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01-18-2019, 11:54 PM
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#2061
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Northern Illinois
Posts: 16,543
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Thoughts on TESLA
Quote:
Originally Posted by eroscott
Below quote: I didn't realize they grew by +30% last year so down -7% they still grew by a large percent.
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Quote:
And you get to weed out the people that turned out to not be your high performers
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+1. Maybe this was all done by design. Overhire, then weed out the underperformers. We had a manage consultant tell us to do that in order to build the most qualified workforce. He said that a company should lay off 10% of its workforce every year.
ETA: just got an email from Tesla wanting people to experience driving a Tesla on snow in Finland.
www.tesla.com/campaign/winter-experience/partner
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01-19-2019, 06:10 AM
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#2062
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ronstar
+1. Maybe this was all done by design. Overhire, then weed out the underperformers. We had a manage consultant tell us to do that in order to build the most qualified workforce. He said that a company should lay off 10% of its workforce every year.
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Jack Welch was well known for that at GE as you probably know.
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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01-19-2019, 06:19 AM
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#2063
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 2,691
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eroscott
Below quote: I didn't realize they grew by +30% last year so down -7% they still grew by a large percent.
And you get to weed out the people that turned out to not be your high performers.
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The 13% drop in price (on a day when market was up) certainly shows the market considers this to be less than positive news.
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01-19-2019, 06:20 AM
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#2064
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 2,691
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01-19-2019, 07:40 AM
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#2065
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Out of curiosity, I surfed the Web to read comments from Tesla workers, and people said that they were worked hard, and Musk acted aristocratically and fired people for petty things. Of course, these are just anecdotes, but seeing reports of Tesla cars not just with shoddy paint jobs, but obvious scratches and wheel rim rashes, I wonder if these were not incidences of sabotage.
About my earlier comment wondering if Tesla is reducing production, I took that back. No, even if US sales were slowing down, they would divert that to export.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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01-19-2019, 07:56 AM
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#2066
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Northern Illinois
Posts: 16,543
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Thoughts on TESLA
Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack
Jack Welch was well known for that at GE as you probably know.
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Yes I remember that. Works good on paper - but the workforce that you phased out could have been more productive than the one you hired in.
I’m kind of surprised that Tesla’s layoff is only 7%. I would think that they overhired by more than that temporarily to meet peak tax credit era demand and build inventory.
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01-19-2019, 08:18 AM
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#2067
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,821
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eroscott
Below quote: I didn't realize they grew by +30% last year so down -7% they still grew by a large percent.
And you get to weed out the people that turned out to not be your high performers. ...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack
Jack Welch was well known for that at GE as you probably know.
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Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobandsherry
The 13% drop in price (on a day when market was up) certainly shows the market considers this to be less than positive news.
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To the fans, there appears to be no downside to anything, it's always rainbows, puppies and unicorns! To infinity and beyond!
"war is peace
freedom is slavery
ignorance is strength"
"Down is up"?
Quote:
Originally Posted by eroscott
I was pointing out why they need to get to the SR (Short Range) 200+ mile $35K car ...
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And when will that be, at decent margins? That's a big question, a big challenge for Tesla.
Quote:
Originally Posted by eroscott
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As bobandsherry said, if it was 'very good' the stock would not have dropped. When I lose money, it's cold comfort to find someone telling me it's all 'very good'.
I'm wondering if eroscott actually listened to this video. Here's some of that video (emph mine):
~1:08 - "You never want to see a growth company cutting staff like this."
Yep, he said "never".
~1:48 - "Clearly in my mind, they have an issue with demand." He goes on to point out that 90% of the reservations seem to be holding out for the $35,000 model. And that their 4% Q3 profit came with higher margin cars, that will change as they roll out cheaper models.
~3:14 - "I think there is a lot of risk to the name.". Goes on to mention high valuation, high level of debt, and competition entering 2019/2020.
~6:20 - "Realistically, for them to see the growth that is expected by the street, they do need to get the price down to $35,000 and I see that as an extraordinarily difficult thing for them to accomplish. I actually don't think they will accomplish it".
Wait - they need to do it, but he does not think they will accomplish it? That does not sound 'very good' to me!
There were some other positive views, and some balance, but of course, eroscott gives the impression it's all 'very good', no negatives?
-ERD50
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01-19-2019, 08:19 AM
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#2068
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Tacoma
Posts: 520
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Europe
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01-19-2019, 08:25 AM
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#2069
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,821
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
....
About my earlier comment wondering if Tesla is reducing production, I took that back. No, even if US sales were slowing down, they would divert that to export.
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But Musk planned on 10,000 Model 3's per week by now. They were around 5,000/week, with lots of push. What can they do in the near term after a 7% cut?
Sure, exports mean more sales, but if they are only making ~ 5,000, that means fewer sales to the US. I would think they would want to go for all they can while they still have the half tax credit in the first half of 2019, and the quarter tax credit in the 2nd half.
-ERD50
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01-19-2019, 08:40 AM
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#2070
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50
~1:48 - "Clearly in my mind, they have an issue with demand." He goes on to point out that 90% of the reservations seem to be holding out for the $35,000 model. And that their 4% Q3 profit came with higher margin cars, that will change as they roll out cheaper models.
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Regarding Q3 2018 "blow out" earnings of $311M, it was later revealed that $190M of that came from emissions credit sold to other car makers that did not meet the emission legal requirements. This pure profit item is erratic and can be lumpy.
Q4 earnings will be released soon on Feb 7. It will be interesting to see, but Musk already prepared the market to not see a repeat of Q3.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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01-19-2019, 09:05 AM
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#2071
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Tacoma
Posts: 520
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50
But Musk planned on 10,000 Model 3's per week by now. They were around 5,000/week, with lots of push. What can they do in the near term after a 7% cut?
Sure, exports mean more sales, but if they are only making ~ 5,000, that means fewer sales to the US. I would think they would want to go for all they can while they still have the half tax credit in the first half of 2019, and the quarter tax credit in the 2nd half.-ERD50
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Wants vs reality. Getting to 5,000 per week in a year is a major accomplishment, but it took a lot of learning and improving to get there. Now they largely know what works and they can reproduce it in China to build the Model Y next year. In the meantime, charging networks need to grow, service becomes a larger issue, and battery production needs to grow. All of it takes time and money. Remember, it has only been a little over a year for the Model 3.
As an investor, I look at the trajectory of a business based on actual performance and demand, not the platitudes promised by the leadership or PR department. With Tesla, there is no significant short-term threat to continued growth. That could change, but all of the angst over Musk overpromising misses the point. Tesla has kick-started a dormant electric vehicle industry and is poised to be the next Apple, Amazon, or Microsoft for investors.
The stock market is very skittish, right now. Headlines drive huge swings, but if the underlying business is promising, the stocks should rebound. Tesla has a very promising business.
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01-19-2019, 09:13 AM
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#2072
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 17,205
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oneill225
Just under $30,000 is right where the Camry, Accord, Legacy, etc. buyers are at. Add the same types of options as the Model 3 and they will bump up into the low $30k range. If Tesla can get the Model 3 down to $35k without incentives, then they are going to be competitive with those cars (and similar ones)
I think the Tesla has a competitive advantage over these sedans with gas savings, performance, and technology. What is it worth to cut your gas bill in half or more? I think a $5,000 difference is not a show-stopper for those willing to spend $30k on a Camry. Of course, there will always be a market for the least expensive cars, but the majority of sedan buyers are in that 30-40k range (whether we call it luxury or not).
Not sure what you mean by no new big car manufacturers entering the US since 1969. The Japanese car makers nearly put Detroit out of business in the 80s. A superior product can sell. That is why Tesla is the 4th or 5th best selling sedan after being on the market just over 1 year.
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One of the other things you have to consider is styling and comfort along with driving dynamics.... I do not think the 3 looks good at all... there has been many posts about the interior being sub par.... not sure about handling, but the 3 does beat the others on acceleration....
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01-19-2019, 09:38 AM
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#2073
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 17,173
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I can't help but think that their automated assembly line (the one that proved humans were under-rated) has had some fixes done to it. My guess is the $35,000 Model 3 price always depended on machines doing most of the work while the under-rated humans pushed a button and dozed (Meet George Jetson!). I can't help but think they will get more out of those machines as time goes by.
__________________
Comparison is the thief of joy
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
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01-19-2019, 10:02 AM
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#2074
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 17,205
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oneill225
If Musk had claimed they would be making 4,500 per week currently, would you be praising him? Would you have predicted it a year ago?
Why do you care if he is aggressive in his estimates? Take a step back and try to recognize that what Tesla is doing to the auto industry is pretty amazing.
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It is not me... but if any other CEO in almost any industry was as far off in their estimates the market would hold them accountable... heck, they might even be driven out of their job... why should Musk get a pass?
BTW, I think that the auto industry would be going in this direction anyhow without Musk... I think he has just made it happen sooner than if he were not here...
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01-19-2019, 10:16 AM
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#2075
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,223
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Tesla Layoffs
Speculating, many of the 7 % are temps , contractors , and, excess staff tripping over each other in the mad push to prove the 5K production and delivery rate.
Vehicles produced per employee will improve over time and the 35K model 3 could happen, but only with large sub assemblies produced in China , shipped to Freemont for final assembly.
Wall Street needs to be patient and the company needs to stop over promising for the company to succeed long term.
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01-19-2019, 10:21 AM
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#2076
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 528
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobandsherry
The 13% drop in price (on a day when market was up) certainly shows the market considers this to be less than positive news.
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Thanks for your financial "insight". The chart shows a variety of these drops and gains tho. One of the most shorted stocks there is. Lot of sudden volatility both down and up. Look it up youself on previous layoffs (Fall 2018) or other big events. Also look up the rises on what that news is about.
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01-19-2019, 10:32 AM
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#2077
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,821
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oneill225
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50
But Musk planned on 10,000 Model 3's per week by now. They were around 5,000/week, with lots of push. What can they do in the near term after a 7% cut?
Sure, exports mean more sales, but if they are only making ~ 5,000, that means fewer sales to the US. I would think they would want to go for all they can while they still have the half tax credit in the first half of 2019, and the quarter tax credit in the 2nd half.-ERD50
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.... As an investor, I look at the trajectory of a business based on actual performance and demand, not the platitudes promised by the leadership or PR department..
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But those promises are what at least some investors and debt suppliers are taking into consideration. Do you think the market just ignores the comments of the CEO? I guess we shouldn't believe anything Musk says about Tesla? He really doesn't plan to succeed? It's all a game? This is just silly. It does matter.
If I were an investor, I'd sure want to make some estimates about those demand numbers. Cutting staff while adding export sales (they had to wait for approvals in those countries)? As an investor, I'd be concerned.
Do you have any answers for that? Or do you just go on faith?
Did Tesla size themselves for a 10,000/week M3 run rate? If so, 5,000 is a big problem.
Quote:
Originally Posted by oneill225
....With Tesla, there is no significant short-term threat to continued growth. ....
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None? I think you have blinders on. Companies always face threats. I'm not saying they won't grow short term, they should. But it is far from a slam-dunk.
Quote:
Originally Posted by oneill225
... but all of the angst over Musk overpromising misses the point. Tesla has kick-started a dormant electric vehicle industry and is poised to be the next Apple, Amazon, or Microsoft for investors. ...
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There is a lot of 'stuff' between "poised" and "delivering".
Quote:
Originally Posted by oneill225
... The stock market is very skittish, right now. Headlines drive huge swings, but if the underlying business is promising, the stocks should rebound. Tesla has a very promising business.
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I just ran a 3 month chart of S&P, GM, F, and TSLA. I didn't see anything 'skittish'.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckanut
I can't help but think that their automated assembly line (the one that proved humans were under-rated) has had some fixes done to it. My guess is the $35,000 Model 3 price always depended on machines doing most of the work while the under-rated humans pushed a button and dozed (Meet George Jetson!). I can't help but think they will get more out of those machines as time goes by.
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OK, see if you can run some numbers. How much labor goes into an M3? How much will be displaced by improved automation? I would certainly hope that most of their automation worked as expected, and that there were only a few problem areas. So the incremental difference should be pretty small, I would think. The only other explanation is that their manufacturing engineers are incompetent. I doubt that's the case. But as I mentioned way back, I was rather shocked at what Musk described as some of their automation issues. I've seen those kind of issues dealt with, and they sounded almost trivial (problems with a robot picking up a sound absorbing mat - just add 'grab' features to the mat. It's not rocket science).
Certainly they will get better as time goes on. But they are facing the double-whammy of shrinking tax credits, and moving down the product line to lower margin product.
From mid-range to standard, I think we are talking a price delta of ~ $9,000 for a battery delta of 12kWh (62-50?). Not sure what the estimates are for $/kWh, but even if it is still $300/kWh, that's a $3,600 reduction, so that's $5,400 in lost revenue (or are there other things between standard and mid-range I missed?). That's a lot to make up.
-ERD50
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01-19-2019, 10:37 AM
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#2078
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 2,691
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Thanks, but I'm not interested in going back in time. And quite frankly, not sure what point you are trying to make. Shows to me just how speculative this stock is (high beta) and that the slightest breeze gets the rats jumping from the ship. And just to be clear, I'm not negative Tesla, but negative at the trading price of Tesla. It's too high for what the company currently produces and they have significant head winds (IMHO) in the near future with competition that will put downward pressure on their ability to generate profits in order to sustain such a high market value. But I've been wrong before, so may be wrong again.
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01-19-2019, 10:46 AM
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#2079
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,821
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobandsherry
Thanks, but I'm not interested in going back in time. And quite frankly, not sure what point you are trying to make. Shows to me just how speculative this stock is (high beta) and that the slightest breeze gets the rats jumping from the ship. And just to be clear, I'm not negative Tesla, but negative at the trading price of Tesla. It's too high for what the company currently produces and they have significant head winds (IMHO) in the near future with competition that will put downward pressure on their ability to generate profits in order to sustain such a high market value. But I've been wrong before, so may be wrong again.
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And I would think the shorts should help to stabilize the stock.
What does a short think when the stock tanks? Hmmm, is this my opportunity to cover? And to cover, you need to buy to offset the short, which adds demand to the stock on any drop. Which would be a stabilizing influence.
Any shorts have already done their 'damage', it's baked in. Going forward, the more shorts in the rear-view mirror the better. Those are all buyers at some point.
Taking a short position on anything is nerve racking. Unlike a long position, you can lose more than you put in. It's tempting to close out the short when you have an opportunity, as that opportunity may be the last. You never know.
But to the fans - shorts be evil people who hate Tesla. Blame them for the drop, not Musk.
-ERD50
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01-19-2019, 11:08 AM
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#2080
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 2,691
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50
And I would think the shorts should help to stabilize the stock.
What does a short think when the stock tanks? Hmmm, is this my opportunity to cover? And to cover, you need to buy to offset the short, which adds demand to the stock on any drop. Which would be a stabilizing influence.
Any shorts have already done their 'damage', it's baked in. Going forward, the more shorts in the rear-view mirror the better. Those are all buyers at some point.
Taking a short position on anything is nerve racking. Unlike a long position, you can lose more than you put in. It's tempting to close out the short when you have an opportunity, as that opportunity may be the last. You never know.
But to the fans - shorts be evil people who hate Tesla. Blame them for the drop, not Musk.
-ERD50
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Indeed, shorts don't push the price lower. With Tesla it's so speculative that it creates such a ripe environment for shorts.
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