Thoughts on TESLA

[Texas Proud]

To the people attacking ERD... and yes, it is attacking....


I am with him when he is talking numbers... it is math, so no opinions needed... so if you make a claim that you can go 120 miles on $1 or $2 of electricity and conventional wisdom and math would say otherwise then asking for more details is not an attack...


I will give an example on something completely different... when I was much younger I got into a heated argument with one of my friends when he wanted to buy a house.. I already owned one... he kept telling me that the net cost was going to X based on the savings he was going to get for his taxes and interest... he believed the spiel that the salesman was giving...


I tried repeatedly to say that he was NOT going to save as much money as they were telling him... I would know as I had done my tax return a few times with the deductions... first, he never took into account the standard deduction he already had.. next he put the savings and 100% of his variable tax bracket when in fact he would be dropping down into a lower bracket on most of that deduction...


The actual savings was probably half of what he thought... and I know he was surprised when doing his taxes and the savings did not show up... he was sold a pig in a poke and was upset... he had to change his lifestyle a bit to come up with the extra money he thought he would have but did not...


Now, if he were sold the tax savings at the real rate using the exact same info he would have been happy instead of upset.. so using real numbers can make a difference between someone being happy with what they purchased or someone thinking hey were taken...

[Ready]

I have no interest in convincing anyone to buy an EV. I was simply sharing my experience with my vehicle and somehow it got nitpicked to death with what felt like squabbling over whether it’s $1 or $2. So I’m not going to provide any more opinions on the cost of driving it. I provided the data. ERD50, or anyone, can use it if it interests them, ignore it if it doesn’t.

I’ll provide one more data point from my morning drive in case anyone is interested.

6B14FC9D-752F-4378-9078-A4DC6220870E.jpg

[Sunset]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ready I have no interest in convincing anyone to buy an EV. I was simply sharing my experience with my vehicle and somehow it got nitpicked to death with what felt like squabbling over whether it’s $1 or $2. So I’m not going to provide any more opinions on the cost of driving it. I provided the data. ERD50, or anyone, can use it if it interests them, ignore it if it doesn’t. I’ll provide one more data point from my morning drive in case anyone is interested. .....

I appreciate your telling of your experience with the Tesla. It's pretty interesting to me as I've considered getting an electric car, but cannot justify due to our style of driving.

We only do 2 kinds of driving now: limited driving in city, and at 3,000 miles it doesn't matter how big a gas burner we drive the cost is still low.

We also do multi-thousand mile trips with second vehicle, and there I do like the quick fill-up anywhere offered by gas. Plus we haul a lot of stuff, so need a large vehicle.

[MichaelB]

Let’s remember to debate ideas, not attack other members. Some may benefit from judicious use of the ignore function. Any more personal attacks and the thread is doomed, which would be unfortunate after more than 3400 posts.

[Running_Man]

Well today's presentation is interesting,
I think the idea is, since demand is slowing we will build cars for lease and lease them without depreciation. Spin off Tesla Taxi, who will buy the leased cars from TESLA and you are able to capitalize all production costs into the cars so there will be no losses, only income from the leases. Will need about 25 billion in equity raise to make this happen over the next 2 years. Elon showed a slide with 1,000,000 miles useful life of battery and car, generating 30K annually income per car.

The earnings and future sales announcement must be terrible based on the presentation, but if he is able to raise 25 billion then this operation can continue. This will of course dilute present stock owners but is the only way I see this can work out over the long run. Tesla bonds are holding at 86 as long as they hold up the plan could work.

[NW-Bound]

For Tesla to operate a fleet of driverless taxis, the car's autopilot must be Level 5.

This is highly unlikely to be achieved in another year or two. Musk said all the hardware was there, and only "software improvement" was needed. He said that when introducing the original Model 3. I see no reason to believe him now.

Here's a pundit opinion on this: https://www.forbes.com/sites/lanceel.../#45f3ff954c78.

[Ready]

I don’t see a driverless Tesla network happening any time soon. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Tesla operated ride sharing business competing with Uber, but with people in the driver’s seat operating exclusively Tesla vehicles. Maybe the vehicles would still be operating semi-autonomously but definitely nothing close to Level 5.

[aja8888]

Looks like a Tesla exploded in a parking lot in Shanghai and the incident was caught on video (here):

"A video posted on Weibo yesterday showed a Tesla Model S parked in a garage in Shanghai starting to emit smoke. Shortly after, the vehicle exploded and burst into flames. ������ @elonmusk @Tesla https://t.co/f7QEEldul6 pic.twitter.com/gTgZ4zniCd

— SHINE (@shanghaidaily) April 22, 2019"

Tesla is investigating.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by aja8888 Looks like a Tesla exploded in a parking lot in Shanghai and the incident was caught on video (here): "A video posted on Weibo yesterday showed a Tesla Model S parked in a garage in Shanghai starting to emit smoke. Shortly after, the vehicle exploded and burst into flames. ������ @elonmusk @Tesla https://t.co/f7QEEldul6 pic.twitter.com/gTgZ4zniCd — SHINE (@shanghaidaily) April 22, 2019" Tesla is investigating.

That is very peculiar. Usually a lithium battery only explodes when getting abused, not while resting. Must be some kind of hardware failures, for example the electronics to protect the battery and keep it inside the operating envelope. Well, things do fail.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ready I don’t see a driverless Tesla network happening any time soon. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Tesla operated ride sharing business competing with Uber, but with people in the driver’s seat operating exclusively Tesla vehicles. Maybe the vehicles would still be operating semi-autonomously but definitely nothing close to Level 5.

Yet, driverless is what Musk claimed.

Tesla can claim many achievements and has done many "firsts", but it appears to me that Musk is now financially backed in a corner, and has to keep making exaggerated claims to keep the company alive.

[Running_Man]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound That is very peculiar. Usually a lithium battery only explodes when getting abused, not while resting. Must be some kind of hardware failures, for example the electronics to protect the battery and keep it inside the operating envelope. Well, things do fail. Yet, driverless is what Musk claimed. Tesla can claim many achievements and has done many "firsts", but it appears to me that Musk is now financially backed in a corner, and has to keep making exaggerated claims to keep the company alive.

I am presuming but I think it is logical that Panasonic has told TESLA they must take the batteries they have contracted for, Elon can see through his sales figures they are short of that requirement, by a lot. In order to build cars he will lease them, make the arguement no depreciation is necessary and work on the self driving technology so that in two years it appears possible.

Then he has to pray the quality of the TESLA cars holds up over the years to make this a reality.

If you are buying the stock this is the plan, ELON MUSK stated last night the leasing program as a means of building of taxi fleet would take up all of their operating cash flow for the next 2 years.

[ls99]

A new study shows electric cars are more polluting than diesel vehicles.


"When CO2 emissions linked to the production of batteries and the German energy mix - in which coal still plays an important role - are taken into consideration, electric vehicles emit 11% to 28% more than their diesel counterparts, according to the study, presented on Wednesday at the Ifo Institute in Munich."
"The CO2 given off to produce the electricity that powers such vehicles also needs to be factored in, they say.

When all these factors are considered, each Tesla emits 156 to 180 grams of CO2 per kilometre, which is more than a comparable diesel vehicle produced by the German company Mercedes, for example.

The German researchers, therefore, take issue with the fact that European officials view electric vehicles as zero-emission ones."
CESifo Group Munich - ifo Schnelldienst: Electric Vehicles are not a Panacea for Climate Change



The Brussels Times - Electric vehicles emit more CO2 than diesel ones, German study shows

[bobandsherry]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ls99 A new study shows electric cars are more polluting than diesel vehicles.

Heh, seems this question has been asked several times, especially by ERD50, in regards to just how clean EV is. Guess this answers that question. I'm sure there are counterpoints to be made too.

[bobandsherry]

So I'm gone a week for vacay and see that with good news of 1,000,000 robotaxis that Musk shared the stock still sits at a low. Seems Musk just likes using the 1,000,000 figure. Now 1,000,000 robotaxis and each of those will last 1,000,000 miles. Guess if ya going to exaggerate you might as well make it a big number. Then hellt just laugh it off later by saying you didn't think that was a serious figure, did ya.

[Chuckanut]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ls99 "When CO2 emissions linked to the production of batteries and the German energy mix - in which coal still plays an important role - are taken into consideration, electric vehicles emit 11% to 28% more than their diesel counterparts, according to the study, presented on Wednesday at the Ifo Institute in Munich." "The CO2 given off to produce the electricity that powers such vehicles also needs to be factored in, they say. When all these factors are considered, each Tesla emits 156 to 180 grams of CO2 per kilometre, which is more than a comparable diesel vehicle produced by the German company Mercedes, for example. The German researchers, therefore, take issue with the fact that European officials view electric vehicles as zero-emission ones." CESifo Group Munich - ifo Schnelldienst: Electric Vehicles are not a Panacea for Climate Change The Brussels Times - Electric vehicles emit more CO2 than diesel ones, German study shows

I would not be surprised if the study is correct. I have found the claim that EVs are 'emission free' to be bogus. The energy to charge the batteries has to come from somewhere.

But, the same skepticism makes me want to see the numbers used to come to their conclusion. For example, they look at the CO2 emitted to create the batteries for the EV. But, do they also look at the CO2 emitted to make a diesel engine? The Devil, as we well know, is in the details.

[ls99]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut I would not be surprised if the study is correct. I have found the claim that EVs are 'emission free' to be bogus. The energy to charge the batteries has to come from somewhere. But, the same skepticism makes me want to see the numbers used to come to their conclusion. For example, they look at the CO2 emitted to create the batteries for the EV. But, do they also look at the CO2 emitted to make a diesel engine? The Devil, as we well know, is in the details.

I am not fluent in German. Am reasonably certain that the aspects of diesel fuel production and emissions was examined.


The authors and their contact info is public:
Contact

Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Hans-Werner Sinn

ifo Institute
Phone: +49(0)899224-1279
Fax: +49(0)899224-1901
Email: sinn@ifo.de


Suspect they are inundated with questions, though you may add yours to the quue.


The paper, 54 pages or so, in German:http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/sd-...2019-04-25.pdf

[Mr. Tightwad]

I predict some people are going to have a very hard time accepting the changes in vehicular transportation that are on the way.

Confirmation bias is amusing to observe.

[Ready]

I’m certainly not qualified to challenge an article like that one. But my experience in general with articles like these is that the author first chooses their position, and then looks for facts that support their position. Every country is going to have their own issues with how “clean” their electricity production is. I’m sure there are countries where it is so bad that you’d be better off driving gasoline powered cars.

[Totoro]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ls99 I am not fluent in German. Am reasonably certain that the aspects of diesel fuel production and emissions was examined.

Same here (not fluent), I seem to gather that they use the 2018 energy mix though. That's not intellectually fair: electricity based emissions are dropping fast, and all these EV cars are 'upgraded' as time goes by.

Within three years 24 out of 84 coal plants will be closed for example.

[ls99]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Totoro Same here (not fluent), I seem to gather that they use the 2018 energy mix though. That's not intellectually fair: electricity based emissions are dropping fast, and all these EV cars are 'upgraded' as time goes by. Within three years 24 out of 84 coal plants will be closed for example.

Under Dieselmotor, they discuss using the Mercedes 220 D, with engine OM 654 as reference diesel engine. That has not been made AFIK in a long time. Probably 20or more years old or more design.

[eroscott]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Tightwad He is trying to exhaust you. Anyone who thinks differently than him (Euroscott, McNeil, you or myself) he nitpicks, attempts to mock, and tries to annoy them so they will go away. He's been doing it for a long time. Whenever anyone says anything positive about EV's he does this.

Bingo. I'm sure he has driven many people away from this forum. On other forums I'm on and have moderated these people are dealt with in a different manner.