.

Stick with the index funds. It is safer there.
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Old 02-11-2019, 10:26 PM   #2450
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At some point, the clouds begin to clear and it is apparent who is winning the game. ....
By that time, it's usually too late for an investor to make outsize profits. If it is clear to everyone, the stock has already been bought up.


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Originally Posted by oneill225 View Post
... It happened with Microsoft and it is happening now with Tesla. ....
Maybe. I don't see much evidence of it. Lotsa headwinds for Tesla.


Quote:
Originally Posted by oneill225 View Post
... The safe bet is to just wait and buy broad index funds. I have no problem if that is where you are at. If you want bigger returns, however, then it is necessary to up the risk factor a little by putting some of your money to work in a company that has a bright future. ...
Agreed. But predicting the future is a tough game. You are likely to pick a company with a dim future.

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... putting some of your money to work in a company that has a bright future. Tesla is one of those companies.
Just keep telling yourself that, and ignore any negative, critical views. We'll see how that works out for you.


Quote:
Originally Posted by oneill225 View Post
I, honestly, do not know. The wait lists have gone down as the early adopters have been satisfied, but I think Tesla benefits hugely from word of mouth sales. In other words, every happy Tesla customer gets a friend or relative to buy one, as well. This kind of "demand" is not reflected as easily as a wait list. ...
I'd agree that word of mouth has worked well for them in the past, But Tesla has dropped the price twice now - is it still working? Apparently not well enough.


Quote:
Originally Posted by oneill225 View Post
... Sedans are the least popular segment in the auto industry, right now. The bigger question may be whether the market for sedans has any future. Tesla needs to produce an affordable cross-over like the Model Y to meet the largest future demand. I see no reason to doubt that it will happen.
So if Tesla is such a visionary company, why didn't they foresee this, and design the Model 3 as an SUV/Crossover? Model X was not a big seller. Model Y might be out in volume in 2020 ( or is that just Musk optimism?)? They really missed the boat. That would not give me confidence if I were an investor.

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Old 02-11-2019, 10:41 PM   #2451
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Auto pilot supposedly fails causing crash in NJ.
https://abc7ny.com/nj-man-involved-i...-road/5133538/
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Old 02-12-2019, 12:16 AM   #2452
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Auto pilot supposedly fails causing crash in NJ.
https://abc7ny.com/nj-man-involved-i...-road/5133538/
From the article:

Quote:
...The owner says the car's autopilot forced him to jump the curb and mow down several signs before coming to a muddy stop along Route 1 in North Brunswick. Bits and pieces of the Tesla were scattered along the northbound side of the highway...

Sounds like just another idiot who thinks the advanced cruise control system in his car is a truly autonomous autopilot, which it is not. He's lucky to be alive. He could have killed another driver or bystander too.
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Old 02-12-2019, 01:10 AM   #2453
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Note: I offer the article below for your consideration since the author spends a deal of it comparing the German auto industry's attempts to build EVs to what Tesla is doing.

Here's one guy's take on how the Germans are approaching the EV. Basically, he seems to be saying 'to little, to late'. And, that the German auto industry (60% of Germany's economic growth according to the author) may be at risk. You be the judge.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/10...till-sleeping/

The comparison of Tesla with BMW is interesting, IMHO. Who knows what will happen? Time will tell.
Very interesting. Tesla does have the lead, but I do not see that as an irrevocable one. We will see how other car makers catch up, or fail to, in the days ahead.
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Old 02-12-2019, 08:50 AM   #2454
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...But Tesla has dropped the price twice now - is it still working? Apparently not well enough.-ERD50
A good example of how Tesla can't win with some critics. If they don't lower the price they are just for the "rich" and if they do lower the price (as they have said they will for many months) they must be desperate to find buyers.
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Old 02-12-2019, 09:02 AM   #2455
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A good example of how Tesla can't win with some critics. If they don't lower the price they are just for the "rich" and if they do lower the price (as they have said they will for many months) they must be desperate to find buyers.
Gimme/us a break.

If you really don't know the difference between lowering the price of the existing configurations because it appears demand has dropped, and offering a new lower priced model (lower/negative margin) to reach the lower end market, then you really should stick to broad based index funds.

Show me ( again - "Show me" - don't change the subject!) where Tesla said it was their plan to lower the price for existing configurations. Clearly, Musk has been saying from the start they plan to offer a $35,000 base model.
Quote:

https://electrek.co/2019/01/24/tesla...-3-base-35000/

Tesla’s Model 3 is already quite successful based on many metrics, but Tesla is still failing on arguably the most important promise: a starting price of $35,000.

Is the standard Model 3 still coming and where is it now?

The price has always been one of the biggest features of the Model 3.

It was part of Elon Musk’s original “secret master plan” for Tesla: make a compelling mass-market all-electric vehicle.

With a base price of $44,000 before incentives, the Model 3 is not quite there yet.

The $35,000 version is supposed to be enabled by a smaller battery pack and an interior with fewer features and different materials.

It was always part of the plan.

Back in the summer of 2017, we reported on Tesla’s Model 3 battery pack architecture and the automaker already had plans for the standard battery pack at the time.

It was supposed to be available just a few months after the higher-end versions of the car, but then production hell happened and the company had to revisit its priorities and focus on ramping up production in a sustainable way.

Over a year later and Tesla still lists the standard battery pack as being “4 to 6 months” away.
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Old 02-12-2019, 09:25 AM   #2456
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A good example of how Tesla can't win with some critics. If they don't lower the price they are just for the "rich" and if they do lower the price (as they have said they will for many months) they must be desperate to find buyers.
Let me answer that from a different angle.

It has nothing to do with winning/losing from any 'critics' viewpoint. Why change the subject? Is it because you don't have an answer that is positive for Tesla?

Lowering the US price twice in a short time while having limited US supply while they feed the pipeline in the EU looks like trouble. What other (rational) explanation is there?

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Old 02-12-2019, 09:47 AM   #2457
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haha, I kept thinking of that scene from Godfather, could not find it.


I think this thread should be renamed "Heaven for Engineers, All Others Join at Your Own Peril"
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Old 02-12-2019, 09:48 AM   #2458
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It has nothing to do with winning/losing from any 'critics' viewpoint. Why change the subject? Is it because you don't have an answer that is positive for Tesla?
Lowering the US price twice in a short time while having limited US supply while they feed the pipeline in the EU looks like trouble. What other (rational) explanation is there?
-ERD50
I view lower prices for EVs (to include Tesla) to be good thing. If you choose to believe that it can only mean one thing (trouble), then I must agree to disagree. I think you will find much more "trouble" in the coming years.
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Old 02-12-2019, 10:07 AM   #2459
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haha, I kept thinking of that scene from Godfather, could not find it.


I think this thread should be renamed "Heaven for Engineers, All Others Join at Your Own Peril"
No one forces anyone to read a thread. There are plenty of subjects here that would bore me to death. I avoid them. It's not so hard. There is even an "ignore thread" option, I think.

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Old 02-12-2019, 10:19 AM   #2460
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I view lower prices for EVs (to include Tesla) to be good thing. If you choose to believe that it can only mean one thing (trouble), then I must agree to disagree. I think you will find much more "trouble" in the coming years.
Again, you avoid the question.

It wasn't about "lower prices for EVs" in general. It was about (now, follow carefully here...) Tesla lowering its US price on an existing configuration of their Model 3, two times, while their US supply is limited while they fill the EU pipeline.

Go back and re-read that, and let it sink in.

If you disagree with that looking bad for Tesla, please explain why. Otherwise, to 'agree to disagree' is just another way of you saying: "No, I do not have a rational explanation for how this could be good for Tesla".

-ERD50
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