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Timing the market and elections
11-06-2016, 05:33 AM
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#1
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 756
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Timing the market and elections
NO POLITICS!!
Listening to some financial talking heads this weekend, and they were discussing that no matter who wins, there will be some sort of perturbation in the market that would eventually go the opposite way longer term. Sounded interesting. I'm not a market-timer, tho.
As an aside, they were also observing stocks whose companies would benefit from either candidate winning, and watching who was buying what as a possible indicator of how the electorate will vote.
__________________
“Believe me, my young friend, there is nothing - absolutely nothing - half so much worth doing as simply messing about in boats.” ― Kenneth Grahame, The Wind in the Willows
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11-06-2016, 05:36 AM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,204
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I'm a long term investor, not a market timer... I'll stay the course and keep a broadly diversified equity portfolio.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
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11-06-2016, 05:38 AM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,000
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FIREmenow
NO POLITICS!!
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...
__________________
Numbers is hard
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11-06-2016, 05:47 AM
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#4
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,518
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I changed the thread title. Nothing like the aroma of freshly cooked bacon in the morning, though.
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11-06-2016, 06:01 AM
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#5
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Flyover country
Posts: 25,155
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FIREmenow
Listening to some financial talking heads this weekend, and they were discussing that no matter who wins, there will be some sort of perturbation in the market
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Well, yes. That's how they make their money -- by telling you something you already knew, then generating a fog of verbiage they can cherry-pick later to show how they predicted what happened. Best to simply ignore them.
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11-06-2016, 06:33 AM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 2,232
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i was at a social gathering on the eve of the last election, and a guy who made his money by managing other people's money was going on about how if Obama got elected he was advising all of his clients to get completely out of the market.
I have wondered if he actually did that, and if so, if he has any clients left.
My take: same old, same old. Be comfortable with your asset allocations and let the world keep on spinning.
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11-06-2016, 07:03 AM
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#7
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Conroe, Texas
Posts: 18,593
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski
I'm a long term investor, not a market timer... I'll stay the course and keep a broadly diversified equity portfolio.
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Wise man! That's my plan, unless I slide into panic mode!
__________________
*********Go Astros!*********
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11-06-2016, 07:10 AM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Texas
Posts: 10,836
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They have been talking about this for months. Everytime the polls change a point or two they change their rhetoric to fit their agenda. One of the main reasons I have quit watching much news these days. For me I haven't changed how I buy and sell.
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11-06-2016, 07:16 AM
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#9
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Utrecht
Posts: 2,650
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I did buy a new supply of cash covered puts on the S&P slightly ahead of my scheduled buy date (mid November).
Only reason was the recent small dip, I was first planning on wait&see given the Brexit experience.
I might be spectacularly wrong. One up for investing (speculating?) mistakes then.
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11-06-2016, 07:31 AM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 8,332
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Just hoping that on Wednesday the markets calm down and get on with it instead of swinging wildly with every little poll change.
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
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11-06-2016, 08:17 AM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 3,405
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I think we may have some instability because of the emotional content of this election. I hope a lot of effort is expended by all parties on reconciliation and working together after the election is over. That will go a long way towards stabilizing the financial markets.
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11-06-2016, 08:30 AM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,797
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I know who will win and where the market is going after that event. But I can't tell you guys until after it's over.
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11-06-2016, 08:33 AM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 8,971
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Rebalance, keep investing, tax loss harvest. Repeat.
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11-06-2016, 10:32 AM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 10,252
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I am going to put this in my market timing newsletter later this week, but I'll give you all an early peek:
I noticed this weekend that with the recent slight dip in the stock market indexes that I am underweight in equities. I believe some of this is because of changed perceptions of the outcome of the election. However, news from this weekend leaves the outcome in absolutely no doubt, so on Monday (tomorrow), I will be buying equities to rebalance my asset allocation back to its desired levels.
The market hates uncertainty and since things will be certain later this week, the market is going to pop up.
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11-06-2016, 10:52 AM
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#15
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Moderator
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: San Diego
Posts: 14,138
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I'm sticking to my Asset Allocation and periodic rebalancing on a schedule. I rebalance annually or if any of my bands are out by more than 5%... So unless the election knocks it out a lot - no rebalancing for me.
__________________
Retired June 2014. No longer an enginerd - now I'm just a nerd.
micro pensions 6%, rental income 20%
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11-06-2016, 12:30 PM
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#16
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 7,677
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Have already sold my losers and sitting on cash for reinvestment later in November. My extent of market timing! If the market turns up, great! If it continues to slide, I will wait for a while.
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For the fun of it...Keith
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11-06-2016, 01:46 PM
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#17
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Michigan
Posts: 4,939
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No market timing for me either.
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"The mountains are calling, and I must go." John Muir
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11-06-2016, 03:30 PM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
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No market timing for me either, I just haven't reinvested the proceeds from previous sales.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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11-06-2016, 03:45 PM
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#19
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Torrance
Posts: 116
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Lately the market tanks after an 8-year term. 2000, 2008, 2016?
I did a very un-Bogleheaded thing (again) and parked my $3M in cash about three weeks ago. I already made $200k this year so I took the luxury of heading to safety. Stupid yes but I dodged a $20K loss so far.
When will I re-enter? After the market crashes, or the dust settles.
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11-06-2016, 03:58 PM
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#20
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 29
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No one knows, you do what you gotta do!
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Your thoughts become your life.
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