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Old 02-12-2019, 09:36 AM   #2461
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No one forces anyone to read a thread. There are plenty of subjects here that would bore me to death. I avoid them. It's not so hard. There is even an "ignore thread" option, I think.

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I would never ignore you ERD50. I jest in a very serious and complicated thread, that is my right. One question, you are an engineer, right?
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Old 02-12-2019, 09:47 AM   #2462
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I would never ignore you ERD50. I jest in a very serious and complicated thread, that is my right. One question, you are an engineer, right?
Oh, you can ignore me if you wish, I don't care (your loss! hah-hah! ).

But you keep commenting on a thread you aren't interest in - that strikes me as strange. Why not just ignore the thread?

"One question, you are an engineer, right?"

As John Prine sang " A question ain't really a question, if you know (or can reasonably guess!) the answer too". OK, I added "reasonably guess", but yes, I am an engineer. Surprise! And a stubborn one - or is that redundant?



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Old 02-12-2019, 09:52 AM   #2463
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But you keep commenting on a thread you aren't interest in - that strikes me as strange. Why not just ignore the thread?
For the same reason folks can't ignore a traffic accident when they drive by?
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Old 02-12-2019, 09:56 AM   #2464
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But you keep commenting on a thread you aren't interest in - that strikes me as strange. Why not just ignore the thread?

-ERD50
Because it's fun and it irritates you.
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Old 02-12-2019, 10:27 AM   #2465
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Because it's fun and it irritates you.
Oh, why didn't you just say so!

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Old 02-12-2019, 10:41 AM   #2466
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Lowering the US price twice in a short time while having limited US supply while they feed the pipeline in the EU looks like trouble. What other (rational) explanation is there?



-ERD50

Maybe because Musk promised to sell the 3 for $35k and the company feels compelled to at least get close to that price.

Tesla is a relatively new company. Maybe they are streamlining their operations as they mature to the point where their costs have decreased and they can afford to sell at a lower price.
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Old 02-12-2019, 10:47 AM   #2467
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From a business strategy point of view (from one who has been there):

Back when I was in the "mill" working as Manager of Engineering, we were selling copper water tubing at a discounted price since demand was there, but so were the competitors. Water tube became a "loss leader" as our brilliant sales guys would say by selling more, "we would make it up on volume". It at that time was called "manufacturing contribution", or namely plant profit before "corporate costs were allocated back to the plant.

Given that the demand is s great for a $35,000 base M3, and at this moment there are no real competitors, why isn't Tesla selling as many of those as they can make and making up the loss of manufacturing contribution with volume? They could easily sell more higher priced cars to cover those M3 losses which is in effect building a baseload to work on over time. Couldn't they? Or maybe sell tons of batteries or solar tiles out of the Buffalo plant?

i mean look what happened to our water tube business and the plant during that time (search "American Brass, Ansonia Plant") and see the results.
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Old 02-12-2019, 11:22 AM   #2468
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Because it's fun and it irritates you.
Don't miss another opportunity for fun.

Another challenge for electric vehicles


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Old 02-12-2019, 11:23 AM   #2469
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Given that the demand is s great for a $35,000 base M3, and at this moment there are no real competitors, why isn't Tesla selling as many of those as they can make and making up the loss of manufacturing contribution with volume? They could easily sell more higher priced cars to cover those M3 losses which is in effect building a baseload to work on over time. Couldn't they? Or maybe sell tons of batteries or solar tiles out of the Buffalo plant?
From what I have read, that is exactly what they are trying to do (build economies of scale). There is a balance, however, because investors want to see profits and a great deal of money is still being poured into infrastructure like the plant in China, repair shops, charging systems, etc...

Give them a little time.
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Old 02-12-2019, 11:23 AM   #2470
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I just saw that in Australia some homeowner was able to reduce his 4000/yr bill down to just 600...a whopping 85% reduction with the leverage of Solar Panels + the Tesla Powerball, and while him and 35k of his neighbors lost power he hadn't noticed until his Powerball texted him it started Backup Mode to alert him.

In sunny climates, this solar + powerball are the way to go.

https://electrek.co/2019/02/12/tesla...cool-heatwave/

If a person got away with a $8k powerball plus a 15k solar system, putting the total system at $22k, the break even point is roughly 6.5 years. This actually makes a lot of sense since you can create flexibility with when to use your stored power during peak usage times. If you calculate out to 30 years you save yourself 80k in energy costs. Not too shabby.
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Old 02-12-2019, 11:30 AM   #2471
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Lowering the US price twice in a short time while having limited US supply while they feed the pipeline in the EU looks like trouble. What other (rational) explanation is there?

-ERD50
Maybe because Musk promised to sell the 3 for $35k and the company feels compelled to at least get close to that price.

Tesla is a relatively new company. Maybe they are streamlining their operations as they mature to the point where their costs have decreased and they can afford to sell at a lower price.
Well, it's an explanation, but I will (respectfully) question whether it is a rational one.

The $35,000 price was always for the base M3. Seems like a stretch to make a connection between that, and lowering the price on the higher level versions.

Occam's Razor is telling me it is far more likely that Tesla has dropped the US price of those higher level models because US demand has dropped. I'm not sure of too many things when it comes to Tesla, there is a lot of uncertainty in a lot of areas, but that one looks pretty plain to me.

edit/add - to your last point. Sure, I agree. And it seems they can't sell the M3 at the lower price yet, Musk has said so. But if the US demand has dropped off for the higher level models, and Tesla can't make the base M3 at a profit (yet), that's concerning.

Maybe they can manage to get the costs down between now and when the EU high-level model demand drops off? But that means lower sales in the US for now, and that just isn't going to look good. I suppose it could all come together at the right time, but I am skeptical.

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Old 02-12-2019, 11:31 AM   #2472
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From what I have read, that is exactly what they are trying to do (build economies of scale). There is a balance, however, because investors want to see profits and a great deal of money is still being poured into infrastructure like the plant in China, repair shops, charging systems, etc...

Give them a little time.
My point was they have a competitive advantage, M3 product wise, "at the moment". I'm not so sure that they are wise trying to build "all cars for all people" concurrently and in different location and countries. Tesla can get over extended and end up losing the ship, and possibly being bought out of bankruptcy, especially if competition increases or the world economy goes into the toilet (even for a short while). The stock would be gone and if they came out of BK, they may be a different animal or under a competitor.

Our strategy with water tube became an albatross eventually and the corporation couldn't retain its market share and competitors from overseas ate us alive. The company is gone and the plants are closed.

https://www.ctpost.com/local/article...ed-7003291.php
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Old 02-12-2019, 11:57 AM   #2473
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My point was they have a competitive advantage, M3 product wise, "at the moment". I'm not so sure that they are wise trying to build "all cars for all people" concurrently and in different location and countries. Tesla can get over extended and end up losing the ship, and possibly being bought out of bankruptcy, especially if competition increases or the world economy goes into the toilet (even for a short while). The stock would be gone and if they came out of BK, they may be a different animal or under a competitor.
I don't necessarily disagree, but we do not know what kind of profit they are making off of the global sales. That may be where the biggest bang for the buck lies, currently. I will defer to their management to sort it out. Production capability is limited, but growing, and manufacturing costs are slowly coming down.

Luckily for Tesla, the competition for a Model 3 (or Model Y) is still another year or two away, so the "moment" is going to be there for, at least, 2019.
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Old 02-12-2019, 12:09 PM   #2474
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Not any surprise that demand has wained. Tesla made big push to drive orders before year end, stealing any future demand into 2018. And on top of that decrease the tax incentive. Seems pretty simple to me.
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Old 02-12-2019, 12:20 PM   #2475
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Maybe because Musk promised to sell the 3 for $35k and the company feels compelled to at least get close to that price.

Tesla is a relatively new company. Maybe they are streamlining their operations as they mature to the point where their costs have decreased and they can afford to sell at a lower price.

The cost of batteries is coming down so Tesla is passing the savings along. I think you can expect to see similar price reductions every year until electric cars are cheaper than internal combustion engines.
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Old 02-12-2019, 12:36 PM   #2476
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The cost of batteries is coming down so Tesla is passing the savings along. I think you can expect to see similar price reductions every year until electric cars are cheaper than internal combustion engines.
But if the demand was there, and we are told competition won't be there for a year or two, the sensible thing to do would be to maximize that gross margin. As a publicly traded company, you might even argue they have a fiduciary responsibility to do just that.

With all the uncertainties around any company that is in this phase, banking a little towards a rainy day would be wise/expected.

If this is due to reductions in battery costs, then two drops in ~ 4 weeks is some pretty crazy pace of improvement. If they continue this pace, they can give M3s away by year end!

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Old 02-12-2019, 03:27 PM   #2477
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I just saw that in Australia some homeowner was able to reduce his 4000/yr bill down to just 600...a whopping 85% reduction with the leverage of Solar Panels + the Tesla Powerball, and while him and 35k of his neighbors lost power he hadn't noticed until his Powerball texted him it started Backup Mode to alert him.

In sunny climates, this solar + powerball are the way to go.

https://electrek.co/2019/02/12/tesla...cool-heatwave/

If a person got away with a $8k powerball plus a 15k solar system, putting the total system at $22k, the break even point is roughly 6.5 years. This actually makes a lot of sense since you can create flexibility with when to use your stored power during peak usage times. If you calculate out to 30 years you save yourself 80k in energy costs. Not too shabby.
Tesla Powerwall I an II are best in class IMO, but good luck with that $8k price, as likely as the $35k model 3
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Old 02-12-2019, 03:51 PM   #2478
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But if the demand was there, and we are told competition won't be there for a year or two, the sensible thing to do would be to maximize that gross margin. As a publicly traded company, you might even argue they have a fiduciary responsibility to do just that.

With all the uncertainties around any company that is in this phase, banking a little towards a rainy day would be wise/expected.

If this is due to reductions in battery costs, then two drops in ~ 4 weeks is some pretty crazy pace of improvement. If they continue this pace, they can give M3s away by year end!

-ERD50

Nope, it is about market share
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Old 02-12-2019, 04:15 PM   #2479
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... If a person got away with a $8k powerball plus a 15k solar system, putting the total system at $22k, the break even point is roughly 6.5 years. This actually makes a lot of sense since you can create flexibility with when to use your stored power during peak usage times. If you calculate out to 30 years you save yourself 80k in energy costs. Not too shabby.
The problem is that lithium batteries wear out with use. At the 30-year mark, its capacity will be a fraction of its original specification.

Here's what Tesla guarantees: 70% of initial storage at the 10-year mark or 37.8 MWh of throughput, whichever occurs first. This applies to the Powerwall 2 with 13.5 kWh of storage. The 37.8 MWh means an average of 10.4 kWh of charge/discharge cycle each day during the 10 years (3650 cycles).

The above sounds reasonable, as that is 77% of the battery capacity cycling, in order to prolong battery life. Many lithium batteries degrade severely with only 500 cycles of 100% charge/discharge.

After 10 years, all bets are off, as the warranty runs out.

And in addition, the cost of the Powerwall is higher than $8K, as described below:

The list price for a new Tesla Powerwall 2.0 battery, which offers twice the storage capacity of the original Powerwall, is $6,700. Supporting hardware adds another $1,100 to the equipment costs, bringing the total to $7,800. Installation can add anywhere from $2,000 to $8,000 to the final bill...



PS. One expects that the battery lasts longer than 10 years, albeit at a reduced capacity even though the warranty expires. Else, the cost of $8K amortized over the 37.8 MWh means a cost of $0.211 to store 1 kWh captured from solar panels. That's not really cheap.
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Old 02-12-2019, 05:53 PM   #2480
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Something Different

I found this interesting. Model 3s shipped to Europe need a charge at the dock, so there is a 300 car charging set-up next to the pier. Charging on a grand scale:

https://insideevs.com/port-300-charg...pe-deliveries/
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