Thoughts on TESLA

[NW-Bound]

The late Sir Templeton shorted some dot-com stocks in early 2000, and made $85M for himself when he was no longer managing other people's money. He did not need the money, but I guess he could not stand it.

His timing was impeccable. He never had to cover his shorts. They all went bankrupt.

I still remember his interview then. He said that he was helping people. When they wanted to buy, he sold to them.

 

[NYEXPAT]

An article about NIO (the Tesla Killer) of China. Basically states that Tesla's largest shareholder (not including EM) today purchased an 11.4 % stake in this company.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/09/chinese-ev-maker-nio-shares-jump-22percent-after-tesla-investor-takes-stake.html

As I posted earlier in this thread, I bought many thousands of shares on the IPO and sold the next day at about 70% profit! The stock has traded lower everyday since, until today!

 

[Lakewood90712]

Looks like we have found support at $250 if it is holding during a -3% market day.

 

[aja8888]

What happened to Oneill225?

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

I think he's waiting for the stock to go up to comment further.

 

[bobandsherry]

Looks like we have found support at $250 if it is holding during a -3% market day.

Yeah, and still holding above this morning with market sell off. But if it breaks $250 a drop of another 10% to $225 can be in the cards. Tesla hit $280 in 2015, then dropped to $150 (46%) before the bounce, and $279 in 2014 to $185 (33%) again before a bounce, so $360 to $225 before a bounce falls in the middle.

 

[Lakewood90712]

Still holding at $250 and change, and even up a few pennies today.

 

[ERD50]

Still holding at $250 and change, and even up a few pennies today.

I'm a bit surprised how well it held up the past few days while the market tanked. And today, the market is up, and so far TSLA is up more than the market. So it sure does seem to have some support at this level, for now.

Of course, I have no idea what that means for the future, but our very quiet dip-buyers still have a long way to go to turn a profit.

Aside from recent stock movement, I'm curious how their Semi Truck will do. The specs and cost and other features were much better than I anticipated. But two big issues - can they deliver (not a good track record here), and those "Mega Chargers".

A Mega Charger requires a lot of infrastructure. That adds a lot to the cost of the Semi. I have not seen costs yet, but it appears that one Mega Charger would be the equivalent of ten Super Chargers.That seems like a big investment compared to the diesel tanks they already have, or have access to.

-ERD50

 

[njhowie]

Willing to eat a plate of crow, it won't be first time I've been wrong.
.
.
.
Or even David Ackman who took $3 billion loss on Valeant (aka Bausch Health) he bought in at $196 and sold at $11 (that's just really wrong).

Bill Ackman

Plate of crow served.

 

[bobandsherry]

Bill Ackman

Plate of crow served.

We are friends, I call him David

 

[aja8888]

We are friends, I call him David

I'd love to know what his investors call him (or maybe not)!

 

[bobandsherry]

I'd love to know what his investors call him (or maybe not)!

Heh - I think I heard some call him Dick.

 

[jazz4cash]

Bill Ackman



Plate of crow served.

Two plates of crow for Valeant and Herbalife.

 

[ERD50]

https://www.engadget.com/2018/10/12/tesla-tax-incentive-timeline/

Tesla's full tax incentive ends on October 15th
You'll also have to take delivery by December 31st, 2018.

It will be interesting to see if orders are affected by this after Oct 15th. At that point the incentive goes from $7,500 to $3,750. Not really that big a deal on a $50,000 vehicle, so maybe not such a big effect. But I also felt that way about the $7,500 on the $100,000 models. Such a waste of taxpayer dollars - those cars would have sold anyway.

-ERD50

 

[bobandsherry]

Two plates of crow for Valeant and Herbalife.

He was poking at me for typing Bill Ackman, David Ackman. But Ackman has definitely picked some winners, people actually pay him for advise.

 

[bobandsherry]

https://www.engadget.com/2018/10/12/tesla-tax-incentive-timeline/



It will be interesting to see if orders are affected by this after Oct 15th. At that point the incentive goes from $7,500 to $3,750. Not really that big a deal on a $50,000 vehicle, so maybe not such a big effect. But I also felt that way about the $7,500 on the $100,000 models. Such a waste of taxpayer dollars - those cars would have sold anyway.

-ERD50

Even though it's $50K price, people still just never like to turn down free money. May stir up a flurry of orders before the cut off.

 

[ERD50]

Even though it's $50K price, people still just never like to turn down free money. May stir up a flurry of orders before the cut off.

I assume the orders/backlog are already there, the reservations? OK, maybe that's just the model 3?

Hmmmm, I think this is really more in Tesla's hands than customers. The customers knew in general that the credit was getting cut, but they would not be able to pick an exact date. With Tesla announcing this so close to the actual date, I don't think customers can do anything about it now. I suppose if they don't get a pre-15th date, they could cancel, but I doubt many would do that at this point over $3,750.

More likely to affect future orders, especially when the credit drops to zero and when/if they really get down to a $35,000 model.

-ERD50

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

The credit won't be zero until 2020. Also state rebates are unaffected.

A senator from Wyoming just put out a bill to eliminate the federal incentives for all EV's in 2019.

There's another bill floating around that extends the federal credit to a time limit, as opposed to the 200,000 sales figure.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

That credit being zero in 2020 applies to Tesla, I meant.

 

[ERD50]

That credit being zero in 2020 applies to Tesla, I meant.

Right, there was a second cut that I forgot about. From Tesla:

Federal Tax Credit For Vehicles Delivered
$7,500 On or before December 31, 2018
$3,750 January 1 to June 30, 2019
$1,875 July 1 to December 31, 2019

-ERD50

 

[Lakewood90712]

I assume the orders/backlog are already there, the reservations? OK, maybe that's just the model 3?

Hmmmm, I think this is really more in Tesla's hands than customers. The customers knew in general that the credit was getting cut, but they would not be able to pick an exact date. With Tesla announcing this so close to the actual date, I don't think customers can do anything about it now. I suppose if they don't get a pre-15th date, they could cancel, but I doubt many would do that at this point over $3,750.

More likely to affect future orders, especially when the credit drops to zero and when/if they really get down to a $35,000 model.

-ERD50

At the peak, approx 400,000 reservations with $1,000 payments were pending. So far about 100k cars delivered. The rest of that $300 mil. will be either refunded or applied to purchase . Don't know how many have canceled reservations and received refunds. I suspect many were people thinking they could get delivery and flip the car at a profit when demand was extreme early on.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Cancelation rate was 23%

 

[njhowie]

Bill introduced to Congress by Senator John Barrasso, a Republican from Wyoming to:

1. End EV tax credits
2. Tax alternative fuel vehicles a Federal Highway user fee

A bill to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to terminate the credit for new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicles and to provide for a Federal Highway user fee on alternative fuel vehicles.

Barrasso has received $498,000 in contributions from the oil and gas industries over the past 5 years.

The Federal Highway user fee looks to be a way to collect what they are losing in gasoline taxes from these vehicles.

https://electrek.co/2018/10/10/republican-bill-end-federal-tax-credit-for-electric-car/

 

[bobandsherry]

Wow, Tesla managed to keep from breaking $250 and now surged over past couple of days, up over 6.5% today to $276. Another $20 or more and we'll probably see fanboys comes out of the woodwork again.

Here’s how much Tesla lost in market cap now that Musk’s SEC settlement is approved

Tesla has lost about $12 billion in market cap in the wake of Musk’s fateful tweet

How'd you like to be the sucker that bought in at $387 after Musk's tweet?

 

[NW-Bound]

Bill Ackman

Plate of crow served.

Two plates of crow for Valeant and Herbalife.

I have not had crow, but is it kind of like chicken?

Most likely, darker meat and tougher. Fried may not be good, but stewed is probably more edible.