Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Time to Invest in Commodities, Foreign Funds?
Old 08-11-2015, 12:23 PM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 82
Time to Invest in Commodities, Foreign Funds?

This may not be in the mainstream of the forum, but I was curious whether anyone was taking advantage of the rather high U.S. dollar to invest in commodities, foreign funds, or anything else that appears likely to rise if the U.S. dollar value declines going forward.

I confess I'm tempted to move some money into Canadian or other funds. However, the efficient market theory holds me back.

The usual logic of not giving into trends is that a market consensus brought us to this point, and it cannot be obvious where the currency exchange, or stock market is headed next.

However, I see the U.S. dollar at high levels and conclude that some entity in the U.S. must want the value to fall for export, among other, purposes.

Thoughts?
__________________

__________________
lawman3966 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 08-11-2015, 12:49 PM   #2
Moderator Emeritus
aja8888's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: The Woodlands, TX
Posts: 7,148
What commodities are you referring to? And what investment vehicles?

I worked in Big Oil for decades and think we are going to have a crude oil supply problem worldwide, worse than now. There will be a price bottom, and supply/demand will settle it, but how to play it now?

There may be less risk in other sectors at the moment like health care? financials? or just the SPY.
__________________

__________________
......."Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face." -- philosopher Mike Tyson.
aja8888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2015, 12:50 PM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 1,654
MPT would have us diversified across both domestic and international stocks and bonds. Are you asking about over weighting the international portion? Some would use commodities to add to diversification in small amounts due to its typical correlation characteristics. Are you asking about increasing this portion?

Honestly I don't know what to do beyond MPT. I was not expecting China's currency move last night. I was thinking that there was some re-positioning that would help, but I need to digest this new event. I'm not sure commodities are at the end of their fall. It may be that world growth could be slowing again.

flip a coin?
__________________
bingybear is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2015, 02:00 PM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 2,357
I've rebalanced this year to boost non-US holdings.
__________________
GrayHare is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2015, 02:05 PM   #5
Full time employment: Posting here.
ESRwannabe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 629
I recently bought some shares of EMHY (ishares emerging markets high yield bond etf) and IFAS (ishares asia developed reits etf).
__________________
ESRwannabe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2015, 04:17 PM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 3,862
I've certainly been rebalancing in the direction of the OP.

Even if markets were efficient, there are many different investor priorities out there. The market will just average them all together. So the market is likely to look at least a little inefficient the way you see it.
__________________
Animorph is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2015, 04:28 PM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Big_Hitter's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: In the fairway
Posts: 4,094
I'm thinking about moving some cash to tgldx
__________________
Swing hard, look up
Big_Hitter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2015, 05:43 PM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
mickeyd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: South Texas~29N/98W
Posts: 5,880
I'm thinking about staying the course.
__________________
Part-Owner of Texas

Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read. Groucho Marx

In dire need of: faster horses, younger woman, older whiskey, more money.
mickeyd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2015, 07:50 PM   #9
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 405
As I put money to work each month, I adjust the purchase mix based on variations in AA...so I'm automatically increases my foreign purchases.

I don't have commodities in my AA...so despite my temptation to explore and play in that arena, I'm currently not doing so. I also have this belief that oil is in the midst of a long term, revolutionary change...so I have no rightful clue where the bottom is...
__________________
Luck is when Preparation meets Opportunity.
Closet_Gamer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-12-2015, 12:47 PM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Koolau's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 3,240
I'm sure someone will "guess" correctly and make money on the right moves. However, I tend to think "if it were that easy, everyone would be doing it." But, as always, YMMV.
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -

Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
Koolau is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-12-2015, 01:04 PM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Dash man's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Limerick
Posts: 1,668
I try not to catch falling knives...you can get hurt pretty bad.
__________________
Dash man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-12-2015, 03:33 PM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 5,676
If one asks these questions I would expect a net answer to be equivalent to the current market consensus. Thus one is left sorting for their favorite answer.

I do find that small cap international is a better way to go then large cap international. Less correlated with US. I use VINEX.
__________________
Lsbcal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-12-2015, 04:45 PM   #13
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: MSP
Posts: 270
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big_Hitter View Post
I'm thinking about moving some cash to tgldx

Too late for me. I just moved mine to dwomg...


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
__________________

__________________
UpAnchor is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Where to park/invest funds needed at certain time intervals during retirement? Bailing-Bob FIRE and Money 11 12-17-2006 10:58 PM
VG - Commodities Fund? veritasophia FIRE and Money 8 04-30-2006 08:43 AM
How to invest in commodities? Spanky FIRE and Money 16 03-06-2005 10:13 AM
Investments in Commodities Dawg52 FIRE and Money 3 02-09-2005 09:27 AM
Any commodities investors? GTM FIRE and Money 15 01-10-2005 07:33 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:53 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.