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What about Apple now?
Old 01-14-2013, 11:23 AM   #1
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What about Apple now?

I know there have been some on this board that has talked about how Apple is a wonderful investement etc. etc...


What do you think of it now that it is $200 off of it's high


I was always a bit shocked on how quickly and how high it rose...
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Old 01-14-2013, 11:30 AM   #2
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Apple is volatile, just like most tech stocks.
My practice over the past quarter of a century has been to buy AAPL each time its price totally tanks because nearly everyone is negative on it as a business. I have been richly rewarded for my belief in it.

Naturally, past performance is no guarantee etc. etc.
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Old 01-14-2013, 11:31 AM   #3
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vxp036000 will be along shortly to inform you that it was obvious and how much he made shorting Apple.
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Old 01-14-2013, 11:50 AM   #4
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Much talk on the financial "pages" about phone saturation, and the cancellation of screen component as well as reviews of the newest Samsung, Nokia and Blackberry models.
Could this be?.....


Johnny Mathis - Odds And Ends - YouTube
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Old 01-14-2013, 12:28 PM   #5
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The dance can't go on forever.

If product differentiation is not winning the marketplace, where do they go next?
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Old 01-14-2013, 03:13 PM   #6
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I saw the drop, and took a look at it this AM.

Trailing P/E of just ~11 - wow, that is really low for a 'high flyer'. Looks like its P/E is roughly in the bottom 20% of the S&P500.

So I'm tempted to say this drop is overblown, and a buying op. OTOH, could a relatively small drop in sales result in a huge drop in profits? I haven't analyzed the business recently to get a feel for that, if it is 'knowable'.

I have made a ton of money on AAPL in the past. When it was trading at it's lows, I felt the stock was misunderstood by the general market. Now that it has been on this dip from a high, could it be misunderstood again?

But I stopped trading when it was ~ 100 - I just was not as confident they could continue to rise faster than the market So take the above with a Mid-West road-salt truck sized amount of grains salt.

-ERD50
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Old 01-14-2013, 03:35 PM   #7
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I expect Apple's near future to be strongly influenced by the success or failure of two products: Apple TV and Microsoft Surface Pro.
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Old 01-14-2013, 04:44 PM   #8
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They haven't introduced anything new for more than 2 years, and there doesn't appear to be anything in the pipeline.

I like apple products, but I don't like the stock at such a high price with nothing truly innovative coming up. Their following will only follow them so far in their release of trivial upgrades.
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Old 01-15-2013, 09:21 AM   #9
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I think AAPL may be in the process of becoming a value stock. The dividend yield is higher than the interest rate on a 10-year Treasury, and the dividend is likely to increase substantially over the next few years. On the other hand, the market seems negative on AAPL these days, so buying it is fighting the tape. If you want to own AAPL, it's probably a good time to start averaging into a position if you have a long-term view. If your view is more short-term, I think the best way to play AAPL is probably with vertical call spreads since option premiums are relatively low, and you can define your downside risk precisely.
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Old 01-15-2013, 10:19 AM   #10
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It will be really interesting to see what the real situation is compared to all the wild rumors that have been flying about, regurgitated, and "reported" on.

Meanwhile the PE keeps getting lower and lower.

Stay tuned on Jan 23rd....

Our AAPL basis is so low we don't really care. In the meantime - sure enjoying the dividend.....
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Old 01-15-2013, 10:42 AM   #11
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I dipped my toe back in.

Sold one weekly put (Jan 19) $480, got $4 for it. AAPL ~ $489 right now, so another $9 drop for it to be put on me, a $13 drop to exceed my break-even. Then I'd have $48K tied to it.

~ $380 potential profit in four days if it expires. I'm guessing/betting the short-term sellers have been shaken out, but that's nothing but gut feeling.

If it does get put on me, I have to think about that Jan 23rd EA date.

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Old 01-15-2013, 11:01 AM   #12
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Apple is transitioning into the old tech club, and with that transition their investor base is changing. They have so much cash they could buy a country. My bet is that they will do just fine.
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Old 01-15-2013, 11:07 AM   #13
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Why The WSJ Got The "iPhone Demand Is Crashing" Story All Wrong - Forbes

It will remain the Wild West out there until Apple actually says something about their business on Jan 23.
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Old 01-15-2013, 12:50 PM   #14
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I think what is more likely is that apple has fewer niches to exploit. Whats left.

everything is digital and wireless. they cannot get exclusivity on tv shows and distribution which is probably the only niche left.


I do however see the posssibility of an IWATCH
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Old 01-15-2013, 02:08 PM   #15
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I nibbled at AAPL today.

My position is still very small.
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Old 01-15-2013, 02:10 PM   #16
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It's even lower when you consider they have $100+ billion in cash.

The market seems to think their earnings are going to plunge.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Trailing P/E of just ~11 - wow, that is really low for a 'high flyer'. Looks like its P/E is roughly in the bottom 20% of the S&P500.
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Old 01-15-2013, 04:41 PM   #17
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The shares I have left have an average cost of around $300, so I can watch this without any real concern. If the price drops another $100, I'll probably buy more. I still have friends (software engineers) who work at Apple, and I feel confident that they are still the best of the best.
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Old 01-15-2013, 08:05 PM   #18
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Apple's future is in a virtually untapped China market. It is a status symbol there. Within two years apple will be a $800 stock. Watch for a huge run up shortly before or just after the debt ceiling "crises" is resolved in DC.
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Old 01-16-2013, 05:09 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Sold one weekly put (Jan 19) $480, got $4 for it.
Nice trade.
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Old 01-16-2013, 06:05 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FIRE'd@51 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Sold one weekly put (Jan 19) $480, got $4 for it.
Nice trade.
It appears so, but I'll count that chicken at 3:00PM ET this Friday

Or I could buy it back ~ 0.40 to lock it in, but I most likely won't.

And I also need to factor in the fact that I had to sell 100 SPY (net $146.71) to free up cash to cover the put, so I would subtract any gain/loss to really know where I'm at. That's currently knocking ~ .35 off my gains.

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