Thoughts on TESLA

[Zathras]

Then again I do not have to take time to plug in my car every day when I get home... not unplug my car when I am ready to go.... I do not drive much now so unless we are going somewhere that is a distance I can go 2 or 3 weeks per fill up... and that is less than 10 minutes... I would be that I spend less time 'filling up' my car than you do...

Plugging in, and unplugging takes about 10 seconds (each).
At 20 seconds a day, and I don't charge every day, I spend 10 minutes in about a month.
But it isn't just the time, it is what you are doing. Now, I may not be the best planner, but when I used to stop for gas, it occasionally made me late to an event, work, etc. I also always had to stop in the middle of a trip to work, and appointment, to get back home after a long day at work, etc.
None of these were more than an annoyance, but I prefer life without annoyances.
I also don't end up pumping gas while standing out in a blizzard. That isn't an issue for many, but is for me in the winters.

For me, it has simply made life more pleasant

 

[6miths]

Zathras, have you seen a significant range hit in cold weather? Figuring I would likely get a Model 3 but cold weather range is my largest concern.

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by aja8888 View Post
Sounds like the car is controlling YOUR schedule. Shouldn't it be the other way around?

"Schedules" and routes are always affected by your mode of transportation.
With most cars, you are limited to driving where there are roads.
With gas cars, your car "controls" how often you stop. ...

Woah. EVs and ICE/hybrids drive the same roads, so that's a wash.

Gas cars stop less frequently than EVs. Rationalization much?
I'm sure the Tesla is an impressive car (it ought to be, at that price). But let's not make claims that are just "out there".

-ERD50

 

[Texas Proud]

Zathras, have you seen a significant range hit in cold weather? Figuring I would likely get a Model 3 but cold weather range is my largest concern.

With me it is how much does it 'cost' to have the car air conditioned.... it is HOT and HUMID around here.... we run the AC almost all year and run it hard....


Now... one thing that might be cool (pun intended) is if you can tell your car to turn on your AC before you get to it so it can cool down a bit.... scalding hot seats are not good when you come out of wherever you are...

 

[Zathras]

Zathras, have you seen a significant range hit in cold weather? Figuring I would likely get a Model 3 but cold weather range is my largest concern.

Yes, cold definitely has an impact on range. Gas cars take about a 20% hit in range/mpg in cold. Depending upon how your car is stored and the type of driving, EVs tend to take a hit around 25%-30% in efficiency/range.

In a worse case scenario, driving in the absolute worst method (lots of short trips without plugging in and with a long enough time for the battery to get cold) you may loose 45%-50%.
In Toronto, if you can't plug in at home I wouldn't recommend an EV, but a PHEV could be a good option.

Woah. EVs and ICE/hybrids drive the same roads, so that's a wash.

Gas cars stop less frequently than EVs. Rationalization much?
I'm sure the Tesla is an impressive car (it ought to be, at that price). But let's not make claims that are just "out there".

-ERD50

My point wasn't that EVs don't have to follow roads. It was that all vehicles have limitations.
As an overall rule, I stop far less often in my EVs than I did in any of my gas cars. Depending upon the range of the EV and personal driving patterns that may not be the case for all people.

With me it is how much does it 'cost' to have the car air conditioned.... it is HOT and HUMID around here.... we run the AC almost all year and run it hard....


Now... one thing that might be cool (pun intended) is if you can tell your car to turn on your AC before you get to it so it can cool down a bit.... scalding hot seats are not good when you come out of wherever you are...

Heavy AC use will shorten the range, but not nearly as much as the heater in cold weather states.
A for telling the car to run the AC, many of the EVs are set up so you can run the AC on a schedule. So it could start cooling the car automatically.
All of them, to my knowledge, let you turn onthe AC/heater remotely via a smart phone.
My wife loves getting into a warm car in the winter

 

[Car-Guy]

This thread has absolutely convinced me that a EV is not for me and my lifestyle. I don't care if supercharges were as common as gas stations. Charging times would kill the deal for me. YMMV

 

[exnavynuke]

When I take long trips (>4 hours), I tend to stop long enough to get gas (~ 5 minutes) and go through the drive through (~5 minutes) before I'm back on the road. When my folks lived in Dallas I'd go there every year. It's about a 11.5 hour drive with 1-2 stops for gas/food. It's a long day, but I could leave ~ 6 in the morning and be there for dinner.

I looked into what it would take to make that same drive a few years ago and I'd have needed to detour to I-10 and add ~5 hours onto the trip in detours to catch superchargers, plus add ~4-5 hours onto the trip for charging time. Today, they have more superchargers. Assuming I never hit a supercharger that was "full" (and for most of the supercharger stations I think that would take 8 cars filling up), I'd still have 3-4 hours worth of charging to get there as opposed to 10-20 minutes for food/gas. That's a significant inconvenience in my opinion.

Try planning a trip from Memphis to Oklahoma city right now. Zero superchargers on the "fast route" down I-40. So you can take slow chargers and their charging time or you can add charging time plus an extra 200 miles onto the trip according to Tesla's current map of superchargers.

I can drive any route that comes up on my Google maps and am confident I can get fuel anywhere in this country with my ICE vehicle. Until the same can be said for driving an all-electric vehicle, I'll never own one as a primary vehicle. Until I can charge one from empty to full in a similar time-frame as I can fill up my gas-tank, I'll also be unlikely to own one as a primary vehicle.

 

[Zathras]

This thread has absolutely convinced me that a EV is not for me and my lifestyle. I don't care if supercharges were as common as gas stations. Charging times would kill the deal for me. YMMV

Good, far better to look into it and find out before you buy.
EVs aren't for everyone. If you travel a lot and prefer getting to your destination in as little time as possible, EVs aren't a good choice.
I am happy to take a little extra time on long trips for the added convenience around town.
Some people aren't, and that is ok

 

[Chuckanut]

I knew of a guy who bought a Tesla a few years ago because he had never traveled much in the USA and wanted to 'see the country'. He figured he could drive it all over the US and never pay a penny for fuel. He followed the SuperCharger Route and did exactly that. He had a great time an visited a lot of places. He was not the type who would have enjoyed driving 120 miles round trip on some little used back road to visit Little Pebbles State Park, so it worked for him.

Alas, as much as I would love to have a Tesla, there are other things I would rather have more. To each his own. We are all different. OTOH, if I won a 5+ million dollar lottery I would probably spring for the Tesla within a week of getting the check.

 

[imoldernu]

Without comment... see headline

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4062953-big-tesla-swindle

 

[ls99]

Without comment... see headline

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4062953-big-tesla-swindle

Would have liked to read the full article, but after the first page they want me to register. Not that interested. Though I am inclined to agree with the much hype by Tesla theory.

 

[midwestguy]

After buying a model S a year ago, I purchased the stock at 170. The car is nothing short as amazing. The stock has rose to the point where I made enough money to pay for the car. I ordered a second one (model 3 ) for my daughter.

The stock is ridiculously high and the company has never made money, however I believe in the long term prospect of the company. Almost everyone who owns a tesla, believes that these electric cars are the future

Also Elon will always bring new hype for the company with his exhaustive new goals which are typically behind schedule.

Having said this, I will sell some of my stock, because I believe the stock will have a major correction after the model 3 comes out (it will be late and plagued with problems but great in the end ).

My plan is to buy more after this correction

 

[Animorph]

Supercharging time is a small impact for me. It is nice to get out and walk around or eat for a while periodically. Slow down, don't drive 12 hours+ non-stop, and feel better when you get there. That's my speed now. My Model X has a 300 mile range. I don't have to fill up much more frequently than a gas car.

But the real clincher for me is Autopilot, which is fancy cruise control that will slow down for the car in front of you, and autosteer which steers for you. Autosteer needs a few updates before I'll rely on it much, it still acts a little drunk. Though I can use it. The traffic-aware cruise control makes driving very easy. And eventually I'll at least have some features of full self driving, if not a fully autonomous car. I'd never have taken a long road trip without these driving aids.

Locally, home charging and no engine problems with short trips to gum up the engine or long periods of disuse.

Long distance, it does much of the driving for you.

And for both, the most responsive accelerator pedal you can buy. Not so much 0-60, though that too, but no delay for the engine to start turning faster, the transmission to select a lower gear, and the turbo to spin up. It's a great performance car. And the best gadget I have! With future software downloaded updates still to come!

Current entry level is about $35k without Autopilot. Chevy Bolt now or Tesla Model 3 later.

The current Tesla's are obviously not for everyone. But I think electric cars are just about ready to take over from gas.

 

[NW-Bound]

... Also, how long does it take to fully charge nearly drained batteries at a supercharger station?

... It takes 20-30 minutes to get enough range to reach the next supercharger (150-170 miles). The charge slows down as you charge, so a full charge (300 miles) takes about an hour and 10 minutes.

Thanks, your answers pretty much answered my questions and is about what I expected, except that it took so long for a full charge at a supercharging station...

A quick look on the Web shows that a Tesla battery capacity ranges from 75 kWh to 100 kWh depending on the option. That's the daily energy usage at my home in the Southwest in the summer, where a 5-ton AC runs seemingly non-stop.

To stuff the energy usage of my home in 24 hours into a battery in less than 1/20th the time requires 20 times the power. One Tesla in fast-charging mode sucks up as much power as 20 homes in the SW in midday. That's impressive, even though a charge time of more than 1 hour does feel very long.

All this underlines the fact that cars are real energy hogs, whether one runs on gasoline or electricity.

As for me, I do not mind owning a short-range EV like the LEAF to run errands. I do not do long-range roadtrips anymore, except by RV. And it may be a very long time until a battery large enough to propel an RV drops in price to make it economically feasible. Such a battery would be a few hundred thousand dollars now. And how long would it last?

 

[Texas Proud]

After buying a model S a year ago, I purchased the stock at 170. The car is nothing short as amazing. The stock has rose to the point where I made enough money to pay for the car. I ordered a second one (model 3 ) for my daughter.

The stock is ridiculously high and the company has never made money, however I believe in the long term prospect of the company. Almost everyone who owns a tesla, believes that these electric cars are the future

Also Elon will always bring new hype for the company with his exhaustive new goals which are typically behind schedule.

Having said this, I will sell some of my stock, because I believe the stock will have a major correction after the model 3 comes out (it will be late and plagued with problems but great in the end ).

My plan is to buy more after this correction

Man... how many shares did you buy And what % of your portfolio....

I would never put much money in a flyer like this... this will either be a successful company (still not worth what it is selling for today) or go down in flames....

I think they are trying to get into too many things right now.... they have not proven a single one yet.... electrics might be the wave of the future... but I do not think Tesla will be the #1 company in this field.... if for some reason they are able to make electric much cheaper and the masses want them I am sure that Ford, GM, Toyota, Honda etc. etc. will be putting their massive balance sheets behind producing these kind of cars and will still be selling many times more than Tesla....

 

[Totoro]

When my folks lived in Dallas I'd go there every year. It's about a 11.5 hour drive with 1-2 stops for gas/food. It's a long day, but I could leave ~ 6 in the morning and be there for dinner.

For this use case, long distance in one go, electric will not be viable for a very long while, maybe never. A self flying plane might even be cheaper than electric by then. Or multi-hop selfdriving (aka: the bus).

Most driving in the world isn't of this type though, and you could also rent an ICE vehicle if you only do it a few times a year. Especially in Asia and Europe. The USA is not the best place for electric to thrive with its city sprawl, spread out families and low fuel taxes. Think Berlin, Beijing, Paris, not Los Angeles or Dallas.

My own maximum driving distance is about 200 miles, which I do quite frequently (once a month). As soon as I can hit that number with decent economics in an electric car, I'll switch and never look back, probably about five to ten years down the line.

I will be surprised if that car will be a Tesla though. They are the pioneers but I doubt they will be the winners. What does winning even look like? I actually fully expect that the brand will be sold off to one of the car majors somewhere down the road, with Tesla focusing on the energy systems.

 

[Chuckanut]

I will be surprised if that car will be a Tesla though. They are the pioneers but I doubt they will be the winners.

Isn't there a saying about how the pioneers take the arrows and the settlers take the land. Which leaves the interesting question of who will play the part of the natives and just get taken.

 

[Chuckanut]

Supercharging time is a small impact for me. It is nice to get out and walk around or eat for a while periodically. Slow down, don't drive 12 hours+ non-stop, and feel better when you get there. That's my speed now. My Model X has a 300 mile range. I don't have to fill up much more frequently than a gas car.

Thanks for reminding us that a car is a life style decision. To each his own.

 

[OldShooter]

... Which leaves the interesting question of who will play the part of the natives and just get taken.

Easy. The people who bought the stock.

 

[Chuckanut]

Easy. The people who bought the stock.

Perhaps. But, I was thinking more in the line of the switch from film photography to digital photography. Lots of natives got taken there including the "Great Yellow Father".

 

[OldShooter]

Perhaps. But, I was thinking more in the line of the switch from film photography to digital photography. Lots of natives got taken there including the "Great Yellow Father".

Interesting question. IMO the digital photography situation is a little different. Kodak's market disappeared. The market for cars will not disappear and, in fact, changing the locomotion gadget will leave large parts of the car and its supporting infrastructure unchanged. The need for service will change a bit but the need for a dealer network may not.

I think the self-driving revolution will have bigger impact. For example, OTR trucks will be operating nearly 24x7 because the need for driver rest time is moot. So, for constant freight volume, the market for OTR tractors and trailers is cut almost in half. In cars, to the extent that self-driving leads to shared car schemes, the market for cars will also be significantly cut, particularly at the high end.

But it is true that radical technological change is usually bad for incumbents. Have you used a Friden calculator lately? So, I guess we'll have to wait and see how this turns out.

 

[ls99]

SR 101, and square roots too!

 

[Totoro]

But it is true that radical technological change is usually bad for incumbents.

It's usually bad for investors, challengers and innovators too.

Facebook wasn't the first social network - there were literally hundreds of others. Myspace was the most famous pioneer there who got shot. Google wasn't the first dominant search engine. Altavista was. Netscape got eaten by Microsoft giving away internet explorer.

Aviation: in the first hundred years hardly any airline made a profit for investors. Railroads sort of the same. Commodore (of C-64 fame) and many others, all gone in the dust. We all know the Apple resurrection story. The thing to remember is to be resurrected you have to be (as good as) dead.

I'd argue that the norm as innovator or inventor is failure, even moreso than for the incumbents since they have little cushion. An incumbent can reinvent and pivot itself with the cash coming out of the legacy business. Most new kids don't have that luxury.

 

[Dash man]

Tesla is a great car, but not ready for prime time and not profitable. Rule # 1 for me to buy a stock is for it to be profitable. Great technology may be adapted for use by others with ability to make money, but Tesla is too risky and will fall hard when people realize the stock price momentum doesn't pay employees forever, and investors want profits.

 

[mpeirce]

It's usually bad for investors, challengers and innovators too.

Google wasn't the first dominant search engine. Altavista was.

AltaVista is actually kinda of relevant here. It was created by folks at DEC. In its day, AltaVista was great. Way better than the alternatives.

DEC revolutionized computers with their minicomputers, but squandered that in many ways.

The challenge for the automakers is to not go the way of DEC.