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Old 04-18-2018, 04:39 PM   #141
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Lots of drama on TSLA this week. It seems like there is no bad news for this stock since ANY news seems to cause it to rise. I hear there's a blog claiming it's due to trading algorithms that react to any Tesla news and buy buy buy.
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Old 04-18-2018, 08:08 PM   #142
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"Some parts suppliers will be unwilling or unable to achieve this level of precision. I understand that this will be considered an unreasonable request by some," it said. "That's ok, there are lots of other car companies with much lower standards. They just can't work with Tesla." He also categorized some contractors' performance as being "worse than a drunken sloth," and said they would all have one week to "demonstrate excellence."
I have worked close to assembly lines for many years. I have also been around many suppliers.

The arrogance displayed in the quotes from yesterday sound like the factory manager tyrants from 40 years ago. In my experience, you can only pull a rabbit out of the hat a few times. You run your mouth like that and the odds of pulling an alligator out of the hat increase.

Maybe he has a supply base that is subservient enough to kowtow and 'shape up in one week'. There was an article showing pallets upon pallets of parts waiting to be reworked, all sporting names of manufacturers from China. All of that floating inventory is not going to rework itself.
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Old 04-18-2018, 08:45 PM   #143
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You must be talking about this article:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/13/tesl...or-rework.html

In the news, Musk recently called for 3 shifts working 7 days a week. Tesla will also be adding 400 new workers a week for several weeks.
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Old 04-18-2018, 09:14 PM   #144
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Musk is sounding desperate and maybe in denial?

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Old 04-18-2018, 09:26 PM   #145
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I guess this could go in the SDC thread, but I'm here, and it is mainly Tesla related (fairly long article):

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/04...ire-for-tesla/

Quote:
Tesla has an Autopilot problem, and it goes far beyond the fallout from last month's deadly crash in Mountain View, California.

Tesla charges $5,000 for Autopilot's lane-keeping and advanced cruise control features. On top of that, customers can pay $3,000 for what Tesla describes as "Full Self-Driving Capability."

"All you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go," Tesla's ordering page says. "Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigate urban streets (even without lane markings), manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs and roundabouts, and handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed."

The problem is that Tesla hasn't created the technology yet. Indeed, the company could be years away from completing work on it, and some experts doubt it will ever be possible to achieve full self-driving capabilities with the hardware installed on today's Tesla vehicles.

"It's a vastly more difficult problem than most people realize," said Sam Abuelsamid, an analyst at Navigant Research and a former auto industry engineer.


Tesla has a history of pre-selling products based on optimistic delivery schedules. .... But that strategy could backfire hugely when it comes to Autopilot.
They go on to talk about Tesla's lack of lidar.


RE - SDC levels 1-5 (bold mine):
Quote:
This framework encourages people to view driver-assistance systems and fully self-driving cars as two points on a continuous spectrum. That's also the implicit assumption of Tesla's Autopilot strategy. The company is selling a driver-assistance system today, but it plans to use software updates to gradually turn it into a fully self-driving system. But there's growing reason to think this is a mistake—that it's better to think of driver-assistance technologies and full self-driving cars as distinct systems.

In driver-assistance systems, a human driver is expected to pay attention 100 percent of the time and correct any mistakes the driver assistance system makes. In contrast, a fully self-driving system is built on the assumption that a human driver will never need to take over.

Systems in the middle—with human driver and software both sharing some responsibility—are a safety hazard. Once a self-driving system gets pretty good, humans start to trust it and stop paying attention to the road. This can happen long before the system is actually safer than a human driver, leading to more fatalities rather than fewer.

That's the conclusion Google reached several years ago when it shifted from building driver-assistance technology to building cars that are designed to be fully autonomous from the start. The company's current plan is to offer a driverless taxi service that won't even allow passengers to take the wheel.
I think that's just human nature (to drift off if the car is handling much of the task), and it is what we have seen already. Taht's going to be a big problem I think, unless they change course.

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Old 04-18-2018, 10:09 PM   #146
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Yes.

As I have said numerous times in the other SDC thread, Tesla's "fully autonomous" Autopilot is vaporware. It's that simple. Buyers can hold their breath to wait for software update, but it will never come. The hardware is weak and incomplete.

Musk's ridiculous sales pitch on the imaginary autonomous autopilot has caused key engineers to quit. I wonder who will deliver Musk's grandiose plan.

PS. Tesla cars are not bad, from what I have read. But perhaps Musk thought that the autopilot would be the distinguishing feature to separate his cars from other EVs, and he sold it hard.
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Old 04-19-2018, 05:27 AM   #147
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Here's one for you. Easy to say and do if you're Musk, not so easy if you're not !

Elon Musk productivity tip: Leave meetings if they're not productive - Business Insider
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Old 04-19-2018, 06:40 AM   #148
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Here's one for you. Easy to say and do if you're Musk, not so easy if you're not !

Elon Musk productivity tip: Leave meetings if they're not productive - Business Insider
Just leave or hang up? That's the road to "pursuing new career choices", aka unemployment.
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Old 04-19-2018, 06:47 AM   #149
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Welp:

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We will keep going until the Model 3 build precision is a factor of ten better than any other car in the world.
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Old 04-19-2018, 10:57 PM   #150
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The memo Musk wrote is incredibly self indicting. He promised 5000 cars/wk on 10 shifts but now plans on 6000/wk on 21 shifts. You can't run 24/7 without an extra crew / overtime so margins go down. How do you train 400 new hires per week to produce a quality product in 8 weeks if you can even find them
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Old 04-21-2018, 02:38 PM   #151
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"Humans are underrated" - Elon Musk on 4/14/2018

By you, Elon, not by others.

The context was in his own admission that his effort to over-automate his factory misfired. My career was in aerospace, something that is always low-volume and high-priced, and I was in R&D at that. So, I do not know much about mass production, but have read that Musk tried to do something other car makers tried and abandoned.

It is true that unless one pushes the envelope, no progress can be made. But on the other hand, one must also be smart enough to know what others have tried before, in order to attempt to improve on it. Why re-learn mistakes from the past?

Of course, one can also be so arrogant to think that others failed because they did not know what they were doing. If one sets out to prove to others that they are wrong, without knowing exactly what they did or have done, the chance of repeating the same mistakes will be high.
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Old 04-21-2018, 03:41 PM   #152
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After waiting more than 2 years since I put my deposit down, my Model 3 is now ready for delivery. The only problem is, I don't really want it any more. I think there are others in the same situation. The car I thought I was buying was $35K, but now the car has been "upgraded" and the real price (with autopilot) is $54,000.

I'm sure there are still enough people out there willing to pay the $54,000 price for a while, but at some point I think they are going to run through those sales and the folks who are left are going to want their $35K car, which may or may not even materialize.

So I guess I'm just going to sit on it for now and do nothing. DH looked at the car in the showroom and thought the interior looked cheap and plastic like. I have to somewhat agree. It's a decent interior for a $35K car, but not for a $54K car.
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Old 04-21-2018, 03:42 PM   #153
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It is a rare thing that a true "visionary" is also a great manager--the attributes required to be outstanding at each just don't overlap very much. And being a great leader (as opposed to a great manager) requires yet another set of attributes. So a guy like Musk usually requires a top notch team of others, and the willingness to accept their advice. I don't know if that is happening at Tesla--by Musk's previous predictions/pronouncements, it appears that it is not.

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Old 04-21-2018, 07:42 PM   #154
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Thoughts on TESLA

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After waiting more than 2 years since I put my deposit down, my Model 3 is now ready for delivery. The only problem is, I don't really want it any more. I think there are others in the same situation. The car I thought I was buying was $35K, but now the car has been "upgraded" and the real price (with autopilot) is $54,000.



I'm sure there are still enough people out there willing to pay the $54,000 price for a while, but at some point I think they are going to run through those sales and the folks who are left are going to want their $35K car, which may or may not even materialize.



So I guess I'm just going to sit on it for now and do nothing. DH looked at the car in the showroom and thought the interior looked cheap and plastic like. I have to somewhat agree. It's a decent interior for a $35K car, but not for a $54K car.


What happens if you don't complete the purchase? I'm sure there are lots of folks that would jump at the chance to buy it. Your thoughts summarize hundreds of posts on seekingalpha (mostly from short sellers).
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Old 04-22-2018, 06:53 AM   #155
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It is a rare thing that a true "visionary" is also a great manager--the attributes required to be outstanding at each just don't overlap very much. And being a great leader (as opposed to a great manager) requires yet another set of attributes. So a guy like Musk usually requires a top notch team of others, and the willingness to accept their advice. I don't know if that is happening at Tesla--by Musk's previous predictions/pronouncements, it appears that it is not.
+1. Good article in Bloomberg this week concerning Tesla and their production issues. As long as Musk keeps over promising on production numbers without addressing the root cause(s), I don't see things going anywhere but downhill.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...on-again-video
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Old 04-22-2018, 09:00 AM   #156
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What happens if you don't complete the purchase? I'm sure there are lots of folks that would jump at the chance to buy it. Your thoughts summarize hundreds of posts on seekingalpha (mostly from short sellers).
I could just cancel and get my $1,000 deposit back. I could buy the car and try to resell it for a profit, but I can't be bothered with that. I could try and sell the position, but that gets sticky because Tesla will only let me transfer the position to a family member. Or I can just sit tight and let my position ride and see if I change my mind if they begin building the $35K base model.

They have no cars to test drive. Perhaps if I had a chance to drive one I might change my mind. It seems ridiculous to expect me to buy a car that I can't drive first, but that's pretty much where Tesla is right now with the Model 3. They suggested I test drive one of their S cars, but in my mind that's a very different car and wouldn't tell me anything about the driving experience of a Model 3.
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Old 04-22-2018, 09:08 AM   #157
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That my tax dollars are going to this company to the tune of $7500 per car. What a waste.
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Old 04-22-2018, 10:52 AM   #158
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Of course, one can also be so arrogant to think that others failed because they did not know what they were doing. If one sets out to prove to others that they are wrong, without knowing exactly what they did or have done, the chance of repeating the same mistakes will be high.
I have a fellow graduate who thinks he knows better than anyone. So he continually reinvents the wheel and is then amazed!
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Old 04-22-2018, 11:47 AM   #159
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I could just cancel and get my $1,000 deposit back. I could buy the car and try to resell it for a profit, but I can't be bothered with that. I could try and sell the position, but that gets sticky because Tesla will only let me transfer the position to a family member. Or I can just sit tight and let my position ride and see if I change my mind if they begin building the $35K base model.

They have no cars to test drive. Perhaps if I had a chance to drive one I might change my mind. It seems ridiculous to expect me to buy a car that I can't drive first, but that's pretty much where Tesla is right now with the Model 3. They suggested I test drive one of their S cars, but in my mind that's a very different car and wouldn't tell me anything about the driving experience of a Model 3.
Your observations on the list price vs. base price were spot on with comments from other Tesla boards. One other component of the price is the expiration of the tax credit which is forecast to be around 3Q18 when Tesla hits 200k deliveries (I think). That gives you something to leverage if you even want to deal with the hassle factor.
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Old 04-22-2018, 02:02 PM   #160
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Just leave or hang up? That's the road to "pursuing new career choices", aka unemployment.
Reminds me of what Jamie Dimon would preach at JPM/Chase. Jamie's changed the tune a bit now by calling for meetings to have an agenda. But either way, you don't show up then your manager gets a call. You explain to your manager why you didn't attend or left meeting early and it's then told to you to just "be a team player". Sound bites from Musk and Dimon are just that and sound great in headlines and message to shareholders, but in reality have to teeth to it.
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