Join Early Retirement Today
Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-02-2018, 04:53 PM   #1021
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
JoeWras's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 11,701
Over a 1,000 posts. Wow!
JoeWras is offline  
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 10-02-2018, 04:53 PM   #1022
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: SoCal
Posts: 1,286
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobandsherry View Post
Sometimes the devil's in the details and not the headline:



Most likely "diverted" as sales were so minor in US..... But also interesting to note:



Ouch!
I drove a Bolt once...I thought it was a decent vehicle...People think the seats are extremely uncomfortable, I didn't have any problems with them...My reason for not being interested in it was that it seemed "small", meaning a collision would be a bad experience...I felt the same way driving a BMW I3..just a bit small and unsafe in a collision...between the two I would pick the Bolt..the 2019 I3 range was increased to 153
Mr. Tightwad is offline  
Old 10-02-2018, 04:54 PM   #1023
Moderator Emeritus
aja8888's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Conroe, Texas
Posts: 18,642
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeWras View Post
Over a 1,000 posts. Wow!
This is taking the place of the divorce/sex/psycho/family problems threads.
__________________
*********Go Astros!*********
aja8888 is offline  
Old 10-02-2018, 04:58 PM   #1024
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: SoCal
Posts: 1,286
Quote:
Originally Posted by aja8888 View Post
This is taking the place of the divorce/sex/psycho/family problems threads.
That one sounds better already
Mr. Tightwad is offline  
Old 10-02-2018, 05:00 PM   #1025
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
OldShooter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 10,331
Quote:
Originally Posted by oneill225 View Post
A little pessimistic, but hard to argue with.
Thank you. I'll give you another one:

A good company is not necessarily a good investment. Conversely, a bad company is not necessarily a bad investment.

I have not studied this thread, but constantly seeing it in the new posts list caused me to click on the last page. It seems to be a debate about whether Tesla is a good company or not. Really the wrong debate IMHO. Good companies are frequently bad investments because optimists and zealots have baked every possible future good thing into the stock price. Any hiccup can knock that house of cards down and even sans hiccup, there may be limited upside to the price. (Mr. Efficient Market Hypothesis, Eugene Fama, would argue with this, and Richard Thaler would be right there telling him he was wrong. I'm with Thaler.)

Jeremy Segal, in "Stocks for the Long Run" illustrates this by comparing the performance of dull old RJ Reynolds with exciting IBM beginning IIRC in the 1950s as computers took off. IBM did turn out to be an extremely successful company for a long time, but as an investment it was handily outrun by RJR because IBM's price at the beginning was driven by the optimists and zealots. Segal refers to this as "the growth trap."

In contrast, Ben Graham taught Warren Buffet to invest in companies that they called "cigar butts." Typically these were companies that were so unliked in the market that they sold well below their liquidation value, ideally holding a lot of cash. No optimists or zealots to support the price, IOW. Bad companies that were good investments.

Only a rear-view mirror will be able to say where Tesla ends up.
OldShooter is offline  
Old 10-02-2018, 05:02 PM   #1026
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
nash031's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Bonita (San Diego)
Posts: 1,795
Quote:
Originally Posted by oneill225 View Post
Ferrari, BMW, Maserati, Jaguar, Volvo, Etal. When will they realize that they have no future?
Do you own stock in all of those as well?
__________________
"So we beat to our own drummer in the sun;
We ask for nobody's permission to run.
I just wanna live in a world like that;
Now I'm gonna live in a world like that!" - World Like That, O.A.R.
nash031 is offline  
Old 10-02-2018, 05:08 PM   #1027
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldShooter View Post
... Jeremy Segal, in "Stocks for the Long Run" illustrates this by comparing the performance of dull old RJ Reynolds with exciting IBM beginning IIRC in the 1950s as computers took off. IBM did turn out to be an extremely successful company for a long time, but as an investment it was handily outrun by RJR because IBM's price at the beginning was driven by the optimists and zealots. Segal refers to this as "the growth trap."...
Tesla is still trying to justify its market cap. If it succeeds, it can still go up a bit more. If it fails, there's hell to pay.

I am not buying. I'd rather sell, but am too chicken.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)

"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is offline  
Old 10-02-2018, 05:09 PM   #1028
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
nash031's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Bonita (San Diego)
Posts: 1,795
Quote:
Originally Posted by oneill225 View Post
Electric or not, Nash031 won't be buying one. Therefore, according to him/her, they cannot survive.
First, please point out where I said anywhere that Tesla "won't survive."

Second, please point out where I've ever said I won't buy electric. I've actually said that I considered buying a Model S, but had concerns that have not yet been alleviated both on the expense front - I have a toddler and another on the way and am not yet FI, so I can't justify $75-95,000 on a car no matter the quality or features - and on the long term support and viability of the company.

Tesla may well "survive", but if I'm putting that kind of money into a car, I want to *know* that the service, parts, support, and charging infrastructure is here to stay, and I don't want it to be compromised.

You've gone a long way to put words into my mouth for whatever reason. My next car purchase may well be a hybrid. It will likely not be an electric because my future employment (and therefore commute and travel requirements) are unknown. I have driven across the country multiple times for work in the last two years and will again in 2019. Electric is not practical for me right now. That does not - in any way - mean I am critical of electric cars or even Teslas themselves on the whole. Quite the opposite, actually. I have been to the local Tesla showroom on at least a dozen occasions to admire the vehicles.

Please address me directly with future criticisms, rather than intentionally misrepresenting my opinions to others on the forum. Thank you.

Edit to add: On a side note, there is a thread around here where I'm very much in the minority about a long-term equity investment that I made. Believe me, it is tempting to trumpet its recent gains to all of the naysayers who told me, in essence, that I was dumb. I get being on a relative island in these discussions, where it can feel like people are ganging up on you. I do not intend to do that to you or Mr. Tightwad. I do find his name ironic, and I do not think Tesla is a good long term investment, and since I don't day trade, I don't follow the ups and downs of volatile stocks like Tesla.

Our opinions on electric cars as the future are very much in line. Our long term outlooks on Tesla differ. I do not think Tesla is a value stock right now; I think it is a purely speculative one. There's nothing wrong with putting money there, so long as you recognize it for what it is.
__________________
"So we beat to our own drummer in the sun;
We ask for nobody's permission to run.
I just wanna live in a world like that;
Now I'm gonna live in a world like that!" - World Like That, O.A.R.
nash031 is offline  
Old 10-02-2018, 05:29 PM   #1029
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: SoCal
Posts: 1,286
Quote:
Originally Posted by nash031 View Post
First, please point out where I said anywhere that Tesla "won't survive."

Second, please point out where I've ever said I won't buy electric. I've actually said that I considered buying a Model S, but had concerns that have not yet been alleviated both on the expense front - I have a toddler and another on the way and am not yet FI, so I can't justify $75-95,000 on a car no matter the quality or features - and on the long term support and viability of the company.

Tesla may well "survive", but if I'm putting that kind of money into a car, I want to *know* that the service, parts, support, and charging infrastructure is here to stay, and I don't want it to be compromised.

You've gone a long way to put words into my mouth for whatever reason. My next car purchase may well be a hybrid. It will likely not be an electric because my future employment (and therefore commute and travel requirements) are unknown. I have driven across the country multiple times for work in the last two years and will again in 2019. Electric is not practical for me right now. That does not - in any way - mean I am critical of electric cars or even Teslas themselves on the whole. Quite the opposite, actually. I have been to the local Tesla showroom on at least a dozen occasions to admire the vehicles.

Please address me directly with future criticisms, rather than intentionally misrepresenting my opinions to others on the forum. Thank you.

Edit to add: On a side note, there is a thread around here where I'm very much in the minority about a long-term equity investment that I made. Believe me, it is tempting to trumpet its recent gains to all of the naysayers who told me, in essence, that I was dumb. I get being on a relative island in these discussions, where it can feel like people are ganging up on you. I do not intend to do that to you or Mr. Tightwad. I do find his name ironic, and I do not think Tesla is a good long term investment, and since I don't day trade, I don't follow the ups and downs of volatile stocks like Tesla.

Our opinions on electric cars as the future are very much in line. Our long term outlooks on Tesla differ. I do not think Tesla is a value stock right now; I think it is a purely speculative one. There's nothing wrong with putting money there, so long as you recognize it for what it is.
I bought T at 30.50, right about the same time as you. And I'm still a Tightwad.
Mr. Tightwad is offline  
Old 10-02-2018, 05:33 PM   #1030
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Tacoma
Posts: 520
Quote:
Originally Posted by nash031 View Post
First, please point out where I said anywhere that Tesla "won't survive."
Our opinions on electric cars as the future are very much in line. Our long term outlooks on Tesla differ. I do not think Tesla is a value stock right now; I think it is a purely speculative one. There's nothing wrong with putting money there, so long as you recognize it for what it is.
I apologize; that was a little snarky.

My point was simply that there is most definitely a market for expensive vehicles. The fact that you are not willing to spend that kind of money on a car (nor am I) is not really relevant to the question of whether Tesla or the other luxury car makers are worth investing in. Put differently, I would never spend $1,000 on an iPhone, but that tells us very little about the investment value of Apple stock.
oneill225 is offline  
Old 10-02-2018, 05:58 PM   #1031
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
nash031's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Bonita (San Diego)
Posts: 1,795
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Tightwad View Post
I bought T at 30.50, right about the same time as you. And I'm still a Tightwad.
Tightwad is a relative term, of course! What's tight for you and tight for me could be very different. I consider myself pretty tight with money... until it comes to steak dinners. At any rate, if you bought T at 30.50, we bought at the same exact time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by oneill225 View Post
I apologize; that was a little snarky.

My point was simply that there is most definitely a market for expensive vehicles. The fact that you are not willing to spend that kind of money on a car (nor am I) is not really relevant to the question of whether Tesla or the other luxury car makers are worth investing in. Put differently, I would never spend $1,000 on an iPhone, but that tells us very little about the investment value of Apple stock.
There is definitely a market for those cars, and there are definitely people who make money investing in those car companies. I think you can make money investing in just about anything if you're lucky, savvy, or some combination thereof. One of my goals is to minimize downside risk when investing in equities, hence Tesla is totally inappropriate for me to invest in. That doesn't make it so for everyone.

That said, comparing a $1,000 phone to a $90,000 car isn't really a valid comparison IMO. That $1,000 phone is accessible to a much, much larger market than the $90,000 car, and represents just one segment (albeit the largest one) of Apple's overall business. I've been long Apple since 2011, recently sold half my position, but still sitting on the other half. Had I had the money back when I first heard about the iPod, I would've been in and probably FI if not fully retired by now. My passion for Apple is much the same as yours for Tesla, but outside of the "fanboys" both companies have/had and their visionary albeit eccentric founders, there isn't much comparison between the two, again IMO. When the iPod came out, I immediately thought "all of my friends are going to have these" (I was 24). Tesla doesn't move that needle - while a lot of people undoubtedly want them, simple fact is many/most people can't get there, even at the Model 3 price point, which means it's a niche market, and - my opinion again - the stock is overpriced for such a niche market.
__________________
"So we beat to our own drummer in the sun;
We ask for nobody's permission to run.
I just wanna live in a world like that;
Now I'm gonna live in a world like that!" - World Like That, O.A.R.
nash031 is offline  
Old 10-02-2018, 06:00 PM   #1032
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
There has been a rumor floating around that Tesla has not been able to sell as many Model 3's as it wants, because buyers want the promised $35K car, not the expensive ones. And so, unsold Teslas were sitting around in lots around the country.

Some even snooped around and saw markings on some cars indicating problems that needed fixing before the cars could be sold.

See an article published today (10/2/2018):

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...ge=BBNORuV_1|2

I searched a bit more, and found another interesting story published on 8/28. That is, other car makers also have a lot of new cars sitting around with no buyers.

See: https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/28...n-lots-unsold/
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)

"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is offline  
Old 10-02-2018, 06:10 PM   #1033
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 2,691
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobandsherry View Post
Not sure the market considers that "good news", a momentary surge and then reality hit.... down just over 1% on "good news", and down 2.5% from it's intraday high. And this is with DOW and NASDAQ up for the day.



Perhaps profit taking, but if people truly believed the "good news" story then it should be a "hold" instead of "sell".
Heh - the market thought that all the "good news" needed to be rewarded. Tesla continued to trickle down all day and closed today at $301.02, 3.12% lower than the when it opened and after the "good news".

Here's what the good news is.... yes, they met their target, and sold cars at a higher price. The future is sometime in the near/distant future, perhaps never, but on paper Tesla is talking about selling cars for much lower price ($35K) and therefore much thinner margins. That's perhaps the "news" that the market digested and reflected today. Guess we'll see what the market thinks tomorrow as after hours it popped back to $304.10, but still below the open today.
bobandsherry is offline  
Old 10-02-2018, 06:49 PM   #1034
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,819
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Tightwad View Post
Volvo has a future...it no longer will make ICE cars starting in 3 months..They've already planned and adjusted for the future
You just lost a ton of credibility.

I gotta run, but I suggest you research that, and come back with an accurate assessment of what Volvo's plans are. If you get it right, I'll return 90% of your credibility score.

-ERD50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Tightwad View Post
The company thinks it will hit 50% electric sales by 2025...thats not too long of a process
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Tightwad View Post
I never said all car sales will be 100% EV's, not now and not in 2025. ...
Well, I gave you a chance. But instead of taking back your erroneous statement that "Volvo ... no longer will make ICE cars starting in 3 months.", you diverted the topic to other EV numbers.

But I'm feeling generous today. I'll give you another chance to explain to us what the Volvo story really is. Get that right, and I'll still give you 90% of your credibility rating back. Fail, and you are in negative numbers.

It's easy - instead of reading the EV fanbois interpretation or some headline of what Volvo said, just tell us what Volvo actually said, and what it means. Hint - it certainly doesn't mean they won't sell a car with an ICE 3 months from now.

What does "new models" mean? Another hint: I can still buy a Ford Mustang, a model introduced over 50 years ago, in a time before catalytic converters, electronic fuel injection, air bags, ABS, ECM, cassette decks, etc. That's a long time, and many advances ago

-ERD50
ERD50 is offline  
Old 10-02-2018, 07:42 PM   #1035
Moderator Emeritus
aja8888's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Conroe, Texas
Posts: 18,642
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
There has been a rumor floating around that Tesla has not been able to sell as many Model 3's as it wants, because buyers want the promised $35K car, not the expensive ones. And so, unsold Teslas were sitting around in lots around the country.

Some even snooped around and saw markings on some cars indicating problems that needed fixing before the cars could be sold.

See an article published today (10/2/2018):

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...ge=BBNORuV_1|2

I searched a bit more, and found another interesting story published on 8/28. That is, other car makers also have a lot of new cars sitting around with no buyers.

See: https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/28...n-lots-unsold/
It looks like all the major auto makers are having sales troubles:

Quote:
September Carmageddon for Ford and GM

Ford drops to 4th place. Industry sales in the red for the year. But FCA sales jump.

GM stopped giving out monthly numbers of new-vehicle deliveries earlier this year, and switched to quarterly releases. Today it reported its third quarter new vehicle deliveries, and they plunged 11% compared to a year ago, to 694,638 cars and light trucks. All of its brands lost ground.

Because we stubbornly insist on monthly numbers, even if GM is hiding them, they’re now being estimated. Based on Bloomberg’s survey of analysts, GM’s sales in the month of September plunged 14%.
Current article. Note that Tesla is ahead of Mazda in U.S. sales.

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/10/02/se...eddon-ford-gm/
__________________
*********Go Astros!*********
aja8888 is offline  
Old 10-02-2018, 08:01 PM   #1036
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: claremont
Posts: 586
Tesla's value is in the powertrain, controls, electronics, batteries, etc. They are a tech company masquerading as an auto company.


Had they given the body design concept and component specs to Toyota... They would be a contract manufacturing car company with marketable tech to sell.


Cool design, great fundamental tech, terrible leadership, dead man walking, Yugo quality
indiajust is offline  
Old 10-02-2018, 09:17 PM   #1037
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Tacoma
Posts: 520
Quote:
Originally Posted by indiajust View Post
Tesla's value is in the powertrain, controls, electronics, batteries, etc. They are a tech company masquerading as an auto company.
Had they given the body design concept and component specs to Toyota... They would be a contract manufacturing car company with marketable tech to sell.
Cool design, great fundamental tech, terrible leadership, dead man walking, Yugo quality
Yugo quality? Not according to the current owners, professional reviewers and the NHTSA (which gives all three Tesla models their top safety rating). What do you know that they are missing?
oneill225 is offline  
Old 10-02-2018, 10:37 PM   #1038
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 17,203
It has been mentioned a few times about the big drop in car sales YOY...


Remember that Harvey hit Texas last year and there were up to 1 million cars destroyed... lots of people bought new cars which spiked last year... when they reported the drops they also mentioned this... one reason why just seeing a number can be meaningless...




https://www.wired.com/story/harvey-houston-cars-ruined/
Texas Proud is offline  
Old 10-03-2018, 01:26 AM   #1039
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: SoCal
Posts: 1,286
Quote:
Originally Posted by indiajust View Post
Tesla's value is in the powertrain, controls, electronics, batteries, etc. They are a tech company masquerading as an auto company.


Had they given the body design concept and component specs to Toyota... They would be a contract manufacturing car company with marketable tech to sell.


Cool design, great fundamental tech, terrible leadership, dead man walking, Yugo quality
I agree with you about Tesla being a tech company more than an auto company.

Yugo? I don't know how you could think that.
Mr. Tightwad is offline  
Old 10-03-2018, 01:38 AM   #1040
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: SoCal
Posts: 1,286
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
There has been a rumor floating around that Tesla has not been able to sell as many Model 3's as it wants, because buyers want the promised $35K car, not the expensive ones. And so, unsold Teslas were sitting around in lots around the country.

Some even snooped around and saw markings on some cars indicating problems that needed fixing before the cars could be sold.

See an article published today (10/2/2018):

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...ge=BBNORuV_1|2

I searched a bit more, and found another interesting story published on 8/28. That is, other car makers also have a lot of new cars sitting around with no buyers.

See: https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/28...n-lots-unsold/
What I heard was that there was model 3's stockpiled in late June. They delayed deliveries so that they would not reach the threshold (200,000 I think?) that kicked in to reduce the federal tax credits. Meaning they wanted delivery # 200,000 to occur July 1st or later. This would extend the full tax credit til 12/31. I have no idea if this is true, but it sounds plausible.
Mr. Tightwad is offline  
Closed Thread


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
More on the Tesla electric car Chuckanut Other topics 622 05-30-2015 12:42 PM
Zathras are you there? Tesla curiosity…. VaCollector FIRE and Money 21 08-22-2014 01:51 PM
Tesla Hacked ls99 Other topics 1 07-22-2014 09:16 PM
Elon Musk and selling Tesla cars frayne Other topics 4 08-22-2013 05:10 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:54 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.