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Thur Fed meeting
Old 09-13-2015, 07:40 PM   #1
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Thur Fed meeting

Whats your prediction for no raise or a fed raise this week and market reaction? I think we get a 1/4 point raise and a big relief rally. What do you think?


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Old 09-13-2015, 07:43 PM   #2
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I think we get a 1/4 point raise and a big drop followed by a comeback back to where we are now.
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Old 09-13-2015, 07:56 PM   #3
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I can't control it and I'm not selling anytime soon so que sera sera.

No change or +25 bps would not be a surprise.
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Old 09-13-2015, 08:13 PM   #4
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They might go 1/8 point, but are fools if they do anything but stay put. If anything, we are in a deflationary environment, not inflationary.

If they raise rates, it will further kill jobs and exports. Outsourcing will be even cheaper. We have a surplus of capacity in this economy, companies are not producing as much as they could. Prices are artificially higher than they should be. Top line revenue growth for many companies is flat.

The great recession started when the Fed raised rates, and caused the market to be stagnant for 15 years.
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Old 09-14-2015, 08:34 AM   #5
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hopefully the war on savers might be getting a little reprieve, 1/4 point will hardly make a difference, much less kill the economy. it would be nice to see interest rates on cd's at a level that at least keeps up with inflation.
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Old 09-14-2015, 08:47 AM   #6
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1/4 point, for now
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Old 09-14-2015, 09:41 AM   #7
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I agree with the 1/4 point school of thought. I can't make any predictions on the market because everytime I think I understand and try to predict - it does the opposite. So... in the immortal words of W2R..... "Wheeeee"
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Old 09-14-2015, 09:57 AM   #8
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They might go 1/8 point, but are fools if they do anything but stay put. If anything, we are in a deflationary environment, not inflationary.

If they raise rates, it will further kill jobs and exports. Outsourcing will be even cheaper. We have a surplus of capacity in this economy, companies are not producing as much as they could. Prices are artificially higher than they should be. Top line revenue growth for many companies is flat.

The great recession started when the Fed raised rates, and caused the market to be stagnant for 15 years.
The entire world has surplus manufacturing capacity, to a great extent (IMO) from central banks flooding cheap money. If this welfare is to be fair, everyone who files a tax return should be able to borrow cheap money from the fed, not just banks. How about that for a direct stimulus ?.

US and other businesses who go into a tizzy over rate increases are so weak they should be allowed to fail.

Sorry everyone, I'm having a bad day. Rant over (for now).
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Old 09-14-2015, 11:05 AM   #9
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My guess, they do nothing and say nothing that is intelligible.
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Old 09-14-2015, 12:39 PM   #10
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My guess, they do nothing and say nothing that is intelligible.
"If I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said."

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Old 09-14-2015, 12:42 PM   #11
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....US and other businesses who go into a tizzy over rate increases are so weak they should be allowed to fail.
...
+1 if 25 bps makes a big difference then the business is on thin ice to begin with.... Darwin needs to win every now and then.
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Old 09-14-2015, 12:52 PM   #12
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+1 if 25 bps makes a big difference then the business is on thin ice to begin with.... Darwin needs to win every now and then.
+2
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Old 09-14-2015, 01:49 PM   #13
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I agree that we should (hopefully) get a 25 bps jump with justification to "get off zero" with a strong statement that this will be last increase until 1) we see impact on economic activity (should be none) of this increase and 2) that inflation has increased close to 2%.

I think doing nothing would show the current Fed Chairman as incompetent and too scared to act.

As for the market, I think we are rangebound between 1875 and 2000 until mid-October when earnings start coming in. Positive earnings and we make it to 2200 this year; bad fundamentals and we are down to 1600 or less.

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Old 09-14-2015, 01:55 PM   #14
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They will do nothing right now. When they eventually do a 1/4 point raise, the markets will be down 3-4% that day.
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Old 09-14-2015, 02:18 PM   #15
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25 basis points. Lets get it over with.
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Old 09-14-2015, 07:27 PM   #16
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My guess, they do nothing and say nothing that is intelligible.
That is my guess.
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Old 09-14-2015, 07:50 PM   #17
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We have an economy that is predicated on cheap money at the expense of savers. Those who borrow the cheap money have more political power than millions of savers.

So, I do not expect much change. Maybe +1/8 percent.

Note: I have been so wrong for so long on interest rate predictions you would be wise to view this as a contrarian opportunity.
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Old 09-14-2015, 10:20 PM   #18
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I'd like to see a small token hike just to get the markets past this infernal "wait". That will get the Fed off zero. They then have a tiny wiggle room to "ease" again in the face of an economic slowdown - and given the length of the current expansion a slowdown should be here sooner rather than later.

Gundlach has a recent slide show showing that a Fed rate hike is not warranted by the current state of the U.S. Economy Jeff Gundlach Sept.8 Webcast - Business Insider
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Old 09-14-2015, 10:23 PM   #19
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hopefully the war on savers might be getting a little reprieve, 1/4 point will hardly make a difference, much less kill the economy. it would be nice to see interest rates on cd's at a level that at least keeps up with inflation.
Until the U.S. And global economies take off, savers will not be rewarded. That is just the way it is - the Fed doesn't control that. If deflation is threatening, you aren't going to get paid a lot to hold your cash.
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Old 09-15-2015, 06:43 AM   #20
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Prediction: no change.

I have a hard time reconciling the arguments to "get it over with" or "the markets need it" with the Feds' mission of inflation-fighting and low unemployment. I think the FMC will, too.
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