Thoughts on TESLA

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Originally Posted by ERD50
As I keep showing you, the source I keep posting shows the hybrid in their study isn't that far from an EV on NG . Hybrids have improved since that study, and keep improving, so the gap is narrowing, maybe eliminated by now with the best hybrids, especially if even a small % of coal is mixed in to that marginal power generation.

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The discussion isn't moot, as long as people and subsidies are promoting EVs as 'planet savers', even if you personally don't care.
Hmmm, this source says hybrids are expected to grow. That growth may well be less than EV growth, but that probably has more to do with where each is on the growth curve.
I get it. You don't like subsidies, but the fact is that they exist due to global warming hype and they are likely to continue in the near future. Ironically, Tesla is now losing a number of subsidies due to their success. So, your apparent beef against Tesla getting subsidies should be fading. Maybe start a new thread that attacks subsidies instead of doing it on the stock picking thread. I really don't see the point in feeling sorry for hybrids. They will do fine until EVs can be charged faster and more ubiquitously.

So once again - rather than acknowledging the point that there may be little/no environmental difference with EVs charging on NG versus hybrids, you divert and focus on my passing comment on subsidies.

Would it really kill you to just say it - "You're right, there may be little/no environmental difference with EVs charging on NG versus hybrids"?

Who is 'feeling sorry for hybrids'?

-ERD50
 
So once again - rather than acknowledging the point that there may be little/no environmental difference with EVs charging on NG versus hybrids, you divert and focus on my passing comment on subsidies.
Would it really kill you to just say it - "You're right, there may be little/no environmental difference with EVs charging on NG versus hybrids"?
Who is 'feeling sorry for hybrids'?-ERD50

Hybrids get close, but EVs are better if we are talking about natural gas fueled electricity. As far as performance, hybrids are not even close. Hybrids are fine, I just don't want one. Enjoy yours.
 
Originally Posted by ERD50 ...
Would it really kill you to just say it - "You're right, there may be little/no environmental difference with EVs charging on NG versus hybrids"? ...-ERD50
Hybrids get close, but EVs are better if we are talking about natural gas fueled electricity. ...

Close enough, I'll take it,. Thanks! :)

Yes, they appear to be close, and it is probably splitting hairs to know if the best hybrids are better, and what the future will bring. My overall point is it is no slam-dunk for the EV.


... As far as performance, hybrids are not even close. Hybrids are fine, I just don't want one. Enjoy yours.

The modern hybrids probably have good enough performance for most people. But that's a personal decision.

Since we put so few miles on our cars, I don't think a the extra stuff' that has to be added for a hybrid would make economic or environmental sense for me. Probably the same for the environmental hit of the battery for an EV. But I'm interested in the technology of each. So people can decide based on their needs/wants. I just like good information, so it's a good decision.


-ERD50
 
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This thread has become very granularly focused on how green EVs are or how their fuel efficiency compares to ICE cars. The original post was to discuss thoughts on Tesla. While Tesla is an EV, and it will at some point compare to EVs coming out from Jaguar, Audi, Hyundai, and others, there is so much more to Tesla than just comparing EV specs.

I have not seen anyone match the level of technology integrated into Tesla vehicles. They have implemented so many features into their vehicles that are new to the automotive market. And what I think makes the real story here is that Tesla is a startup car manufacturer. It’s been more than 50 years since anyone has successfully built a new car brand from scratch. And while American luxury cars have faded into the background against names like BMW, Mercedes, Audi and Lexus, Tesla has managed to be the number one brand for luxury car sales last year, primarily with a car they just started building in volume in the past six months. I think it’s fantastic to see an American car company taking the spotlight away from the Japanese and German brands. Let’s give credit to Elon Musk for having the vision, and the nerve, to think he could build a brand new car company from scratch and have it leapfrog the best brands in the world in just ten years.

This is the real story to be told about Tesla, in my opinion.
 
This thread has become very granularly focused on how green EVs are or how their fuel efficiency compares to ICE cars. The original post was to discuss thoughts on Tesla. While Tesla is an EV, and it will at some point compare to EVs coming out from Jaguar, Audi, Hyundai, and others, there is so much more to Tesla than just comparing EV specs.

I have not seen anyone match the level of technology integrated into Tesla vehicles. They have implemented so many features into their vehicles that are new to the automotive market. And what I think makes the real story here is that Tesla is a startup car manufacturer. It’s been more than 50 years since anyone has successfully built a new car brand from scratch. And while American luxury cars have faded into the background against names like BMW, Mercedes, Audi and Lexus, Tesla has managed to be the number one brand for luxury car sales last year, primarily with a car they just started building in volume in the past six months. I think it’s fantastic to see an American car company taking the spotlight away from the Japanese and German brands. Let’s give credit to Elon Musk for having the vision, and the nerve, to think he could build a brand new car company from scratch and have it leapfrog the best brands in the world in just ten years.

This is the real story to be told about Tesla, in my opinion.

I have to somewhat agree. The car is really secondary to the fact that he actually pulled it off and didn't sink (at least yet). His ability to raise money was the key. Look at Delorean and others who tried this. What failed them was running out of money and not being able to scale up production.

The big car guys can hire the engineers and develop similar cars, but what gets in their way is corporate greed and policies, the need to make money (now), thinking outside the "box" and actually acting on that thinking, and the internal effects of THe Peter Principle (LOL).
 
I've repaired many a car and still restore an occasional classic when I find one on the cheap (last year's 1971 VW Beetle for example). Chinese manufacturers are selling low quality copies of many auto parts, even turbochargers. I about went nuts last year trying to buy VW parts for my Beetle that actually fit and worked. The last good quality parts for older Beetles were made in Brazil, but those were unobtainable, for the most part.

I would suspect that once enough Teslas are sold, the Chinese will start selling knock off parts. They do that now for just about all car makes. Check eBay and you will see. Or even but parts at a Autozone and most likely you will get Chinese ones.

And remember that Tesla is opening a factory in China. Any tech they don’t have already will be stolen and copied shortly. Then you’ll see the improvements in their EVs and parts galore for the Tesla. At Megacorp we saw them doing it for steam turbines. They did crater one but eventually they got it right.
 
I have to somewhat agree. The car is really secondary to the fact that he actually pulled it off and didn't sink (at least yet). His ability to raise money was the key. Look at Delorean and others who tried this. What failed them was running out of money and not being able to scale up production.

The big car guys can hire the engineers and develop similar cars, but what gets in their way is corporate greed and policies, the need to make money (now), thinking outside the "box" and actually acting on that thinking, and the internal effects of THe Peter Principle (LOL).

+1 to that! Anyone who can create thousands of American jobs that “were never coming back” needs to be congratulated. There are likely few that could have pulled this off. If they were set up as say a GM division, the bureaucracy would have strangled them before they ever got off the ground.

If only Delorean could have sold a little more coke...:LOL:
 
This thread has become very granularly focused on how green EVs are or how their fuel efficiency compares to ICE cars. The original post was to discuss thoughts on Tesla. While Tesla is an EV, and it will at some point compare to EVs coming out from Jaguar, Audi, Hyundai, and others, there is so much more to Tesla than just comparing EV specs.

I have not seen anyone match the level of technology integrated into Tesla vehicles. They have implemented so many features into their vehicles that are new to the automotive market. And what I think makes the real story here is that Tesla is a startup car manufacturer. It’s been more than 50 years since anyone has successfully built a new car brand from scratch. And while American luxury cars have faded into the background against names like BMW, Mercedes, Audi and Lexus, Tesla has managed to be the number one brand for luxury car sales last year, primarily with a car they just started building in volume in the past six months. I think it’s fantastic to see an American car company taking the spotlight away from the Japanese and German brands. Let’s give credit to Elon Musk for having the vision, and the nerve, to think he could build a brand new car company from scratch and have it leapfrog the best brands in the world in just ten years.

This is the real story to be told about Tesla, in my opinion.


+2

Absolutely.
 
This thread has become very granularly focused on how green EVs are or how their fuel efficiency compares to ICE cars. The original post was to discuss thoughts on Tesla. While Tesla is an EV, and it will at some point compare to EVs coming out from Jaguar, Audi, Hyundai, and others, there is so much more to Tesla than just comparing EV specs.

I have not seen anyone match the level of technology integrated into Tesla vehicles. They have implemented so many features into their vehicles that are new to the automotive market. And what I think makes the real story here is that Tesla is a startup car manufacturer. It’s been more than 50 years since anyone has successfully built a new car brand from scratch. And while American luxury cars have faded into the background against names like BMW, Mercedes, Audi and Lexus, Tesla has managed to be the number one brand for luxury car sales last year, primarily with a car they just started building in volume in the past six months. I think it’s fantastic to see an American car company taking the spotlight away from the Japanese and German brands. Let’s give credit to Elon Musk for having the vision, and the nerve, to think he could build a brand new car company from scratch and have it leapfrog the best brands in the world in just ten years.

This is the real story to be told about Tesla, in my opinion.

I've also commented on this in the past, probably even more enthusiastically than you just did. I think I used the words like "blown away", "very impressed". "almost impossible" that Musk was able to pull this off to this level. They are shipping cars in volume, and a lot of people really, really like them (sure, they have some problems like any start up). That enthusiasm is softened somewhat by the fact that they have been supported not only by customer subsidies, but (and I'd need to look up the numbers) also "zero-pollution" credits from other manufacturers who were not producing those vehicles up to certain State quotas. But it is still super impressive.


Now, why hasn't this been discussed so much? Simply because most people agree. There's isn't much more to say about it once it's stated, there is little debate. So that's a good thing, right?

On the other hand, some of the comments about EVs being 'green', that EVs will be 50% of sales in just a few years, that charging at a Supercharger is at least 2x to 4x cheaper than fueling with gasoline, that people buying ICE/hybrids today will need to worry about finding a gas station, that it's 'easy' to solve the lack of charging access for the many people who park on the street or a parking lot at an apartment, or that it's easy to provide all the kWh required for a massive shift to EVs and still have a high % of RE, and probably a few others I'm forgetting.... those are certainly debatable, and will trigger debate.

Maybe if some of the EV fans here tempered their statements, and made sure they were fact based and clearly defensible, and simply acknowledged when/if they are wrong, instead of dragging it out with diversion and circular logic, there would be far less discussion of those topics - they would be accepted. The ball is pretty much in their court.

-ERD50
 
This is a troubling statistic:
4Q shipments fall off leaving over 7000 unsold Model 3s
and that is also the final quarter of full EV rebates.
Source
 

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This is a troubling statistic:
4Q shipments fall off leaving over 7000 unsold Model 3s
and that is also the final quarter of full EV rebates.
Source

As this author notes, the "excess" inventory could be cars configured for China and/or EU when those markets open to the Model 3. Reading more into it seems a bit premature.

Meanwhile: Another analysis projecting continued dominance in the electric market by Tesla in 2019.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-dominating-says-j-d-power/
 
As this author notes, the "excess" inventory could be cars configured for China and/or EU when those markets open to the Model 3. Reading more into it seems a bit premature. ...

Could be, but...

Does that really make sense, considering Tesla was in the last quarter of the full $7,500 tax credit here in the US? It would seem they would want to book every sale they could before they cut prices for 2019:

https://electrek.co/2019/01/02/tesla-reduces-price-us-tax-credit-model-3/
With the start of the new year, Tesla buyers in the US now don’t have access to the full $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicles, but the automaker appears to have compensated by reducing the price of all its models in the US.
Seems like China/EU could wait a few weeks (edit to clarify: wait a few weeks until after US Q4 orders are filled) while Tesla burns that inventory at premium prices in the US.

-ERD50
 
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This story seems to support the idea that Tesla is starting to ship large numbers overseas. Doesn't look like they are waiting.

https://electrek.co/2019/01/11/tesla-model-3-shipment-oversea-deliveries/


I edited my previous post to clarify:

Seems like China/EU could wait a few weeks (edit to clarify: wait a few weeks until after US Q4 orders are filled) while Tesla burns that inventory at premium prices in the US.

Of course they would not just wait to fill orders to China/EU. But it does seem they would wait until after they filled the Q4 US orders before they drop prices Jan 1.


A massive number of Tesla Model 3 vehicles have been spotted being gathered by the automaker at the San Francisco port ahead initial oversea deliveries.
....

It is estimated to easily be over 1,000 units.
> 1000 units? Massive? Isn't that one or two days production? This is the 11th, plenty of time to make them after Q4 sales to US.

-ERD50
 
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Points:
a) No reason for "domination" hyperboles as there is plenty of room in for many car companies at various prices points. More EVs by all players is what the goal is and Tesla has stated that many time in many ways (articles, interviews, blogs, etc).

b) Average cost of cars is the low to mid 30s so plenty of room for sales and profit. Above I point out they are making the based Model 3 and Model Y in China (see tweets and article searches just a few post up).

https://i.imgur.com/IVI8Oc1.jpg
IVI8Oc1.jpg


c) Tesla had a road map to put out luxary cars and then get to lower priced cars ($30Ks).

2006 Tesla roadmap: https://www.tesla.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me
2016 Tesla roadmap: https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux

pORmhJ8.jpg

Just now, I happened to see a quick video history of Tesla on Yahoo that said the above plan was written by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, the founders of Tesla. They were shouldered out by Musk who invested money. Musk first took the chairman seat of the board as the lead investor, then took control of the company.

Earlier, I read another article that chronicles the early years of Tesla. It describes how Musk overstepped his responsibility of the chairmanship, and interfered with the design of the initial Roadster, causing further delay. At press conferences, Musk was jealous when the two founders got more publicity than he did, rightfully so. Sounded very much like Musk, alright.
 
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Not true. Many do not have an opinion about the stock, such as myself, and choose to stand on the sideline. Neither long nor short the stock.


Unless you count the shares held in a MF... I would bet that a good number of MFs hold Tesla...


Since it is part of an index I have some...
 
"Why should any government encourage their use?"

Turn on your vehicle, stand behind it, and inhale deeply. You'll get your reason.


Gotta be careful, or we will be like Germany with its coal plants burning dirty brown coal called lignite to make electricity. Coal plants still produce 37% of their electricity, in fact. See photo below.

Maybe we can get Mexico to produce that electricity for us?

ap_17303631125066-2c21305304e3535dbf20057cda126f459629c6ee-s800-c85.jpg


That's not an EV consequence, but a consequence of shutting down nuclear power after Fukushima.


I did not mean that Germany has to burn a lot of coal because of EVs, which they do not yet have a lot of, thank goodness.

What I meant was that to encourage more use of electricity without knowing where it comes from, well, look at Germany!
 
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Not true. Many do not have an opinion about the stock, such as myself, and choose to stand on the sideline. Neither long nor short the stock.

Unless you count the shares held in a MF... I would bet that a good number of MFs hold Tesla...

Since it is part of an index I have some...

Tesla as a company is OK with me. Musk, I do not care about.

Still, I do not hate him enough to research how much of Tesla stock I have in MFs, in order to short some shares to cancel it out. :LOL:
 
A while back, I mentioned that a friend of mine bought a Tesla Model S, and I said I'd update the thread when I got a chance to get a ride and get some info from him.

So they picked us up this w/e and we went out to dinner. So only about a 10 minute ride each way, so this is really a mini-mini impression/review. And keep in mind, even though I'm interested in technology, and know a fair amount about cars, I just never got the bug to own a performance car. To me, a car is something to spend the least amount of money on to get me reliably from A to B in reasonable comfort and safety. I don't think of cars as status symbols, I just don't care about that.

He mentioned that he got the S because he didn't like the Model 3, he said the interior looked like something out of a Dodge Neon (his words, not mine). As we got in the car, his wife warned us that she had got her hand caught in the door handle a couple times, be careful. I didn't really know what that was about, but thought it was kinda weird.

He showed off some of the novelty gimmicks, which I thought were pretty cheesy (fart sounds for turn signal, 'Santa' mode' with sleigh bells for turn signals - oh well, whatever floats your boat). He was consuming ~ 425 wh/mile on our little trip.

He said the regen braking had only 2 settings (3 with 'off'?) and he really wanted something in the middle. Maybe a future SW upgrade? He talked about how you end up doing 'one pedal' driving, as you feather the accel pedal to control braking, and only apply brakes near the end of a stop. We discussed whether this might create a problem in an emergency - if you are thinking about using your right foot as active braking on the accel pedal, in an emergency, might you just stomp on the accel instead of moving to the brake pedal? After all, your brain is already thinking "I'm braking". He thought it might be a problem. And considering you'd be at 60 mph in a few seconds, that could be a big problem very fast! (if it were to happen).

As far as the quietness of an EV, there were only two times I noticed it. Not at road speeds, I expect a $70,000+ car to be pretty quiet, and we heard road and wind noise. I can't say it was noticeable quieter than any decently quiet car with an ICE. Even my lower end car does not produce much engine noise while cruising.

So of course, we had to experience the accel. This surprised me - he hit it, and my reaction was, literally - "is that all there is"? Yes, I was pushed back in my seat, and I know it accel faster than any car I'd ever been in, but w/o engine noise, it just did not seem exciting. A personal thing I guess, some will miss it, others will think it's cool to accel w/o the "rrrrrooooaarrrrr". But again, I don't understand why anyone wants sub 4 second 0-60 times in a street vehicle anyhow, I'm just not the target audience for that.

The only other time I was aware of 'quiet' was when they dropped us off, and there was no idling engine sound. Again, to me, kind of a pro/con thing, it makes a bystander sort of unaware that there is an active car nearby. I recall discussions about having EVs make some artificial noise to keep pedestrians aware of their presence, have not heard about that lately.

He did a short example of Auto-pilot. He and his wife (it is actually her car) were sort of not thrilled with it. They said it keeps you right in the middle of the lane and that felt awkward to them, I guess with no oncoming traffic, we tend to move a bit to the middle to avoid stuff on the side of the road? Not quite sure about their issue with that, but they seemed to not want to trust it much. Maybe they need more time with it.

His wife actually prefers her GMC truck. That's not a knock against a Model S, they are just different vehicles, and she likes sitting up high. But maybe it's telling that the Tesla didn't impress her so much that she fell in love with it?

My wife also likes higher vehicles, we both thought it was a little hard to get in/out of the S. But that's compared to our crossover style cars.

He has had it glitch out on him about 3x a week, radio stuck, heat full on, indicates it is in Park but it is in Reverse, lots of odd things that required the extended "Control-Alt-Delete" procedure to clear up. The latest when he was backing into the garage. He almost hit the wall before he realized the sensors had glitched out, and were not giving him the warning that he was near the back wall. He seems to think this will 'clear up', as he heard that was the case with someone else he knows with a Tesla, but I told him he's got the SW updates that they probably got at the time, so there is something wrong.

His wife mentioned that her boss also has a Tesla, and he had to unexpectedly leave it parked in the lot at work for a few days in the cold. Battery was so low, he needed some sort of service to come and get it going for him before he could get it to a charger.

He will be taking it on a longer trip soon, where he needs to rely on a Supercharger. We'll see how that goes.

He didn't seem to think there any fit-finish issues like we've heard about with recent Model 3s. And he seems to like it, said if he gets another it will have Ludicrous mode. So he's really into the performance end of it, not sure anything else really matters much to him. He has another Cobra kit car, no heater, no radio, etc - just an engine, shell, seats and wheels. Different strokes, and all.

When we got out of the restaurant, I asked him to 'summon' the car. He said he didn't think it would work more than ~ 50 feet away? Or maybe he just didn't trust it? I kidded him that I can 'summon' my car too, as long as I can walk up to it. :LOL:

I'll be curious what he thinks after he has more time with it. Like I said, I'm just not interested in spending that much for a car, so it doesn't mean much to me.

But I will still be watching future EV developments. I know some here think I'm anti-EV, but I'm not. I just don't like to let questionable information/claims go unchallenged, regardless the subject. We will probably replace DWs car in a few years - maybe a lower priced EV on the market by then would fit our needs? I've always felt that there are many things that are attractive about EVs, and when the cost comes down to our range, they will be in consideration. But I still hesitate over things like depreciation (if newer models come down in price as much as the fans expect), and battery life on lower cost models (I know Telsa batteries have held up well). And even though we don't drive much, and rarely take longer trips, the whole range thing still bugs me. Maybe I'm being pig-headed about that, but apples-to-apples with an ICE/hybrid, I just hate having this limitation, because you just never know when you might need it, and may not have the time to plan for it. It has happened to me before, just gas up and go.

So there you go, FWIW.

-ERD50
 
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ERD50, nice review. I have two retired friends (really "meetup" ones) who have Model S's and they are for the wife also. THey (the men) have lost enthusiasm for EV's with all of the limitations on long distance travel. The two guys drive pickups. Maybe it's the older crowd (us over 65) that can't get too worked up about these expensive toys?

A close friend's son just bought a Model 3 and said he will be bringing it to our morning coffee group soon to show it off. I'll certainly give it a close look over and report back if I get the chance.

Like you said, there may be a time when a used Leaf EV or similar may be of interest for us when only local travel is all we do, but for now, I like the convenience of gasoline and the ease of refueling.
 
A while back, I mentioned that a friend of mine bought a Tesla Model S, and I said I'd update the thread when I got a chance to get a ride and get some info from him.

So they picked us up this w/e and we went out to dinner. So only about a 10 minute ride each way, so this is really a mini-mini impression/review. And keep in mind, even though I'm interested in technology, and know a fair amount about cars, I just never got the bug to own a performance car. To me, a car is something to spend the least amount of money on to get me reliably from A to B in reasonable comfort and safety. I don't think of cars as status symbols, I just don't care about that.

He mentioned that he got the S because he didn't like the Model 3, he said the interior looked like something out of a Dodge Neon (his words, not mine). As we got in the car, his wife warned us that she had got her hand caught in the door handle a couple times, be careful. I didn't really know what that was about, but thought it was kinda weird...

He didn't seem to think there any fit-finish issues like we've heard about with recent Model 3s. And he seems to like it, said if he gets another it will have Ludicrous mode. So he's really into the performance end of it, not sure anything else really matters much to him. He has another Cobra kit car, no heater, no radio, etc - just an engine, shell, seats and wheels. Different strokes, and all...

So there you go, FWIW.

-ERD50

The above is why I've seen some "car guys" in their reviews recommend a used Model S over a new Model 3.
 
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