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Ukraine bond fund?
Old 03-11-2015, 09:11 AM   #1
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Ukraine bond fund?

Just reading in the economist that ukraine raised the key rate to 30%. Was looking for a ukraine specific bond fund to make a play. Can't seem to find one.

Anyone know a ticker that might be close to what i am looking for?


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Old 03-11-2015, 09:48 AM   #2
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I think the fund name is Russian Roulette...
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Old 03-11-2015, 10:51 AM   #3
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Anyone know a ticker that might be close to what i am looking for?
In short: there isn't one available for retail investors, I looked into it a few months ago. The bonds are only available via institutional platforms.

Alternative option is buy equity of Ukrainan listed companies with a cross-listing on big stock exchanges (like London or New York).

Unfortunately, the pickings there are slim too, and mostly banks where I frankly would not dare to tread.

One of the only non-bank companies I could find (disclaimer: I bought some stock) is MHP http://quotes.morningstar.com/stock/s?t=MHPCion=gbr&culture=en-US

If you really want ukrainan bonds you need to find and invest with this guy: Investing in government debt: Where others fear to tread | The Economist
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Old 03-11-2015, 03:23 PM   #4
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Quoted yield aside, these bonds are trading at distressed levels and will likely be restructured. Depending on what the creditors agree to, I would expect to see a bond swap with the new bonds given for the old ones likely to have longer maturities and some combination of lower coupon and smaller face value.
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Old 03-11-2015, 03:34 PM   #5
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Well, it depends.

In Greece for example there was a voluntary bond swap + haircut with the institutionals and governments.

Any retail investors didn't get hurt and the bonds are still being paid interest on. You could have had a triple digit return (!). Even with the haircut the damage was okish - basically redeem at then par value.

All this so as to avoid a formal default.

Ukraine is a bit different but the EU / US may try something similar to limit the economic damage it has sustained so far. Or it may be propped up further with IMF loans.

Obviously don't have a crystal ball but it's quite safe in my view at these levels. Likely worst case money back, best case triple digit returns. But it's not for the faint-hearted as there is a small meltdown risk.
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Old 03-11-2015, 04:15 PM   #6
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I would not Putin much money.
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Old 03-11-2015, 04:17 PM   #7
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I would not Putin much money into them.
There is that "event risk" as well.
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Old 03-11-2015, 04:19 PM   #8
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Well, MHP is a poultry farm.

So why chicken out?
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Old 03-11-2015, 06:17 PM   #9
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I'm willing to bet nato countries help ukraine to keep the russia line from moving.


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Old 03-11-2015, 06:20 PM   #10
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I'm willing to bet nato countries help ukraine to keep the russia line from moving.


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A proxy war fought on Ukraine's territory will do nothing good for its creditworthiness.
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Old 03-12-2015, 06:12 AM   #11
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There you go:

IMF announces multi-billion finance program for Ukraine | News | DW.DE | 11.03.2015

Ukraine failing is very unlikely, it's strategically important. Russians also don't want a permanent PR disaster, just the right to block Ukraine membership of NATO.
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