Thoughts on TESLA

[calmloki]

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Originally Posted by Chuckanut My guess is that at some point Tesla will be purchased by a major auto company for its technology. To bad as that will probably be the kiss of death for Tesla. Mr. Musk has made it clear that in the long run his BIG goal is SpaceX. He wants to insure the survival of the human race in case that asteroid that messes up our Firecalc tested plans really does hit us.

Thinking of another thread - does that make Tesla a company to buy for a biblical based portfolio? Seems like trying to ensure the survival of the human race is pretty good without having any pesky sect slant.

[Texas Proud]

Right now the value of Tesla is based on hope... not fundamentals....

If you have hope for the stock, then buy... the worst you can do is lose 1X... if he does pan out then you will make more than 1X.... if he does not... well, you know your max loss...

[mpeirce]

> He does over promise on timelines, but the results are there.

In my experience, the really ambitious folks always overpromise on timelines. It motivates a good team. Kinda of destroys home life though. Of course a nice work/home balance isn't what these companies are all about.

[rocketjockey]

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpeirce > He does over promise on timelines, but the results are there. In my experience, the really ambitious folks always overpromise on timelines. It motivates a good team. Kinda of destroys home life though. Of course a nice work/home balance isn't what these companies are all about.

Tell me about it. Look at my user name. Draw your own conclusions as to my employer!

[OldShooter]

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Originally Posted by NW-Bound +1 I never bought Amazon, or Netflix, or Google. I also never shorted them.

Wise man.

Thing #1 about growth stocks is that absolutely all statistical research says that they are bad investments. (NB: Investing involves buying and holding.) They are stocks for traders and gamblers who are hoping that there will be a greater fool to bail them out. Sometimes there is, sometimes there isn't

Thing #2 is that in discussions like this the names of "winners" get thrown around and one might start to believe that these are typical growth stocks. Instead, this is an exceptional display of survivor bias. Nobody mentions the majority of growth stocks that are losers, like JDS Uniphase and Nortel Networks. Nobody mentions the formerly-growth stocks that have regressed to the mean, leaving the traders high and dry without greater fools to sell to.

So the correct answer to the OP's question can be determined by simply asking whether he is an investor or a gambler. I don't think there is anything wrong with being a gambler if one understands that and also understands that the odds are against him/her. That's how casinios (and brokers) make their money; gamblers who think that they can beat the odds.

Full disclosure: I once owned a piece of a casino management company and made quite a bit of money from it. My gambling comprises one nickel into a slot machine each time I am forced to go to Vegas for a trade show. Yes, I lose the nickel.

[copyright1997reloaded]

While I won't short it, as many shorts are wiped out waiting for reality to set in, regardless of how well they do I can't see myself pulling the buy trigger on this (or Amazon for that matter). I'm just too conservative an investor to go for these at their premiums.

I have a decent position in Apple (six figures), but bought it when it had $13 a share in cash and was selling for $19 or so. [This was back in 2001.] That is, it was a value play. Unfortunately I sold some along the way, but was smart/luck enough to keep some.

[Fedup]

I've shorted Telsa, Amazon and made money in the past, by mostly buying puts, but a few contracts. But I watched them like a hawk. Sold them in a day or less. I usually do that on high price stocks. When I say make money, it's less than $1500, IIRC. Enough for me to buy business/ first class ticket to Euro. It's definitely Las Vegas money.

[Zathras]

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Originally Posted by Midpack IIRC, you're also a Model S car owner? If you're who I think, I know you're very knowledgeable on Tesla.

I do own a Model S and plan to replace it with a Model 3 in about a year.
My wife drives a Model X and I am also a share holder.
Thank you for the comment, I like to think I am

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut My guess is that at some point Tesla will be purchased by a major auto company for its technology. To bad as that will probably be the kiss of death for Tesla. Mr. Musk has made it clear that in the long run his BIG goal is SpaceX. He wants to insure the survival of the human race in case that asteroid that messes up our Firecalc tested plans really does hit us.

Mr. Musk's long term goal is to help insure the survival of the human race. A big part of that is SpaceX as we are currently one asteroid away from the end of mankind.
Acceleration of our transportation is another big part of the survival of mankind, or at least of our society.
While he may leave Tesla, I don't see him selling to another car company. First, the price is too high.
Second, I don't know of any manufacturers that would want Tesla Energy, which is fast becoming integral to Tesla's mission.

As for the comparison made by many, of growth stocks and gambling. It is not. It is speculative.
I suppose some may not look into the company details at all and just throw a dart to pick. Then yes, that would be gambling.
Just because you don't like growth stock investing don't dismiss it.
And yes, growth stocks are much riskier and value stocks. Many more fail, but for those that do their research, the risk is well worth it.

[JoeWras]

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Originally Posted by rocketjockey Tell me about it. Look at my user name. Draw your own conclusions as to my employer!

According to your avatar, you are the #1 tester of ACME products.

[OldShooter]

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Originally Posted by Zathras ... As for the comparison made by many, of growth stocks and gambling. It is not. It is speculative. ...

As Google gives me this for "speculative:"

"2. (of an investment) involving a high risk of loss."

Call it what you like.

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Originally Posted by Zathras ... Just because you don't like growth stock investing don't dismiss it. ...

It's not a matter of taste. The statistical fact is that as investments, growth stocks lose significantly to the overall market and even more vs small caps and value stocks.

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Originally Posted by Zathras ... And yes, growth stocks are much riskier and value stocks. Many more fail, but for those that do their research, the risk is well worth it.

There are thousands of professionals "doing their research" with far more information and far greater resources than you could possible have. Strong odds are that, at whatever price you buy or sell, your counterparty is a professional who knows more than you do. IMO small investors who believe they know more than the pros are deluding themselves.

The math remains: Winning on a few dozen trades, which certainly happens, is not statistically significant. IOW skill is indistinguishable from luck in a small sample set. If you're winning, good for you, but it's most probably due to luck.

Zathras, if you are winning that's great. But posts like this are like the casino billboards that show big winners with big checks. People do win, but statistically speaking most of them do not. Hardly anyone ever posts about how much money they lost "speculating" in growth stocks. But there is an unending supply of optimists coming through the casino (or growth stock trading) doors and on average they come out poorer than when they went in.

There is quite a good book called "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Taleb. One of his themes is people who have gotten lucky and, from that, concluded that they are geniuses. (Nassim can be kind of a lunatic, but its a worthwhile read.)

[NYEXPAT]

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Originally Posted by rocketjockey Tell me about it. Look at my user name. Draw your own conclusions as to my employer!

That was an easy one!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Looney...nes_careta.png

[NW-Bound]

Speaking of the human kind surviving by escaping into space, I recall the movie Interstellar.

[swakyaby]

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Originally Posted by Zathras I do own a Model S and plan to replace it with a Model 3 in about a year.

Curious as to why you plan to replace the Model S with a Model 3?

[Zathras]

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Originally Posted by OldShooter ... There are thousands of professionals "doing their research" with far more information and far greater resources than you could possible have. Strong odds are that, at whatever price you buy or sell, your counterparty is a professional who knows more than you do. IMO small investors who believe they know more than the pros are deluding themselves. ...

In no way was my post meant to say I thought I knew more, or even as much, as the pros.
What I was saying, is that if anyone is investing without information, that is gambling.
If you have knowledge of the company, you lower your risk. Please note I did not say "eliminate".

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Originally Posted by swakyaby Curious as to why you plan to replace the Model S with a Model 3?

The Model 3 is more efficient, less expensive and I prefer a smaller car.

[Rustic23]

For me it comes down to "If you wouldn't buy the product, don't buy the company". Tesla is on top of the EV world now. But will it be there when all the other manufactures are in? What will there sales look like when the subsidies are gone? So I would sit this one out. However, you might consider my record, I sat Apple also!

[Running_Man]

[Zathras]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rustic23 For me it comes down to "If you wouldn't buy the product, don't buy the company". Tesla is on top of the EV world now. But will it be there when all the other manufactures are in? What will there sales look like when the subsidies are gone? So I would sit this one out. However, you might consider my record, I sat Apple also!

That was my biggest concern back in 2010 and again in 2012.
Even now, there is very little competition out there.
As for incentives, I don't see that as much of an issue for Tesla.
It will slow sales somewhat, bit cars in the $35k to $140k price points will be less affected than cars shooting for the sub $30k market.
Or perhaps they will cut their 25% gross margin to 15%.

[LiveBelowMeans]

The auto industry is littered with companies that tried to break in and eventually went bankrupt. (Delorean, Bricklin etc). Having said that, what Elon and Tesla have done is a miracle. The stock valuation, however makes no sense. Insane stock price. Purely a crap shoot. Who will be left holding the bag when it implodes. JMHO

[petershk]

I have a Model X and love it. I think Tesla is a great company and I think Elon Musk has great ideas and ability to overcome huge obstacles.

I don't now and don't plan on buying any stock, though.

Why? Because I have no way of having a reasonable chance of predicting the value of the company. It COULD replace the way we use energy as we know it. It COULD go bankrupt (it almost happened on several occasions in the past and Musk talks about that honestly).

At current prices I feel that the very optimistic side of the story has to unfold for things to make sense. For me, that's something I avoid as a general rule. There ARE comparisons to Apple, but Apple was profitable pretty early on in the iPhone/iPad cycle. Making a phone where your manufacturing is outsourced and you have high margins from brand recognition and competitors that have to play catch up is VERY different than a high OPEX industry with thin profit margins and established competition. I don't think it's THAT hard for Ford, BMW, Audi, GM, etc to catch up with Tesla's technology. And I'm not sure that Tesla has a brand value that is THAT much bigger than Proshe, BMW, or Audi.

When we have fully autonomous electric Audis, BMWs and Porsches that also get 2.5 0-60s, look really cool and have all the bells and whistles, I'm not sure Tesla will be that differentiated. The supercharger network is a pretty big advantage and having huge ability to manufacture batteries is impressive as well... but both of those are high capex expenses, not profit centers.

So I don't understand where Tesla's billions of cash flow will come from and if it's from narrow margins on car sales, that's a scary bet. I think ALL of the surviving car companies have gone bankrupt wiping out share holders at one or more times in the past. I believe that Tesla will survive and will continue to make awesome technology that I will love to use, but I'm not so sure that shareholders will continue to have such a great ride.

[Car-Guy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zathras I do own a Model S and plan to replace it with a Model 3 in about a year. My wife drives a Model X and I am also a share holder.

So as a Tesla owner, (or anyone else that "really" knows) maybe you can give me honest real world answers. I know next to nothing about Tesla's so forgive me if I ask some stupid questions.

I understand some models have a fully charged range of 300+ miles. I've also read the quickest models can do 0 to 60 mph in 2.5 secs (very impressive) and have a top speed of 150+ mph (also pretty impressive).

So, with the best performance model they have, if you make half a dozen spirited 0-60 flat out runs and/or kick it up to the ~140 mph range for a few miles once or twice on a charge, how does that affect the ~300 mile distance between charges? True enough that gasoline powered cars will use more gas when driven harder, but I understand that. How does the same spirited driving translate with the best Tesla's range? (And yes, maybe a little crazy, but there are a lot of drivers out there that drive like this "sometimes" so this does happen more often than you might suspect)

Also, how long does it take to fully charge nearly drained batteries at a supercharger station? To be honest, I drive a lot and have never seen a supercharger station, although I understand there are a couple in the area (within 75 miles) according to the maps I've seen.