Time to Invest in Commodities, Foreign Funds?

[lawman3966]

This may not be in the mainstream of the forum, but I was curious whether anyone was taking advantage of the rather high U.S. dollar to invest in commodities, foreign funds, or anything else that appears likely to rise if the U.S. dollar value declines going forward.

I confess I'm tempted to move some money into Canadian or other funds. However, the efficient market theory holds me back.

The usual logic of not giving into trends is that a market consensus brought us to this point, and it cannot be obvious where the currency exchange, or stock market is headed next.

However, I see the U.S. dollar at high levels and conclude that some entity in the U.S. must want the value to fall for export, among other, purposes.

Thoughts?

[aja8888]

What commodities are you referring to? And what investment vehicles?

I worked in Big Oil for decades and think we are going to have a crude oil supply problem worldwide, worse than now. There will be a price bottom, and supply/demand will settle it, but how to play it now?

There may be less risk in other sectors at the moment like health care? financials? or just the SPY.

[bingybear]

MPT would have us diversified across both domestic and international stocks and bonds. Are you asking about over weighting the international portion? Some would use commodities to add to diversification in small amounts due to its typical correlation characteristics. Are you asking about increasing this portion?

Honestly I don't know what to do beyond MPT. I was not expecting China's currency move last night. I was thinking that there was some re-positioning that would help, but I need to digest this new event. I'm not sure commodities are at the end of their fall. It may be that world growth could be slowing again.

flip a coin?

[GrayHare]

I've rebalanced this year to boost non-US holdings.

[ESRwannabe]

I recently bought some shares of EMHY (ishares emerging markets high yield bond etf) and IFAS (ishares asia developed reits etf).

[Animorph]

I've certainly been rebalancing in the direction of the OP.

Even if markets were efficient, there are many different investor priorities out there. The market will just average them all together. So the market is likely to look at least a little inefficient the way you see it.

[Big_Hitter]

I'm thinking about moving some cash to tgldx

[mickeyd]

I'm thinking about staying the course.

[Closet_Gamer]

As I put money to work each month, I adjust the purchase mix based on variations in AA...so I'm automatically increases my foreign purchases.

I don't have commodities in my AA...so despite my temptation to explore and play in that arena, I'm currently not doing so. I also have this belief that oil is in the midst of a long term, revolutionary change...so I have no rightful clue where the bottom is...

[Koolau]

I'm sure someone will "guess" correctly and make money on the right moves. However, I tend to think "if it were that easy, everyone would be doing it." But, as always, YMMV.

[Dash man]

I try not to catch falling knives...you can get hurt pretty bad.

[Lsbcal]

If one asks these questions I would expect a net answer to be equivalent to the current market consensus. Thus one is left sorting for their favorite answer.

I do find that small cap international is a better way to go then large cap international. Less correlated with US. I use VINEX.

[UpAnchor]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big_Hitter I'm thinking about moving some cash to tgldx

Too late for me. I just moved mine to dwomg...


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum