Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Want to increase % of stock allocation...timing?
Old 11-17-2016, 05:46 PM   #1
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 33
Want to increase % of stock allocation...timing?

Seeking any advise on market timing to increase my allocation of stocks (index funds).
I'm a conservative investor -currently abt 85% stable value & bonds and 15% stocks (VHDYX and extended market fund) but want to increase the allotment of stocks. I don't need this for monthly expenses as I'm still working, but would like to see some more growth. I get nervous above a 30/70 allocation, but would be comfortable between 15-30% stock allocation.
I have 35-40k that I'm comfortable moving, so should I wait for a down day in the market to make the change, move a % at a time, just do it all at once, or just continue to sit on the sidelines for a while?

Any thoughts?
__________________

__________________
TGL405 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 11-17-2016, 05:50 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 8,534
Ah, the ol' "Buy now or wait?" question. No one can predict the future.

So do both: Buy some now and invest more every month until you got what you want. You can also buy more if things drop.

Also what to buy is tricky. Do you buy something going up like a small-cap value fund or your mid/small cap fund? Or do you buy something that has dropped like an international fund or an emerging markets fund?

Oh, did I tell you that no one can predict the future?
__________________

__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2016, 05:51 PM   #3
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,253
This is a discussion on timing so I moved the thread
__________________
MichaelB is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2016, 06:39 PM   #4
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 33
[I]"So do both: Buy some now and invest more every month until you got what you want. You can also buy more if things drop.

Also what to buy is tricky. Do you buy something going up like a small-cap value fund or your mid/small cap fund? Or do you buy something that has dropped like an international fund or an emerging markets fund"? [/I]



I was thinking 50/50 S&P and either total mkt or small caps...
__________________
TGL405 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2016, 06:49 PM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 18,159
Yes, go all in, up to your max AA on March 09, 2009.

Ooops, you missed it! See post from LOL!.

There has been a lot of reasoned analysis in this forum that the market is overvalued and primed for a fall, or at least an extended flat period. I don't disagree with that assessment, but the market has not been listening... so far.

15-30% is a very low equity exposure. I fear that if you put more in, you might be tempted to sell on any drop? Whatever method you choose, make sure you are prepared for the volatility.

-ERD50
Attached Images
File Type: png Screenshot - 11172016 - 06:42:31 PM.png (106.8 KB, 34 views)
__________________
ERD50 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2016, 06:56 PM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 8,534
Quote:
Originally Posted by TGL405 View Post
I was thinking 50/50 S&P and either total mkt or small caps...
So, you like the buy-high momentum play? You've got some guts.

Full disclosure: Those are the things on my list to sell soon.
__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2016, 07:01 PM   #7
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 33
I did miss it in 2009, because 2008 still hurts too much!
I think I'm still in protection mode, but I'm at least peeking out from under the rock (it's taken awhile).
Unless I hear or see additional good advice, maybe I'll just change future deposits to 30/70 and wait for a pullback to put in a larger chunk at a time.
__________________
TGL405 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2016, 07:06 PM   #8
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,248
Just stay where you are comfortable

I was all my life 100% equities 2008 crisis, Russians in Crimea, Twin Towers, you name it I don't care.
__________________
eta2020 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2016, 07:09 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 8,534
Here is something about uncertainty and control that you might find helpful:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/15/yo...l-control.html
__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2016, 07:09 PM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
RetireAge50's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 1,108
Just put it all in and call it a day. The reason you put money in stocks is for it to double every 7 years or so. Who cares when it falls 25% or whatever.
__________________
RetireAge50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2016, 07:10 PM   #11
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,248
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
There has been a lot of reasoned analysis in this forum that the market is overvalued and primed for a fall, or at least an extended flat period. I don't disagree with that assessment, but the market has not been listening... so far.
-ERD50
Friend of mine is telling me that since 2009
__________________
eta2020 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2016, 07:17 PM   #12
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by eta2020 View Post
Just stay where you are comfortable

I was all my life 100% equities 2008 crisis, Russians in Crimea, Twin Towers, you name it I don't care.
I really wish I could do that, and I'm trying. Many people feel a sense of renewed hope- or some kind of change is upon the country...we'll see how that plays out, but it does give me confidence to put some more money to work.
__________________
TGL405 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2016, 07:18 PM   #13
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 18,159
Quote:
Originally Posted by eta2020 View Post
Friend of mine is telling me that since 2009
Let us know when he finally decides to buy, we can sell with confidence then!

-ERD50
__________________
ERD50 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2016, 07:21 PM   #14
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,248
Quote:
Originally Posted by TGL405 View Post
I really wish I could do that, and I'm trying. Many people feel a sense of renewed hope- or some kind of change is upon the country...we'll see how that plays out, but it does give me confidence to put some more money to work.
There is ALWAYS something to worry about. I know what you are referring to.

To me it is worry, not a renewed confidence. But market will do quite fine on a long run.
__________________
eta2020 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2016, 07:36 PM   #15
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 16,124
You could value average it in over a period of time. Let's say you chose to invest $40k over 10 months. Invest $4k. A month later add whatever you need to to bring the value up to $8k. A month later add whatever you need to to bring the value up to $12k. Repeat until the entire amount is invested.

You'll invest more when the market is relatively low and less when it is relatively high.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2016, 07:44 PM   #16
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 33
I think it just cycles about every eight years or so, but I'm just trying to keep positive. Positivity is contagious. Maybe that's what is happening in the markets right now?
__________________
TGL405 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2016, 07:50 PM   #17
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
You could value average it in over a period of time. Let's say you chose to invest $40k over 10 months. Invest $4k. A month later add whatever you need to to bring the value up to $8k. A month later add whatever you need to to bring the value up to $12k. Repeat until the entire amount is invested.

You'll invest more when the market is relatively low and less when it is relatively high.
I like the idea, but I don't understand the last sentence..Does that mean the market is lower more than it's higher- or that the market just continues to go up over time?
__________________
TGL405 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2016, 09:51 PM   #18
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Dash man's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Limerick
Posts: 1,659
You may want to dump some of your bonds and then put a little in equities over the next few months. Good time to reduce your bond exposure.
__________________
Dash man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2016, 10:17 PM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 16,124
Quote:
Originally Posted by TGL405 View Post
I like the idea, but I don't understand the last sentence..Does that mean the market is lower more than it's higher- or that the market just continues to go up over time?
Neither. Let's say your $4,000 declines to $3,500 the first month... then you invest $4,500 (to raise your $3,500 to $8,000). OTOH, if your $4,000 increases to $4,500 then you would only invest $3,500 (which would increase your $4,500 balance to $8,000).

So you invest more with the market is relatively low and less when the market is relatively high.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2016, 11:09 PM   #20
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Sunset's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Chicago
Posts: 4,579
Quote:
Originally Posted by TGL405 View Post
I did miss it in 2009, because 2008 still hurts too much!
I think I'm still in protection mode, but I'm at least peeking out from under the rock (it's taken awhile).
Unless I hear or see additional good advice, maybe I'll just change future deposits to 30/70 and wait for a pullback to put in a larger chunk at a time.
When you say this, it tells me you are incredibly nervous about the market, and could easily (did) fall into the trap of:
Buy when high because everything looks good, feels good and happy (this is where you are right now).
Sell when low because the world is horrible, everyone is scared, it will all end (maybe you did this in 2008? ).

I think you are on the right idea, change your future deposits to more stock, and wait for a 10% pull back to stick in a big wad of money (maybe 1/4 of it). Then if pull back is still around or worse, put in more each month.

And whatever you put in stock (ex VTI), don't sell it for 10 years.
__________________

__________________
Sunset is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Market Timing Schmarket Timing bob boag FIRE and Money 160 10-20-2014 09:10 PM
Timing of exercising stock options Lazyfabs Stock Picking and Market Strategy 13 08-27-2014 11:05 AM
time to increase allocation to illiquid assets? kevink FIRE and Money 6 09-21-2008 04:05 PM
Investment Timing/Allocation DFW_M5 FIRE and Money 7 10-16-2003 06:39 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 04:59 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.