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Old 04-18-2017, 07:26 PM   #61
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Would have liked to read the full article, but after the first page they want me to register. Not that interested. Though I am inclined to agree with the much hype by Tesla theory.
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:04 PM   #62
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After buying a model S a year ago, I purchased the stock at 170. The car is nothing short as amazing. The stock has rose to the point where I made enough money to pay for the car. I ordered a second one (model 3 ) for my daughter.

The stock is ridiculously high and the company has never made money, however I believe in the long term prospect of the company. Almost everyone who owns a tesla, believes that these electric cars are the future

Also Elon will always bring new hype for the company with his exhaustive new goals which are typically behind schedule.

Having said this, I will sell some of my stock, because I believe the stock will have a major correction after the model 3 comes out (it will be late and plagued with problems but great in the end ).

My plan is to buy more after this correction
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:37 PM   #63
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Supercharging time is a small impact for me. It is nice to get out and walk around or eat for a while periodically. Slow down, don't drive 12 hours+ non-stop, and feel better when you get there. That's my speed now. My Model X has a 300 mile range. I don't have to fill up much more frequently than a gas car.

But the real clincher for me is Autopilot, which is fancy cruise control that will slow down for the car in front of you, and autosteer which steers for you. Autosteer needs a few updates before I'll rely on it much, it still acts a little drunk. Though I can use it. The traffic-aware cruise control makes driving very easy. And eventually I'll at least have some features of full self driving, if not a fully autonomous car. I'd never have taken a long road trip without these driving aids.

Locally, home charging and no engine problems with short trips to gum up the engine or long periods of disuse.

Long distance, it does much of the driving for you.

And for both, the most responsive accelerator pedal you can buy. Not so much 0-60, though that too, but no delay for the engine to start turning faster, the transmission to select a lower gear, and the turbo to spin up. It's a great performance car. And the best gadget I have! With future software downloaded updates still to come!

Current entry level is about $35k without Autopilot. Chevy Bolt now or Tesla Model 3 later.

The current Tesla's are obviously not for everyone. But I think electric cars are just about ready to take over from gas.
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Old 04-19-2017, 12:15 AM   #64
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... Also, how long does it take to fully charge nearly drained batteries at a supercharger station?
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... It takes 20-30 minutes to get enough range to reach the next supercharger (150-170 miles). The charge slows down as you charge, so a full charge (300 miles) takes about an hour and 10 minutes.
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Thanks, your answers pretty much answered my questions and is about what I expected, except that it took so long for a full charge at a supercharging station...
A quick look on the Web shows that a Tesla battery capacity ranges from 75 kWh to 100 kWh depending on the option. That's the daily energy usage at my home in the Southwest in the summer, where a 5-ton AC runs seemingly non-stop.

To stuff the energy usage of my home in 24 hours into a battery in less than 1/20th the time requires 20 times the power. One Tesla in fast-charging mode sucks up as much power as 20 homes in the SW in midday. That's impressive, even though a charge time of more than 1 hour does feel very long.

All this underlines the fact that cars are real energy hogs, whether one runs on gasoline or electricity.

As for me, I do not mind owning a short-range EV like the LEAF to run errands. I do not do long-range roadtrips anymore, except by RV. And it may be a very long time until a battery large enough to propel an RV drops in price to make it economically feasible. Such a battery would be a few hundred thousand dollars now. And how long would it last?
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Old 04-19-2017, 12:17 AM   #65
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After buying a model S a year ago, I purchased the stock at 170. The car is nothing short as amazing. The stock has rose to the point where I made enough money to pay for the car. I ordered a second one (model 3 ) for my daughter.

The stock is ridiculously high and the company has never made money, however I believe in the long term prospect of the company. Almost everyone who owns a tesla, believes that these electric cars are the future

Also Elon will always bring new hype for the company with his exhaustive new goals which are typically behind schedule.

Having said this, I will sell some of my stock, because I believe the stock will have a major correction after the model 3 comes out (it will be late and plagued with problems but great in the end ).

My plan is to buy more after this correction

Man... how many shares did you buy And what % of your portfolio....

I would never put much money in a flyer like this... this will either be a successful company (still not worth what it is selling for today) or go down in flames....

I think they are trying to get into too many things right now.... they have not proven a single one yet.... electrics might be the wave of the future... but I do not think Tesla will be the #1 company in this field.... if for some reason they are able to make electric much cheaper and the masses want them I am sure that Ford, GM, Toyota, Honda etc. etc. will be putting their massive balance sheets behind producing these kind of cars and will still be selling many times more than Tesla....
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Old 04-19-2017, 08:24 AM   #66
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When my folks lived in Dallas I'd go there every year. It's about a 11.5 hour drive with 1-2 stops for gas/food. It's a long day, but I could leave ~ 6 in the morning and be there for dinner.
For this use case, long distance in one go, electric will not be viable for a very long while, maybe never. A self flying plane might even be cheaper than electric by then. Or multi-hop selfdriving (aka: the bus).

Most driving in the world isn't of this type though, and you could also rent an ICE vehicle if you only do it a few times a year. Especially in Asia and Europe. The USA is not the best place for electric to thrive with its city sprawl, spread out families and low fuel taxes. Think Berlin, Beijing, Paris, not Los Angeles or Dallas.

My own maximum driving distance is about 200 miles, which I do quite frequently (once a month). As soon as I can hit that number with decent economics in an electric car, I'll switch and never look back, probably about five to ten years down the line.

I will be surprised if that car will be a Tesla though. They are the pioneers but I doubt they will be the winners. What does winning even look like? I actually fully expect that the brand will be sold off to one of the car majors somewhere down the road, with Tesla focusing on the energy systems.
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Old 04-19-2017, 10:37 AM   #67
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I will be surprised if that car will be a Tesla though. They are the pioneers but I doubt they will be the winners.
Isn't there a saying about how the pioneers take the arrows and the settlers take the land. Which leaves the interesting question of who will play the part of the natives and just get taken.
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Old 04-19-2017, 10:38 AM   #68
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Supercharging time is a small impact for me. It is nice to get out and walk around or eat for a while periodically. Slow down, don't drive 12 hours+ non-stop, and feel better when you get there. That's my speed now. My Model X has a 300 mile range. I don't have to fill up much more frequently than a gas car.
Thanks for reminding us that a car is a life style decision. To each his own.
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Old 04-19-2017, 10:49 AM   #69
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... Which leaves the interesting question of who will play the part of the natives and just get taken.
Easy. The people who bought the stock.
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Old 04-19-2017, 11:07 AM   #70
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Easy. The people who bought the stock.
Perhaps. But, I was thinking more in the line of the switch from film photography to digital photography. Lots of natives got taken there including the "Great Yellow Father".
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Old 04-19-2017, 12:09 PM   #71
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Perhaps. But, I was thinking more in the line of the switch from film photography to digital photography. Lots of natives got taken there including the "Great Yellow Father".
Interesting question. IMO the digital photography situation is a little different. Kodak's market disappeared. The market for cars will not disappear and, in fact, changing the locomotion gadget will leave large parts of the car and its supporting infrastructure unchanged. The need for service will change a bit but the need for a dealer network may not.

I think the self-driving revolution will have bigger impact. For example, OTR trucks will be operating nearly 24x7 because the need for driver rest time is moot. So, for constant freight volume, the market for OTR tractors and trailers is cut almost in half. In cars, to the extent that self-driving leads to shared car schemes, the market for cars will also be significantly cut, particularly at the high end.

But it is true that radical technological change is usually bad for incumbents. Have you used a Friden calculator lately? So, I guess we'll have to wait and see how this turns out.
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Old 04-19-2017, 02:18 PM   #72
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SR 101, and square roots too!

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Old 04-20-2017, 04:10 AM   #73
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But it is true that radical technological change is usually bad for incumbents.
It's usually bad for investors, challengers and innovators too.

Facebook wasn't the first social network - there were literally hundreds of others. Myspace was the most famous pioneer there who got shot. Google wasn't the first dominant search engine. Altavista was. Netscape got eaten by Microsoft giving away internet explorer.

Aviation: in the first hundred years hardly any airline made a profit for investors. Railroads sort of the same. Commodore (of C-64 fame) and many others, all gone in the dust. We all know the Apple resurrection story. The thing to remember is to be resurrected you have to be (as good as) dead.

I'd argue that the norm as innovator or inventor is failure, even moreso than for the incumbents since they have little cushion. An incumbent can reinvent and pivot itself with the cash coming out of the legacy business. Most new kids don't have that luxury.
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Thoughts on TESLA
Old 04-20-2017, 08:37 AM   #74
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Thoughts on TESLA

Tesla is a great car, but not ready for prime time and not profitable. Rule # 1 for me to buy a stock is for it to be profitable. Great technology may be adapted for use by others with ability to make money, but Tesla is too risky and will fall hard when people realize the stock price momentum doesn't pay employees forever, and investors want profits.
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Old 04-20-2017, 11:00 AM   #75
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It's usually bad for investors, challengers and innovators too.

Google wasn't the first dominant search engine. Altavista was.
AltaVista is actually kinda of relevant here. It was created by folks at DEC. In its day, AltaVista was great. Way better than the alternatives.

DEC revolutionized computers with their minicomputers, but squandered that in many ways.

The challenge for the automakers is to not go the way of DEC.
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Old 04-20-2017, 03:50 PM   #76
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In Toronto, if you can't plug in at home I wouldn't recommend an EV, but a PHEV could be a good option.

Heavy AC use will shorten the range, but not nearly as much as the heater in cold weather states.

My wife loves getting into a warm car in the winter
Plugging in at home is no issue. I put two 220 lines into the garage when we did a reno 12 years ago - anticipating the day!!

I think preheating the car in the garage while it is plugged in would be a great idea. Turn the blower and all the seat heaters on to get it nice and toasty! And don't even have to worry about CO poisoning.
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Old 04-20-2017, 04:05 PM   #77
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Car makers see the handwriting on the wall. Most (all?) of them have been making hybrid cars, if not EVs, in order to learn the technology. So, they all know how to make one. For EVs to be more popular, the battery cost needs to go down, and its life extended.

Musk has been building that huge battery factory in Nevada, but the battery cells are actually made by Panasonic. I know little about battery technology, so do not know if Panasonic has any secret sauce that other battery makers do not have. If not, when the Li-Ion battery can be made cheap enough there are bigger guys with deep pockets who would jump into this market. For example, so many Chinese companies are now making smartphones, and many I have never heard of.
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Old 04-21-2017, 06:00 AM   #78
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Speaking of China, watch BYD. 25% owned by Berkshire, no less.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYD_Company
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Old 04-21-2017, 07:50 AM   #79
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Guess they are/will be plagued with recalls too.

Tesla to recall 53,000 cars over parking brake issue | Reuters
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Old 04-21-2017, 08:09 AM   #80
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SR 101, and square roots too!

Not funny... This guy spent two years doing complete (manual) TY/LY/Budgets with that baby back in 1969/70 for 700 stores. Every single damned number had to be manually input... and click, click,click,click,click,click,click,click,click... and then to write them into huge spread sheets.

That was when the computer room was huge, everyone dressed in white, big tape reels in glass cases flat against the wall. IBM Cards in stacks three feet high, and everything running full speed 24/7. A Space Odyssey... that few people ever saw.

In 1971, I was the first person in my company to get a hand calculator... A Sharp Elsi8 as I recall, bought at a discount from my neighbor's business equipment store for $500. Used to race the ladies in the accounting department who were still using comptometers. Now, what 50 people were doing as a full time job, is being handled by a 21 year old kid with a laptop.

Ah yes............
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