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Timing the market
Old 09-28-2012, 07:59 AM   #1
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Timing the market

Historicaly during a presidential election when is the best time to get out?
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Old 09-28-2012, 08:00 AM   #2
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Historicaly during a presidential election when is the best time to get out?
Prior to winning the nomination.
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Old 09-28-2012, 08:02 AM   #3
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Prior to winning the nomination.
But that only applies to the losers.
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Old 09-28-2012, 09:01 AM   #4
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Timing the Market, Hmmm, I think I've tried that once before.
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Old 09-28-2012, 09:15 AM   #5
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But that only applies to the losers.
Don't be so sure...
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Old 09-28-2012, 09:43 AM   #6
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Timing the Market, Hmmm, I think I've tried that once before.
I'm too lazy even to think about it ...

Me thinks the OP may be on the wrong forum...
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Old 09-28-2012, 09:47 AM   #7
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I might try and take advantage of some of the volatility and rebalance a bit here and there. Or buy on the dips. But I'd be afraid to try any kind of major market timing.
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Old 09-28-2012, 10:33 AM   #8
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Old 09-28-2012, 10:34 AM   #9
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I beleave that there will be a dip after the election and before the first of the year when congress will be threating not to make changes to avoid the fiscal cliff. Anyway I am sitting on 8% cash that will go into the market then. Some say that this is already built into the market.

What would worry me more is to see the market party up after the election. I am trying not to be a timer but it is tough. Right or wrong this cash will not make any big deal for me.
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Old 09-28-2012, 10:44 AM   #10
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Here's a chart of the average for election years since 1900. Generally your in until post inaugural. But averages hide a lot of volitility, same as expecting to get 7-8% average stock market returns. Plus 2000, 2004, 2008 didn't work to well...

http://www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen..._election.html
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Old 09-28-2012, 10:53 AM   #11
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Don't be so sure...
So you're saying if everyone got out beforehand we would all be winners? Hmmm, interesting. You may be onto something...
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Old 09-28-2012, 11:07 AM   #12
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So you're saying if everyone got out beforehand we would all be winners? Hmmm, interesting. You may be onto something...
You got it. We would all be above average.
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Old 09-28-2012, 04:24 PM   #13
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LOL....that's why I come here...it's the sage investment strategy advice...! Yeah, I tried the ol' market timing once myself. Or, was it twice....or 3 times? Hmmm....I'm the kid who had to burn his hand about 30 times before he figured out the stove was hot....heh heh
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Old 09-28-2012, 09:15 PM   #14
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when is the best time to get out?
As soon as you see me enter. Or so my timing would suggest.
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Old 09-29-2012, 09:44 AM   #15
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If intrade is to be believed, the election is already a done deal. But the idea of tactical trading to capture/avoid a big move implies there is still uncertainty.

So what gives? I'd say stay the course, all information is already factored in.
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Old 09-29-2012, 11:34 AM   #16
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Interesting, I hadn't looked at intrade since last month. That is pretty dramatic shift over the month. I wonder what was behind that.

I thought the OP might have been asking about the generic election year cycle as opposed to who wins.
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Old 09-29-2012, 06:53 PM   #17
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I time the market all the time. My timing is lousy, and in ER, time is not on my side - a fools game.
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Old 09-29-2012, 07:04 PM   #18
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My market timing is limited to hiding behind the rationalization of asset allocation rebalancing.
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Old 10-01-2012, 07:18 PM   #19
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Not a market timer. Even if you make the right call getting out, how do you decide when to get back in? Much better to determine an asset allocation that lets you sleep at night and then rebalance periodically. If you wait too long to rebalance, the market will do it for you ;-)
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Old 10-01-2012, 08:28 PM   #20
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Not a market timer. Even if you make the right call getting out, how do you decide when to get back in? Much better to determine an asset allocation that lets you sleep at night and then rebalance periodically. If you wait too long to rebalance, the market will do it for you ;-)
This is a question that has never made any sense to me. If you get out, and the market goes down, anytime that you get in at a lower point you have won. It doesn't have to be perfect.

I do not personally do this, but I sometimes do it with individual stocks. It is easy to make mistakes, but all you really need to do is cover the additional trading costs -small- and the taxes, which can be prohibitive.

Ha
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