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Old 10-08-2018, 07:10 PM   #1141
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While I believe Tesla's stock price is unwarranted, as volatile as the price (and the underlying company, and its CEO) have been, if I were publicly gloating now I'd be prepared to publicly eat some crow later. Not a sure thing, but not impossible. This stock price is driven by hopes and fears, not fundamentals, and human emotions/crowd behavior can be a fickle thing.


Anyone who >knows< it is on a one-way descent and is not actively shorting it is, well, not behaving rationally.
This stock has, despite the crowing of it's CEO as to how much progress it's made, is down from 350 a year ago to 250 today. A 28% drop while overall market is up over 10% is just a bit telling as to the markets impression. This thread originated with question on continuing to purchase the stock. The dialogue has been wrapped around opinions on both sides, so far those contrarians have been right. However it's possible that opinions change IF the company the CEO change it's course. So anything is possible, especially with the irrational nature of traders in this stock.

As for shorting, IMHO that's something I never think is a good option (pun intended). Obviously no one >knows<, but like any stock analysis one looks as past, present and future financials to formulate an opinion.

Willing to eat a plate of crow, it won't be first time I've been wrong. Just fortunately I'm right more often than I've been wrong. But heck, even experts who make a lot of money for their opinions have been wrong such as David Tice, he predicted in April that the market would shed 20-25% (was he wrong or what). Or even David Ackman who took $3 billion loss on Valeant (aka Bausch Health) he bought in at $196 and sold at $11 (that's just really wrong). Just an example of a high flyer stock that sunk quickly.
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Old 10-08-2018, 07:14 PM   #1142
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Yeah, I'd be very leery of shorting this stock into earnings. I suspect that they will do everything they can to make Q3 look good, with the intent of raising capital in Q4. I could easily see the stock going up 30 points when they release earnings, even though I'm extremely bearish on the company long term.
If you can easily see this, you betting with your wallet? Here's a chance then to pick up 12%.
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Old 10-08-2018, 09:17 PM   #1143
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If you can easily see this, you betting with your wallet? Here's a chance then to pick up 12%.
Iím saying it wouldnít surprise me, not that Iím confident it will happen. I would never buy Tesla stock, as I donít trust their management and I donít think it is a good business. Iím just saying that I wouldnít be willing to hold a short through the earnings report.
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Old 10-08-2018, 09:58 PM   #1144
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Welp, guess 3 days later even all the "good news" couldn't keep stock above $250. Let's see if it tests the 52 week low of $244, if it passes that then $200 is very possible. Surprisingly Musk has been quiet, and his cheerleader too.
Reason that Musk has been quiet today: hangover from smoking weed and drinking champagne after the SpaceX Mission last night.

It was a great light show. Lots of colors.
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Old 10-09-2018, 01:19 AM   #1145
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Iím saying it wouldnít surprise me, not that Iím confident it will happen. I would never buy Tesla stock, as I donít trust their management and I donít think it is a good business. Iím just saying that I wouldnít be willing to hold a short through the earnings report.
So if you wouldn't touch it now then to answer the OP's question (when stock was at $303) your answer would be no. That's all that I've been saying
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Old 10-09-2018, 08:35 AM   #1146
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I donít think it is a good business. Iím just saying that I wouldnít be willing to hold a short through the earnings report.
Yes that says a lot! I thought it was a good business until the CEO started to misbehave and his executives bailed. Now I think it is a highly speculative play and will remain so until it gets refinanced (at least 6 months).
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Old 10-09-2018, 08:56 AM   #1147
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Finally seeing some recovery from all these drops. Up ~ 2.5% near the open. Still a long way to go for those that were buying on the first dips.

-ERD50
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Old 10-09-2018, 09:02 AM   #1148
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So if you wouldn't touch it now then to answer the OP's question (when stock was at $303) your answer would be no. That's all that I've been saying
I didnít think that was enough of a dip. Iím surprised that person was so confident that he would eventually sell at a pop especially there was a big dip a few days before that.
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Old 10-09-2018, 10:36 AM   #1149
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Finally seeing some recovery from all these drops. Up ~ 2.5% near the open. Still a long way to go for those that were buying on the first dips.

-ERD50
And still rising now at $263, so looks like $250 was the resistance point on this which was near their 52 week low. And also this may have fueled the irrational investing.

Tesla's stock bounces after bullish call by Macquarie analyst

They have done other upgrades/targets that have done well, but then they also miss the target like they did with Hertz. Hertz rated as outperform back in January with target of $26-30 (stock was trading then at $22, now at $16 and change, never reaching their target price.

Hertz Upgraded By Macquarie Research: Here's Why

Let's see how much leg this has.
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Old 10-09-2018, 01:51 PM   #1150
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“Given the volatility, you’re really rolling the dice. I’m on the sidelines. The market can remain irrational much longer than I can remain solvent.” -- Gary Shilling
+1 Short sellers need two things:
  • They need to be right
  • There needs to a clear deadline when they are proven right

In case of the housing crisis it was the dates when the grace period of mortgages (no interest/pay-off) started expiring, and even then most shorters underestimated irrationality quite a bit.

It costs money to take up a short position, and time is against you. Takes a special kind of character to pull off.
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Old 10-09-2018, 02:05 PM   #1151
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The late Sir Templeton shorted some dot-com stocks in early 2000, and made $85M for himself when he was no longer managing other people's money. He did not need the money, but I guess he could not stand it.

His timing was impeccable. He never had to cover his shorts. They all went bankrupt.

I still remember his interview then. He said that he was helping people. When they wanted to buy, he sold to them.
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Old 10-09-2018, 05:53 PM   #1152
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An article about NIO (the Tesla Killer) of China. Basically states that Tesla's largest shareholder (not including EM) today purchased an 11.4 % stake in this company.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/09/chin...kes-stake.html

As I posted earlier in this thread, I bought many thousands of shares on the IPO and sold the next day at about 70% profit! The stock has traded lower everyday since, until today!
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Old 10-10-2018, 04:26 PM   #1153
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Looks like we have found support at $250 if it is holding during a -3% market day.
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Old 10-10-2018, 04:49 PM   #1154
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What happened to Oneill225?
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Old 10-10-2018, 10:01 PM   #1155
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I think he's waiting for the stock to go up to comment further.
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Old 10-11-2018, 08:55 AM   #1156
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Looks like we have found support at $250 if it is holding during a -3% market day.
Yeah, and still holding above this morning with market sell off. But if it breaks $250 a drop of another 10% to $225 can be in the cards. Tesla hit $280 in 2015, then dropped to $150 (46%) before the bounce, and $279 in 2014 to $185 (33%) again before a bounce, so $360 to $225 before a bounce falls in the middle.
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Old 10-11-2018, 04:19 PM   #1157
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Still holding at $250 and change, and even up a few pennies today.
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Old 10-12-2018, 08:57 AM   #1158
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Still holding at $250 and change, and even up a few pennies today.
I'm a bit surprised how well it held up the past few days while the market tanked. And today, the market is up, and so far TSLA is up more than the market. So it sure does seem to have some support at this level, for now.

Of course, I have no idea what that means for the future, but our very quiet dip-buyers still have a long way to go to turn a profit.

Aside from recent stock movement, I'm curious how their Semi Truck will do. The specs and cost and other features were much better than I anticipated. But two big issues - can they deliver (not a good track record here), and those "Mega Chargers".

A Mega Charger requires a lot of infrastructure. That adds a lot to the cost of the Semi. I have not seen costs yet, but it appears that one Mega Charger would be the equivalent of ten Super Chargers.That seems like a big investment compared to the diesel tanks they already have, or have access to.

-ERD50
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Old 10-12-2018, 09:52 AM   #1159
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Willing to eat a plate of crow, it won't be first time I've been wrong.
.
.
.
Or even David Ackman who took $3 billion loss on Valeant (aka Bausch Health) he bought in at $196 and sold at $11 (that's just really wrong).
Bill Ackman

Plate of crow served.
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Old 10-12-2018, 10:15 AM   #1160
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Bill Ackman

Plate of crow served.
We are friends, I call him David
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