Thoughts on TESLA

[kcowan]

The more I understand a technical problem, the more I appreciate the hard work, and admire the guys who solve it. As in any field, an outstanding achievement by a worker is appreciated more by his peers than by the public.

Yes! I am not an expert but I feel that they are all taking a mechanistic approach rather than a holistic approach. Like they are counting the grains of sand to determine the size of an anthill.

 

[oneill225]

ICE Resale Values

An interesting article from the WSJ that touches (partly) on how the mass adoption of electric vehicles will affect the future resale value of internal combustion cars and trucks:

https://insideevs.com/wall-street-journal-ice-cars-like-flip-phones/

Those still "stuck" with ICE vehicles when no one wants to buy them will also need to deal with finding gasoline to fuel them, as the corner gas station will no longer exist.

 

[aja8888]

Those still "stuck" with ICE vehicles when no one wants to buy them will also need to deal with finding gasoline to fuel them, as the corner gas station will no longer exist.

Crap! I better run down to one of the 5,000 gas stations in Houston and gas up our three vehicles before they get closed! Scary stuff!

 

[bobandsherry]

Crap! I better run down to one of the 5,000 gas stations in Houston and gas up our three vehicles before they get closed! Scary stuff!

Hahaha...

 

[REWahoo]

Another article with about as much predictive reality as the 1978 article by Frederick Wilfrid Lancaster foretelling the coming "paperless society". Sadly, Mr. Lancaster passed away 35 years later and his death certificate, a paper document, reinforced the inaccuracy of his vision of the future.

Neil says, “During the reasonable service life of any vehicle I buy today, I expect the demand for IC-powered vehicles will drop to practically zero, equivalent to the current market penetration of flip phones. No one will want them and there will be nowhere to get them fixed..."

I wonder if the hearse taking Mr. Neil to his final resting place will be an ICE vehicle...

 

[aja8888]

Actually, flip phones are making a comeback!

Another article with about as much predictive reality as the 1978 article by Frederick Wilfrid Lancaster foretelling the coming "paperless society". Sadly, Mr. Lancaster passed away 35 years later and his death certificate, a paper document, reinforced the inaccuracy of his vision of the future.



I wonder if the hearse taking Mr. Neil to his final resting place will be an ICE vehicle...

https://www.phonearena.com/news/Dont-look-now-but-flip-phones-are-making-a-comeback_id104261

Perhaps it is no surprise that those leaving a smartphone for a flip phone feel more focused. One person who made the switch, Brooklyn's Roman Cochet, swapped his Apple iPhone for an LG flipper and says that without a smartphone's constant demand for his attention, he feels more focused and less distracted. And this trend has even hit Hollywood where Kim Kardashian-West and Daniel Day-Lewis were spotted clutching flip phones.

Hey, if the Hollywood crowd is going back to flip phones, the rest of the U.S. is next!

 

[oneill225]

Crap! I better run down to one of the 5,000 gas stations in Houston and gas up our three vehicles before they get closed! Scary stuff!

You have a little time (5-10 years, I would guess). Consider this a heads-up depending on your life expectancy chart.

Don't be like those who were still investing in the horse drawn carriage industry in 1905.

The times, they are a changing.

 

[NW-Bound]

Hey, I dunno how soon this automobile electrification will occur, but I have shares of copper and lithium mining companies just in case. They have not been doing that well, just kind of flutter around. I just let them be. I have patience.

 

[oneill225]

Hey, I dunno how soon this automobile electrification will occur, but I have shares of copper and lithium mining companies just in case. They have not been doing that well, just kind of flutter around. I just let them be. I have patience.

Could be a good call. I am still leery about investing in battery components. That industry is evolving very quickly with a ton of R&D going on. No one really wants to stay with lithium due to the safety issues. We are just stuck with it for now.

 

[aja8888]

You have a little time (5-10 years, I would guess). Consider this a heads-up depending on your life expectancy chart.

Don't be like those who were still investing in the horse drawn carriage industry in 1905.

The times, they are a changing.

Man, do you really believe this stuff, do you?

Just curious, but what do you think will happen to about 200,000,000 + ICE cars and other vehicles currently on the road in the U.S. once your government says "turn them off"? And, how are 150,000,000+ people that make minimum wage or thereabouts to get to work, school, the doctor, etc when they have no car and can't afford a high priced EV or the power price you will be paying at that time to charge it? (it will be very high)

Do you realize how much tax revenue is paid to state and federal governments from liquid fuel sales? You don't really think our guys and gals in Congress will vote to see those Billions (Trillions?) go away? Do you?

It sounds to me that the people who forecast and believe this unrealistic crap are living in Seattle in four sided cubes away from the reality of the rest of this nation.

 

[Texas Proud]

You have a little time (5-10 years, I would guess). Consider this a heads-up depending on your life expectancy chart.

Don't be like those who were still investing in the horse drawn carriage industry in 1905.

The times, they are a changing.

WAY overly optimistic on when ICE will disappear....


Here is a prediction that by 2040 EV sales will finally be over 50%

And the fleet will still be only 33% EV... the rest ICE...

https://insideevs.com/bloomberg-new...plug-ins-global-share-forecast-to-54-by-2040/

 

[oneill225]

Man, do you really believe this stuff, do you?
Just curious, but what do you think will happen to about 200,000,000 + ICE cars and other vehicles currently on the road in the U.S. once your government says "turn them off"? And, how are 150,000,000+ people that make minimum wage or thereabouts to get to work, school, the doctor, etc when they have no car and can't afford a high priced EV or the power price you will be paying at that time to charge it? (it will be very high)
Do you realize how much tax revenue is paid to state and federal governments from liquid fuel sales? You don't really think our guys and gals in Congress will vote to see those Billions (Trillions?) go away? Do you?
It sounds to me that the people who forecast and believe this unrealistic crap are living in Seattle in four sided cubes away from the reality of the rest of this nation.

What's not to believe? You offer a lot of flawed assumptions.
The number of new ICE cars and trucks sold will predictably fade as new more affordable EV cars and trucks hit the market. Even the pathetic soles that you think can't afford to buy an EV now will be able to in the near future.
Remember, this will happen over a period of several years and will be mostly driven by the marketplace (with the occasional government incentive). How will the thousands of gas stations survive when people are charging their cars at home each night? Of course there will be ICE cars (classics and beaters) out there forever, but the huge infrastructure necessary to fuel cars today will be gone when electric vehicles dominate the market.
I live in Tacoma and do not own an electric car, but I will be in the market in a year or two.
Price is really the only barrier to currently getting into the EV market. Is it your contention that EV prices are never going to be within the grasp of the non-rich? That just ignores reality.

 

[JoeWras]

In 1975 my age group (on the cusp of reaching 16 and driving) were told to forget it about, cars are done. Recall, we were working through the energy crisis.



Those living in dense urban areas may have a different view than others. Tunnel vision can occur.

 

[oneill225]

In 1975 my age group (on the cusp of reaching 16 and driving) were told to forget it about, cars are done. Recall, we were working through the energy crisis.
Those living in dense urban areas may have a different view than others. Tunnel vision can occur.

I do not approach this from an environmental perspective (although I would prefer to not breath tail pipe emissions). I view it from a technology and market driven perspective. The EV tech is clearly superior to ICE and it does not require "gassing-up" every week at the local corner gas station or getting the oil changed every 10,000 miles.

Those, here, who poo poo this shift from ICE to EV cite cost and range as though those weaknesses cannot be overcome despite the fact that cost and range are improving monthly. This is a great time to consider investing in this new, life changing technology and Tesla is on the cutting edge.

 

[Chuckanut]

Don't be like those who were still investing in the horse drawn carriage industry in 1905.

The times, they are a changing.

I'm not sure I see the comparison between buying an ICE auto today and investing in a business, any business. Buying a car is not an investment in anything. It's an expense plain and simple. I buy lots of things made by businesses I would never invest in.

Besides, I don't think that all the horses died from lack of food and water as the auto took over personal transportation. Somehow they still had grass and hay to eat, water to drink and even vets to fix them.

I can't imagine buying an ICE car today and not having fuel and service still exist for at least another decade, and that assumes that EV's take the majority of the market today. And, face it, EV's aren't going to represent a majority of new cars sold for years to come. Not to say they won't, but not this year, the next, or even the year after that. 2024? Maybe if the charging network and electrical production capacity are adequate.

FWIW, if I could afford an EV car that would meet my needs I would buy it today. Alas, such a vehicle does not exist at this time.

 

[oneill225]

I'm not sure I see the comparison between buying an ICE auto today and investing in a business, any business. Buying a car is not an investment in anything. It's an expense plain and simple. I buy lots of things made by businesses I would never invest in.
FWIW, if I could afford an EV car that would meet my needs I would buy it today. Alas, such a vehicle does not exist at this time.

I think cars are a relatively big investment for most people. If you knew that you were going to have a tough time selling your new car down the road, you might think twice and opt for the car with a higher resale value. This will be exactly the predicament facing every car buyer when EVs start to dominate the market.

The horse drawn carriage analogy is pretty close. Ford made the ICE car affordable for the masses and it destroyed the horse drawn carriage industry in less than a decade. EVs are now nearing mass affordability thanks to Tesla and a few other manufactures. If you follow the EV industry, you will see that we are within a few years of this shift becoming a reality. That does not mean that ICE vehicles will be immediately obsolete, but their days will be numbered.

I remember when a 25" TV was amazing! Now, even the poorest Americans are watching 55" or bigger flat panels and those old TVs are near non-existent. When new technology offers a clearly better option at an affordable price, we will buy it and not look back.

 

[aja8888]

WAY overly optimistic on when ICE will disappear....


Here is a prediction that by 2040 EV sales will finally be over 50%

And the fleet will still be only 33% EV... the rest ICE...

https://insideevs.com/bloomberg-new...plug-ins-global-share-forecast-to-54-by-2040/

These are the charts that seem to make the most sense. (5 to 10 years for all gas stations to be empty lots? Not going to happen.)

EV's will adapt over time and only if they are priced for the common family. Otherwise, they are expensive toys.

And if EV's ever get well into the high percentages of the market, electricity will become as costly as gasoline with the addition of layers of taxes.

 

[REWahoo]

If you follow the EV industry, you will see that we are within a few years of this shift becoming a reality.

A bit heavy on the EV flavored Kool-Aid, but heck, everyone needs something to believe in. It's possible some huge breakthrough on battery technology will change the landscape quickly, but odds are the charts Texas Proud posted will track much closer to reality.

 

[NW-Bound]

I think cars are a relatively big investment for most people. If you knew that you were going to have a tough time selling your new car down the road, you might think twice and opt for the car with a higher resale value. This will be exactly the predicament facing every car buyer when EVs start to dominate the market.

The horse drawn carriage analogy is pretty close. Ford made the ICE car affordable for the masses and it destroyed the horse drawn carriage industry in less than a decade. EVs are now nearing mass affordability thanks to Tesla and a few other manufactures. If you follow the EV industry, you will see that we are within a few years of this shift becoming a reality. That does not mean that ICE vehicles will be immediately obsolete, but their days will be numbered.

I remember when a 25" TV was amazing! Now, even the poorest Americans are watching 55" or bigger flat panels and those old TVs are near non-existent. When new technology offers a clearly better option at an affordable price, we will buy it and not look back.

EVs are still expensive. Until the price comes down, an ICE car is the best means for transportation, unless you care about 0-to-60 acceleration. When EVs are cheap and easy to charge, people will buy them.

If I buy a new ICE car now and keep it at least 10-15 years like I usually do, I am confident that there will still be gasoline available when I sell it. In fact, whoever buys it from me will be able to get gas to drive the car to the ground.

PS. I helped my mom buy a car to replace her Accord. We settled on a Toyota Yaris sold by Hertz. It was 2018 model, had 11K miles on the odometer, and looked like new. Price was $14K out the door. I thought that was hard to beat.

PPS. My mother has money, and would not mind paying $60K for a Tesla Model 3 if it were a truly autonomous car. But such a car is not currently available at any price. Of course, the SDC technology is agnostic between ICE and EV cars.

 

[Chuckanut]

Here is another opinion:

(Probably behind a pay wall)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/think-...great-now-just-wait-11545838139?mod=read_more

“So I’m waiting. Waiting to choose one of the scores of electric vehicle models that I know are coming down the pipeline in the next 18 to 36 months—the exact timing of my purchase depends on whether it’s possible to paint the whole van with rattle-cans. In any event, I’m waiting, because internal-combustion (IC) just doesn’t work for me anymore. In the car market I am a human headwind.”

“During the reasonable service life of any vehicle I buy today, I expect the demand for IC-powered vehicles will drop to practically zero, equivalent to the current market penetration of flip phones. No one will want them and there will be nowhere to get them fixed; by that time widespread fleet electrification will have cratered traditional dealerships that depend on service dollars to survive.”

 

[REWahoo]

Here is another opinion:

(Probably behind a pay wall)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/think-...great-now-just-wait-11545838139?mod=read_more

“So I’m waiting. Waiting to choose one of the scores of electric vehicle models that I know are coming down the pipeline in the next 18 to 36 months—the exact timing of my purchase depends on whether it’s possible to paint the whole van with rattle-cans. In any event, I’m waiting, because internal-combustion (IC) just doesn’t work for me anymore. In the car market I am a human headwind.”

“During the reasonable service life of any vehicle I buy today, I expect the demand for IC-powered vehicles will drop to practically zero, equivalent to the current market penetration of flip phones. No one will want them and there will be nowhere to get them fixed; by that time widespread fleet electrification will have cratered traditional dealerships that depend on service dollars to survive.”

You are about a dozen posts behind:

An interesting article from the WSJ that touches (partly) on how the mass adoption of electric vehicles will affect the future resale value of internal combustion cars and trucks:

https://insideevs.com/wall-street-journal-ice-cars-like-flip-phones/

Those still "stuck" with ICE vehicles when no one wants to buy them will also need to deal with finding gasoline to fuel them, as the corner gas station will no longer exist.

 

[mpeirce]

The EV tech ... does not require "gassing-up" every week at the local corner gas station

It's currently a good experience if you have a garage with a charger installed - basically we'll off suburban drivers. Just plug in every time you pull in and unplug as you leave. This works fine for use around town.

I have yet to hear answers for car drivers who park on the street, in an uncovered driveway, or in an uncovered parking lot. Running electric cords all over creation (in the snow!) doesn't sounds like a workable solution.

 

[Chuckanut]

You are about a dozen posts behind:

Flip phones are not state of the art?

 

[oneill225]

It's currently a good experience if you have a garage with a charger installed - basically we'll off suburban drivers. Just plug in every time you pull in and unplug as you leave. This works fine for use around town.
I have yet to hear answers for car drivers who park on the street, in an uncovered driveway, or in an uncovered parking lot. Running electric cords all over creation (in the snow!) doesn't sounds like a workable solution.

Agreed, but it is an easy upgrade for most parking situations.

A covered driveway is not required; the chargers work in all weather. You can charge in the snow.

Apartment and other living complexes will add charging capability to their parking when they realize that it gives them a competitive advantage over non-charging complexes. I also wouldn't be shocked to learn that local governments were requiring a certain number of charging stations in every new construction apartment.

Streets are the toughest to cover, but I have no doubt that where there is a need, some motivated entrepreneur will step in to fill.

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by aja8888 Man, do you really believe this stuff, do you?

What's not to believe? You offer a lot of flawed assumptions. ....

It's really hard to take you seriously oneill225. It seems to me you are either trolling us, or you are such a fan that you are blind to reality, and/or you are really bad at numbers.

OK, I will call your bluff. Instead of you just spouting predictions, and telling us we are lacking vision - you put together a scenario where your 'dream' can come true. Using real facts and figures.

You can research your own numbers, but I'm finding that there are about:

280 million registered vehicles on the road today in the US.

12-15 million vehicles reach the end of their use each year in the United States

So we could assume that the number of vehicles stays about the same, with scrapped cars being replaced one for one. What it would take in EV sales each year to reach the point where it will be hard to find a gas station (let alone "not exist") in 5, 10, or even 15 years?


There are often multiple gas stations on a corner, and on the next corner a mile away. We could easily have 1/10th the number of gas stations, and they still would still be easy to find. On google maps, there are 16 gas stations within a few miles of my home, and even more if I include ones along the roads I travel between fill-ups, so 1/10th is a low bar for 'hard to find'. But OK, let's set 90% EV on the road as the target. Just do the math, we can ignore that some subset of drivers will probably hang onto gas vehicles longer.

... Those still "stuck" with ICE vehicles when no one wants to buy them will also need to deal with finding gasoline to fuel them, as the corner gas station will no longer exist.

You have a little time (5-10 years, I would guess). Consider this a heads-up depending on your life expectancy chart.

Don't be like those who were still investing in the horse drawn carriage industry in 1905.

The times, they are a changing.

So show me numbers that support this happening in 5-10 years.

... That just ignores reality.

We will see who is ignoring reality.

-ERD50