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What would you do if Crystal Ball showed long term market drop of 30% next week
Old 10-15-2017, 10:34 AM   #1
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What would you do if Crystal Ball showed long term market drop of 30% next week

Curious... what would you do with your investment portfolio if you had a crystal ball and could see a long term (2+ years) drop in the market of 30% in the next week? What would be your flight to safety? Gold? Bitcoin? CD's? Cash? Specific stocks that fair well in market downturn? Do you already have a plan in mind or just fly by seat of your pants?
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Old 10-15-2017, 10:42 AM   #2
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I have an asset allocation and I stick with it. Worked in the last crash and I expect it to work in the next one.
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Old 10-15-2017, 10:44 AM   #3
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I'd market the services of my crystal ball to the masses and make a bundle as a market guru.
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Old 10-15-2017, 10:58 AM   #4
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I'd start shorting stocks and covering then buy them back in 2 years -
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Old 10-15-2017, 10:59 AM   #5
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I'd market the services of my crystal ball to the masses and make a bundle as a market guru.
+1

Otherwise I'd buy puts or inverse ETFs.
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Old 10-15-2017, 11:01 AM   #6
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I'd probably realize that what I could see in my crystal ball was no better than any other predictor of where the market was going, try to ease up on the recreational drugs (if I were prone to using any) and stay the course.
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Old 10-15-2017, 11:07 AM   #7
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I'd market the services of my crystal ball to the masses and make a bundle as a market guru.
+1 But I wouldn't market to the masses.

I wouldn't give away the information I obtained from that crystal ball, for free or for any price the masses could afford. I would absolutely NEVER write a clickbait column about market doom'n'gloom.

Instead, I would keep my mouth shut except to discreetly market my info for astronomically high prices to those with massive wealth. Zuckerberg and Gates would be on their knees before me, begging piteously for my information.

"No, Mark! No, Bill! You peons KNOW that will cost you another $10 billion, so pay up!"


*****************************


As for what I would do with my portfolio to protect it from the predicted market drop, I'd do absolutely nothing other than rebalance as needed. I have it in very broad mutual funds, 45:55.
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Old 10-15-2017, 11:11 AM   #8
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If indeed I had a true crystal ball I would go to all cash and then rebuy to accumulate the extra shares thus increasing my dividends. Without the crystal ball, I, as most on this forum would do is stay the course.
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Old 10-15-2017, 11:20 AM   #9
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If I had an operational crystal ball I would have already won the last 50 major lotteries....
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Old 10-15-2017, 11:24 AM   #10
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How much is that crystal ball?
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Old 10-15-2017, 11:24 AM   #11
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The premise is too outrageous for me to entertain.
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Old 10-15-2017, 11:28 AM   #12
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Since I have no crystal ball I'm more concerned with what I'm going to do when the inevitable 30% drop actually hits. We haven't had a hard smack down since I retired. It was easy to keep buying while I was working, wonder if it will be with no new income coming in.
The plan is to hang tough and rebalance buying shares.
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Old 10-15-2017, 11:35 AM   #13
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Sorry, but the crystal ball was a one time use, only focused on just the market outlook. So you can't win lottos or other prizes with it in the past or future. And let's just say you can't share info with others.

Sure at face value its just silly, but what if it was just your read on the market instead? What if there was 50/50 chance of that being right? Would you really just stay the course with that knowledgeable?

Its Sunday, a bit of levity before the kickoffs. Enjoy the day.
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Old 10-15-2017, 11:38 AM   #14
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... I wouldn't give away the information I obtained from that crystal ball, for free or for any price the masses could afford. ...
Exactly. The corollary here is that anyone who actually can predict the market is on a tropical island somewhere drinking from a glass garnished with an orchid. He/she is not writing a newsletter or working for a money managment company.What we get (if we are dumb enough to pay attention) is a bunch of chattering monkeys, each of whom hopes to get lucky and, for that, be lauded as a genius.
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Old 10-15-2017, 11:43 AM   #15
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Nothing - no changes to asset allocation or to investments. Wait for it to happen, then rebalance. Then wait for W2R to yell "W...."

Rebalance again.

- Rita
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Old 10-15-2017, 11:44 AM   #16
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Would the crystal ball tell of later increases in the market?

If its only capability is to predict drops in the market then I would have to ignore it.

Knowing when the market will increase in value is just as important.

-gauss
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Old 10-15-2017, 11:47 AM   #17
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Knowing when the market will increase in value is just as important.

-gauss
This part is easy. Just wait for W2R. Speaking of which she could probably earn more for her favorite charities by selling the date/time when she will speak the "W..." phrase.
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Old 10-15-2017, 12:07 PM   #18
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Curious... what would you do with your investment portfolio if you had a crystal ball and could see a long term (2+ years) drop in the market of 30% in the next week? What would be your flight to safety? Gold? Bitcoin? CD's? Cash? Specific stocks that fair well in market downturn? Do you already have a plan in mind or just fly by seat of your pants?
Guess I'm just dense, but this seems like a worthwhile thing to ponder. We are up a fair bit in the market and I can easily imagine a 30% drop. If we sell now we pay 15% taxes to the feds and a chunk to the state. Then we have say 80% of our profit left and we... do what with it? Nobody with a better answer than leave the money in the market and wait for a rally (inevitable saith the faithful)?

We had a good sized loan pay off last week and the money is sitting in the bank losing ground at 1.15%. I'm trying to figure out what to do with it - do we hold and wait for a big stock crash and buy in then? Wait for another real estate crash to go shopping? Buy more stocks at an all time high? I persist in not understanding crypto-currrencies, we have a dab of gold and I don't think it's where we want to stash a pile.
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Old 10-15-2017, 12:47 PM   #19
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Sorry, but the crystal ball was a one time use, only focused on just the market outlook.
Maybe yours has that limitation, but mine doesn't.
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Old 10-15-2017, 12:48 PM   #20
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We had a good sized loan pay off last week and the money is sitting in the bank losing ground at 1.15%. I'm trying to figure out what to do with it - do we hold and wait for a big stock crash and buy in then? Wait for another real estate crash to go shopping? Buy more stocks at an all time high? I persist in not understanding crypto-currrencies, we have a dab of gold and I don't think it's where we want to stash a pile.
I have the same situation. For several months, I have been unable to make a move... I am the world's greatest procrastinator.
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