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Old 01-10-2019, 10:28 AM   #1921
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Originally Posted by ERD50 So what about the other points in that post? Do you agree that it indicates that a current best-in-class hybrid would be about on par, if not better, than an EV on 100% NG electric? I am extrapolating a bit, their chart just says "hybrid" and the study is a few years old, so I'm assuming they meant an average hybrid of the time, and a current best-in-class would be significantly better mpg. Any their chart shows a hybrid to be pretty close, only a little worse, than an EV on 100% NG.-ERD50
As I have said before, I have no beef with hybrids. They are necessary until full EVs can overcome high cost and charging issues (cross-country and street charging). Once the charging issues are negated (over time) the incentive to use a hybrid disappears (as will their sales).

I am sure that we can find a scenario where hybrids are very close or better than EVs when looking at emissions (perhaps in WV). I have not seen any current study that supports your notion that an EV powered by NG electricity is more polluting, however. This .gov website breaks down emissions both nationally and by state. It does not support your contention unless the state is heavily coal dependent:

https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/ele...emissions.html

Assuming that the near term future of electric power is with NG or RE and not with coal, this will also be true for the needed "marginal" power generated in the future. If you have a credible study that shows NG electricity is dirtier than a hybrid using gasoline, then I am certainly open to hear more.

Edit: By the way, If actual hybrid sales are any indication, most people don't really care whether hybrids are more or less polluting when they buy an EV (I know I won't). That makes this discussion somewhat irrelevant.
Thanks for providing an actual reference and data. There are however, two very important disconnects between that study and what we were discussing.

A) That study only measures CO2 as 'emissions', it doesn't account for the external costs of NOx and SOx (acid rain, smog, etc) and particulates. The NAS study I quoted shows both, and shows them separately.

B) It shows averages of the sources of power on each grid, so it's really difficult/impossible to parse out the effects of charging EVs with the additional marginal power that will be required. I don't think marginal power will be coming from low-CO2 nukes (those are run at high capacity factor to recover capital costs and low fuel costs), I don't think there will be expansion of hydro (more likely it will decrease due to environmental concerns), so that won't meet extra demand. RE is till a very small portion and will be for a very long time, so won't provide marginal power. The most likely source to charge EVs is relatively clean NG (which you agreed with in post #1874), and it will likely be supplemented with a bit of coal at night on some grids.

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Originally Posted by oneill225 View Post
... Regarding "marginal" increases in electricity generation, those will be gas plants, as you suggest, ....

So the report is interesting, but really not all that relevant, due to the above limitations (CO2 only and use of 'averages').

As I keep showing you, the source I keep posting shows the hybrid in their study isn't that far from an EV on NG . Hybrids have improved since that study, and keep improving, so the gap is narrowing, maybe eliminated by now with the best hybrids, especially if even a small % of coal is mixed in to that marginal power generation.




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.... Edit: By the way, If actual hybrid sales are any indication, most people don't really care whether hybrids are more or less polluting when they buy an EV (I know I won't). That makes this discussion somewhat irrelevant.
I don't see how a sales trend can inform you on the reason for those sales. Car companies need to match fleet CAFE limits, so hybrids play a part in that.

The discussion isn't moot, as long as people and subsidies are promoting EVs as 'planet savers', even if you personally don't care.

Hmmm, this source says hybrids are expected to grow. That growth may well be less than EV growth, but that probably has more to do with where each is on the growth curve.

https://www.marketwatch.com/press-re...023-2018-11-19



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Nov 19, 2018 (Heraldkeeper via COMTEX) -- Hybrid System Market For Automotive to grow at 11.25% compound annual growth rate by 2018 to 2023,
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Old 01-10-2019, 10:51 AM   #1922
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As I keep showing you, the source I keep posting shows the hybrid in their study isn't that far from an EV on NG . Hybrids have improved since that study, and keep improving, so the gap is narrowing, maybe eliminated by now with the best hybrids, especially if even a small % of coal is mixed in to that marginal power generation.



The discussion isn't moot, as long as people and subsidies are promoting EVs as 'planet savers', even if you personally don't care.
Hmmm, this source says hybrids are expected to grow. That growth may well be less than EV growth, but that probably has more to do with where each is on the growth curve.
I get it. You don't like subsidies, but the fact is that they exist due to global warming hype and they are likely to continue in the near future. Ironically, Tesla is now losing a number of subsidies due to their success. So, your apparent beef against Tesla getting subsidies should be fading. Maybe start a new thread that attacks subsidies instead of doing it on the stock picking thread. I really don't see the point in feeling sorry for hybrids. They will do fine until EVs can be charged faster and more ubiquitously.
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Old 01-10-2019, 11:12 AM   #1923
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Perhaps some entrepreneur type will open his/her own EV repair shop. Then after developing it into a great success, he/she will franchise the business and be FIREd by 35.

The above scenario begs the question: Can an independent shop buy repair parts from Tesla? Or equivalent parts from a 3rd party?
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Old 01-10-2019, 01:11 PM   #1924
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Perhaps some entrepreneur type will open his/her own EV repair shop. Then after developing it into a great success, he/she will franchise the business and be FIREd by 35.

The above scenario begs the question: Can an independent shop buy repair parts from Tesla?
As far as I know, no.

Quote:
Or equivalent parts from a 3rd party?
I saw on YouTube videos some references to after-market parts for innocuous things like door latches or lock mechanisms that tend to break. But when it comes to major electrical parts, I don't know if it is safe to use 3rd-party parts. This problem will be with all EVs.

Eventually self-driving cars will have even more critical sensors and electronics whose performance can affect safety in manners not as visible as mechanical parts. This applies to all new cars, not just Tesla's.
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Old 01-10-2019, 01:31 PM   #1925
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Perhaps some entrepreneur type will open his/her own EV repair shop. Then after developing it into a great success, he/she will franchise the business and be FIREd by 35.

The above scenario begs the question: Can an independent shop buy repair parts from Tesla? Or equivalent parts from a 3rd party?
I've repaired many a car and still restore an occasional classic when I find one on the cheap (last year's 1971 VW Beetle for example). Chinese manufacturers are selling low quality copies of many auto parts, even turbochargers. I about went nuts last year trying to buy VW parts for my Beetle that actually fit and worked. The last good quality parts for older Beetles were made in Brazil, but those were unobtainable, for the most part.

I would suspect that once enough Teslas are sold, the Chinese will start selling knock off parts. They do that now for just about all car makes. Check eBay and you will see. Or even but parts at a Autozone and most likely you will get Chinese ones.
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Old 01-10-2019, 01:39 PM   #1926
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Originally Posted by ERD50
As I keep showing you, the source I keep posting shows the hybrid in their study isn't that far from an EV on NG . Hybrids have improved since that study, and keep improving, so the gap is narrowing, maybe eliminated by now with the best hybrids, especially if even a small % of coal is mixed in to that marginal power generation.

This image has been resized. Click this bar to view the full image. The original image is sized %1%2.

The discussion isn't moot, as long as people and subsidies are promoting EVs as 'planet savers', even if you personally don't care.
Hmmm, this source says hybrids are expected to grow. That growth may well be less than EV growth, but that probably has more to do with where each is on the growth curve.
I get it. You don't like subsidies, but the fact is that they exist due to global warming hype and they are likely to continue in the near future. Ironically, Tesla is now losing a number of subsidies due to their success. So, your apparent beef against Tesla getting subsidies should be fading. Maybe start a new thread that attacks subsidies instead of doing it on the stock picking thread. I really don't see the point in feeling sorry for hybrids. They will do fine until EVs can be charged faster and more ubiquitously.
So once again - rather than acknowledging the point that there may be little/no environmental difference with EVs charging on NG versus hybrids, you divert and focus on my passing comment on subsidies.

Would it really kill you to just say it - "You're right, there may be little/no environmental difference with EVs charging on NG versus hybrids"?

Who is 'feeling sorry for hybrids'?

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Old 01-10-2019, 04:42 PM   #1927
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So once again - rather than acknowledging the point that there may be little/no environmental difference with EVs charging on NG versus hybrids, you divert and focus on my passing comment on subsidies.
Would it really kill you to just say it - "You're right, there may be little/no environmental difference with EVs charging on NG versus hybrids"?
Who is 'feeling sorry for hybrids'?-ERD50
Hybrids get close, but EVs are better if we are talking about natural gas fueled electricity. As far as performance, hybrids are not even close. Hybrids are fine, I just don't want one. Enjoy yours.
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Old 01-10-2019, 05:27 PM   #1928
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Originally Posted by ERD50 ...
Would it really kill you to just say it - "You're right, there may be little/no environmental difference with EVs charging on NG versus hybrids"? ...-ERD50
Hybrids get close, but EVs are better if we are talking about natural gas fueled electricity. ...
Close enough, I'll take it,. Thanks!

Yes, they appear to be close, and it is probably splitting hairs to know if the best hybrids are better, and what the future will bring. My overall point is it is no slam-dunk for the EV.


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... As far as performance, hybrids are not even close. Hybrids are fine, I just don't want one. Enjoy yours.
The modern hybrids probably have good enough performance for most people. But that's a personal decision.

Since we put so few miles on our cars, I don't think a the extra stuff' that has to be added for a hybrid would make economic or environmental sense for me. Probably the same for the environmental hit of the battery for an EV. But I'm interested in the technology of each. So people can decide based on their needs/wants. I just like good information, so it's a good decision.


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Old 01-10-2019, 05:53 PM   #1929
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This thread has become very granularly focused on how green EVs are or how their fuel efficiency compares to ICE cars. The original post was to discuss thoughts on Tesla. While Tesla is an EV, and it will at some point compare to EVs coming out from Jaguar, Audi, Hyundai, and others, there is so much more to Tesla than just comparing EV specs.

I have not seen anyone match the level of technology integrated into Tesla vehicles. They have implemented so many features into their vehicles that are new to the automotive market. And what I think makes the real story here is that Tesla is a startup car manufacturer. Itís been more than 50 years since anyone has successfully built a new car brand from scratch. And while American luxury cars have faded into the background against names like BMW, Mercedes, Audi and Lexus, Tesla has managed to be the number one brand for luxury car sales last year, primarily with a car they just started building in volume in the past six months. I think itís fantastic to see an American car company taking the spotlight away from the Japanese and German brands. Letís give credit to Elon Musk for having the vision, and the nerve, to think he could build a brand new car company from scratch and have it leapfrog the best brands in the world in just ten years.

This is the real story to be told about Tesla, in my opinion.
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Old 01-10-2019, 06:10 PM   #1930
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This thread has become very granularly focused on how green EVs are or how their fuel efficiency compares to ICE cars. The original post was to discuss thoughts on Tesla. While Tesla is an EV, and it will at some point compare to EVs coming out from Jaguar, Audi, Hyundai, and others, there is so much more to Tesla than just comparing EV specs.

I have not seen anyone match the level of technology integrated into Tesla vehicles. They have implemented so many features into their vehicles that are new to the automotive market. And what I think makes the real story here is that Tesla is a startup car manufacturer. Itís been more than 50 years since anyone has successfully built a new car brand from scratch. And while American luxury cars have faded into the background against names like BMW, Mercedes, Audi and Lexus, Tesla has managed to be the number one brand for luxury car sales last year, primarily with a car they just started building in volume in the past six months. I think itís fantastic to see an American car company taking the spotlight away from the Japanese and German brands. Letís give credit to Elon Musk for having the vision, and the nerve, to think he could build a brand new car company from scratch and have it leapfrog the best brands in the world in just ten years.

This is the real story to be told about Tesla, in my opinion.
I have to somewhat agree. The car is really secondary to the fact that he actually pulled it off and didn't sink (at least yet). His ability to raise money was the key. Look at Delorean and others who tried this. What failed them was running out of money and not being able to scale up production.

The big car guys can hire the engineers and develop similar cars, but what gets in their way is corporate greed and policies, the need to make money (now), thinking outside the "box" and actually acting on that thinking, and the internal effects of THe Peter Principle (LOL).
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Old 01-10-2019, 07:13 PM   #1931
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I've repaired many a car and still restore an occasional classic when I find one on the cheap (last year's 1971 VW Beetle for example). Chinese manufacturers are selling low quality copies of many auto parts, even turbochargers. I about went nuts last year trying to buy VW parts for my Beetle that actually fit and worked. The last good quality parts for older Beetles were made in Brazil, but those were unobtainable, for the most part.

I would suspect that once enough Teslas are sold, the Chinese will start selling knock off parts. They do that now for just about all car makes. Check eBay and you will see. Or even but parts at a Autozone and most likely you will get Chinese ones.
And remember that Tesla is opening a factory in China. Any tech they donít have already will be stolen and copied shortly. Then youíll see the improvements in their EVs and parts galore for the Tesla. At Megacorp we saw them doing it for steam turbines. They did crater one but eventually they got it right.
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Old 01-10-2019, 07:24 PM   #1932
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I have to somewhat agree. The car is really secondary to the fact that he actually pulled it off and didn't sink (at least yet). His ability to raise money was the key. Look at Delorean and others who tried this. What failed them was running out of money and not being able to scale up production.

The big car guys can hire the engineers and develop similar cars, but what gets in their way is corporate greed and policies, the need to make money (now), thinking outside the "box" and actually acting on that thinking, and the internal effects of THe Peter Principle (LOL).
+1 to that! Anyone who can create thousands of American jobs that ďwere never coming backĒ needs to be congratulated. There are likely few that could have pulled this off. If they were set up as say a GM division, the bureaucracy would have strangled them before they ever got off the ground.

If only Delorean could have sold a little more coke...
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Old 01-10-2019, 11:35 PM   #1933
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This thread has become very granularly focused on how green EVs are or how their fuel efficiency compares to ICE cars. The original post was to discuss thoughts on Tesla. While Tesla is an EV, and it will at some point compare to EVs coming out from Jaguar, Audi, Hyundai, and others, there is so much more to Tesla than just comparing EV specs.

I have not seen anyone match the level of technology integrated into Tesla vehicles. They have implemented so many features into their vehicles that are new to the automotive market. And what I think makes the real story here is that Tesla is a startup car manufacturer. It’s been more than 50 years since anyone has successfully built a new car brand from scratch. And while American luxury cars have faded into the background against names like BMW, Mercedes, Audi and Lexus, Tesla has managed to be the number one brand for luxury car sales last year, primarily with a car they just started building in volume in the past six months. I think it’s fantastic to see an American car company taking the spotlight away from the Japanese and German brands. Let’s give credit to Elon Musk for having the vision, and the nerve, to think he could build a brand new car company from scratch and have it leapfrog the best brands in the world in just ten years.

This is the real story to be told about Tesla, in my opinion.

+2

Absolutely.
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Old 01-11-2019, 08:52 AM   #1934
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This thread has become very granularly focused on how green EVs are or how their fuel efficiency compares to ICE cars. The original post was to discuss thoughts on Tesla. While Tesla is an EV, and it will at some point compare to EVs coming out from Jaguar, Audi, Hyundai, and others, there is so much more to Tesla than just comparing EV specs.

I have not seen anyone match the level of technology integrated into Tesla vehicles. They have implemented so many features into their vehicles that are new to the automotive market. And what I think makes the real story here is that Tesla is a startup car manufacturer. Itís been more than 50 years since anyone has successfully built a new car brand from scratch. And while American luxury cars have faded into the background against names like BMW, Mercedes, Audi and Lexus, Tesla has managed to be the number one brand for luxury car sales last year, primarily with a car they just started building in volume in the past six months. I think itís fantastic to see an American car company taking the spotlight away from the Japanese and German brands. Letís give credit to Elon Musk for having the vision, and the nerve, to think he could build a brand new car company from scratch and have it leapfrog the best brands in the world in just ten years.

This is the real story to be told about Tesla, in my opinion.
I've also commented on this in the past, probably even more enthusiastically than you just did. I think I used the words like "blown away", "very impressed". "almost impossible" that Musk was able to pull this off to this level. They are shipping cars in volume, and a lot of people really, really like them (sure, they have some problems like any start up). That enthusiasm is softened somewhat by the fact that they have been supported not only by customer subsidies, but (and I'd need to look up the numbers) also "zero-pollution" credits from other manufacturers who were not producing those vehicles up to certain State quotas. But it is still super impressive.


Now, why hasn't this been discussed so much? Simply because most people agree. There's isn't much more to say about it once it's stated, there is little debate. So that's a good thing, right?

On the other hand, some of the comments about EVs being 'green', that EVs will be 50% of sales in just a few years, that charging at a Supercharger is at least 2x to 4x cheaper than fueling with gasoline, that people buying ICE/hybrids today will need to worry about finding a gas station, that it's 'easy' to solve the lack of charging access for the many people who park on the street or a parking lot at an apartment, or that it's easy to provide all the kWh required for a massive shift to EVs and still have a high % of RE, and probably a few others I'm forgetting.... those are certainly debatable, and will trigger debate.

Maybe if some of the EV fans here tempered their statements, and made sure they were fact based and clearly defensible, and simply acknowledged when/if they are wrong, instead of dragging it out with diversion and circular logic, there would be far less discussion of those topics - they would be accepted. The ball is pretty much in their court.

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Old 01-11-2019, 09:32 AM   #1935
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This is a troubling statistic:
4Q shipments fall off leaving over 7000 unsold Model 3s
and that is also the final quarter of full EV rebates.
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Old 01-11-2019, 10:33 AM   #1936
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This is a troubling statistic:
4Q shipments fall off leaving over 7000 unsold Model 3s
and that is also the final quarter of full EV rebates.
Source
As this author notes, the "excess" inventory could be cars configured for China and/or EU when those markets open to the Model 3. Reading more into it seems a bit premature.

Meanwhile: Another analysis projecting continued dominance in the electric market by Tesla in 2019.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-...ays-j-d-power/
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Old 01-11-2019, 10:35 AM   #1937
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This is a troubling statistic:
4Q shipments fall off leaving over 7000 unsold Model 3s
and that is also the final quarter of full EV rebates.
Source
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Old 01-11-2019, 12:35 PM   #1938
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As this author notes, the "excess" inventory could be cars configured for China and/or EU when those markets open to the Model 3. Reading more into it seems a bit premature. ...
Could be, but...

Does that really make sense, considering Tesla was in the last quarter of the full $7,500 tax credit here in the US? It would seem they would want to book every sale they could before they cut prices for 2019:

https://electrek.co/2019/01/02/tesla...redit-model-3/
Quote:
With the start of the new year, Tesla buyers in the US now don’t have access to the full $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicles, but the automaker appears to have compensated by reducing the price of all its models in the US.
Seems like China/EU could wait a few weeks (edit to clarify: wait a few weeks until after US Q4 orders are filled) while Tesla burns that inventory at premium prices in the US.

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Old 01-11-2019, 12:51 PM   #1939
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Seems like China/EU could wait a few weeks while Tesla burns that inventory at premium prices in the US.-ERD50
This story seems to support the idea that Tesla is starting to ship large numbers overseas. Doesn't look like they are waiting.

https://electrek.co/2019/01/11/tesla...ea-deliveries/
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Old 01-11-2019, 01:15 PM   #1940
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This story seems to support the idea that Tesla is starting to ship large numbers overseas. Doesn't look like they are waiting.

https://electrek.co/2019/01/11/tesla...ea-deliveries/

I edited my previous post to clarify:

Seems like China/EU could wait a few weeks (edit to clarify: wait a few weeks until after US Q4 orders are filled) while Tesla burns that inventory at premium prices in the US.

Of course they would not just wait to fill orders to China/EU. But it does seem they would wait until after they filled the Q4 US orders before they drop prices Jan 1.


Quote:
A massive number of Tesla Model 3 vehicles have been spotted being gathered by the automaker at the San Francisco port ahead initial oversea deliveries.
....

Quote:
It is estimated to easily be over 1,000 units.
> 1000 units? Massive? Isn't that one or two days production? This is the 11th, plenty of time to make them after Q4 sales to US.

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