What's got people excited about the future of the economy?

[NYEXPAT]

One word "BLOCKCHAIN",or is that two words?

 

[marko]

We are more likely to have advanced technology simultaneously with poverty, crimes, drug abuse, political unrest, etc...

IMO, been like that since the Romans ruled the world.
As William Gibson wrote: "The future is here. It's just unevenly distributed."

 

[Senator]

The $1000 bonuses companies are giving, I don't see as generous. Why not give raises if the new tax plan is so awesome? The middle class drives our economy. Credit drives our economy.

That's too bad, I was just going to send you a $1,000 check. It seems you do not think it will help you.

A $1,000 bonus is like a 0.50 raise, one time. Hopefully bonuses can continue. Several companies have already increased wages to at least $15 an hour. There is a worker (not labor) shortage, so wages will likely increase further.

Imagine if you did not have to pay taxes at all, how much more money you could spend? In my own businesses, I will save ~$3,000. That's an extra $3K that will either drive up the stock market, or drive up Amazon's profits... The S&P profits will continue to increase, and the stock market prices will too.

With lower taxes, companies have additional incentive to produce here. The USA is still at a disadvantage compared to other countries labor rates. The middle class drives the economy, but without jobs, they are not driving anything.

We are in the very early stages of Global wage equalization. We have a lot more years before a person living in a hut in a 3rd world country has the same lifestyle as someone in the USA.

I can guarantee the factories in Connecticut are not coming back, and neither are the thousands of jobs that went away. Sad.

If they do come back, it will not be in CT. Not without subsidies.

If you do not believe that factories will ever come back, let's hope that enough people hire low-skilled labor to do our chores. The upcoming demographics indicate low-education and low-skill jobs are the future for most of America. Technology dumbs down higher skilled jobs to the point a high-school drop out can do them. It takes a few engineers or IT folks, but they are becoming less and less relevant as technology even replaces them.

A computer calculates change at a restaurant, and even sometimes gives it out. Phones and debit cards take away the need to even calculate change for a person to give out. The internet and on-line sales take away the need for a a knowledgeable sales person. Computers make drinks at a bar, so a bartender doesn't have to know 500+ drinks from memory. A kiosk or tablet lets someone order, and pay at a table, and even call the server, so the Server doesn't really have to know how to be a server, just a delivery person.

 

[capjak]

The $1000 bonuses companies are giving, I don't see as generous. Why not give raises if the new tax plan is so awesome? T

Some companies are giving raises.

Partial List below:

Aflac: $250 million boost in U.S. investments and increased 401(k) benefits, including one-time contribution of $500 to every employee’s retirement savings account.

American Savings Bank: $1,000 bonus to 1,150 employees, nearly the entire workforce, and increase of minimum wage from $12.21 an hour to $15.15.

Aquesta Financial Holdings: $1,000 bonus to all employees, increase in minimum wage to $15 per hour.

Associated Bank: $500 bonus to nearly all employees and increased minimum wage to $15 per hour, up from $10.

AT&T: $1,000 bonus to all 200,000 U.S. workers and $1 billion boost in U.S. investments.

Bank of America: $1,000 bonus for about 145,000 U.S. employees.

Bank of Hawaii: $1,000 bonus for 2,074 employees, or 95 percent of its workforce, and increase of minimum wage from $12 to $15.

BB&T Corp.: $1,200 bonus for almost three-fourths of associates, or 27,000 employees, and increase in minimum wage from $12 to $15.

Boeing: $300 million boost in investments to employee gift-match programs, workforce development, and workplace improvements.

Central Pacific Bank: $1,000 bonus to all 850 nonexecutive employees and increase in minimum wage from $12 to $15.25.

Comcast NBCUniversal: $1,000 bonus for more than 100,000 employees.

Deleware Supermarkets Inc.: $150 bonus to 1,000 nonmanagement employees and $150,000 in new investment in employee training and development programs.

Express Employment Prc: $2,000 bonus to all nonexecutive employees at Oklahoma City headquarters.

Fifth Third Bancorp: $1,000 bonus for all 13,500 employees and increase of minimum wage to $15 for nearly 3,000 workers.

First Hawaiian Bank: $1,500 bonus for all 2,264 employees and increase in minimum wage to $15.

First Horizon National Corp.: $1,000 bonus to employees who do not participate in company-sponsored bonus plans.

Kansas City Southern: $1,000 bonus to employees of subsidiaries in the U.S. and Mexico.

Melaleuca: $100 bonus for every year an employee has worked for the company—an average of $800 for each of 2,000 workers.

National Bank Holdings Corp.: $1,000 bonus to all noncommissioned associates who earn a base salary under $50,000.

Nelnet: $1,000 bonus for nearly all of 4,100 employees.

Nephron Parmaceuticals: wage increase of 5 percent for its 640 employees.

Nexus: wage increase of 5 percent and plans to hire 200 workers in 2018.

OceanFirst Bank: increase in minimum wage from $13.60 to $15, affecting at least 166 employees.

PNC Bank: $1,000 bonus to 47,500 employees and $1,500 increase to existing pension accounts.

Pinnacle Bank: $1,000 bonus for all full-time employees in Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri.

Pioneer Credit Recovery: $1,000 bonus to employees.

Rush Enterprises Inc.: $1,000 discretionary bonus to 6,600 U.S. employees.

Sinclair Broadcast: $1,000 bonus to nearly 9,000 employees.

SunTrust: increase of minimum wage to $15, $50 million increase in community grants, 1 percent 401(k) contribution for all employees.

Turning Point Brands, Inc.: $1,000 bonus to 107 employees.

Washington Federal, Inc.: wage increase of 5 percent for employees earning less than $100,000 per year and increased investments in technology infrastructure and community projects.

Wells Fargo: increase in minimum wage from $13.50 to $15, and higher charitable giving by about 40 percent, to $400 million.

Western Alliance: wage increase of 7.5 percent for the lowest-paid 50 percent of employees.

 

[dixonge]

I'm looking at the S&P P/E ratios today and thinking wow, people sure are optimistic about future growth.

I don't think the big funds are looking beyond the next six months and the impact of the new tax rates.

 

[Winemaker]

That's absolutely true even now. But once AI is equal to or superior to human intelligence, then there are no jobs whatsoever that won't be better done by robots. None.

Underground coal miners. Although we have been automated for decades, it takes a human to make a decision about a lot of things underground. And although some will say that coal powered electricity will be eliminated, it will be the base power source if we want a manufacturing based economy. Nuclear could replace it, but it has to be mined, although not by as many people.

 

[Running_Man]

The market is just beginning to come to grips with what the tax plan means. An immediate increase in earnings of at least 20% for companies paying 35% in taxes and with the capital changes for expense you are probably looking at an average tax savings of 25% of profits which drops the S&P 500 from a PE of 26 to 20.5 before any increase or growth in the economy 3% growth drops the PE under 19. Since there is an incentive now to find earning since the rate is lower and you can claim capital expenditures against the tax cost expect most companies to have positive earning surprises in 2018. That the S&P would be at 15 PE based on today's closing prices and 2018 earnings would be what I would expect. So whatever the market would decide to price those earnings out by the end of the year will be how much gain or loss there will be. My gues would be between 18-20 PE so planning a 20-33% gain for 2018 myself

 

[Mr._Graybeard]

I do sometimes wonder if we will have to do like ancient Rome and Constantinople did and provide bread and video(virtual reality) games as Clarke suggested in the City and the Stars.

That and soma, a la Huxley.

 

[lwp2017]

I think a realistic major uplift to global prosperity could happen with advances in education and productivity in the third world.

Can you imagine how much wealth would be created if sub Sahara Africa had the same productivity levels as South Korea or Israel? They certainly have the same natural resource capacities that the US built upon.

Granted disease, government corruption, lack of national unity, etc are in the way.

 

[JDARNELL]

My gues would be between 18-20 PE so planning a 20-33% gain for 2018 myself

Boy that would be nice!

 

[CaliforniaMan]

Underground coal miners. Although we have been automated for decades, it takes a human to make a decision about a lot of things underground. And although some will say that coal powered electricity will be eliminated, it will be the base power source if we want a manufacturing based economy. Nuclear could replace it, but it has to be mined, although not by as many people.

Seems to me that in the developed world, manufacturing based economies are becoming as obsolete as farming based economies have already become. Today we have more farm production than ever, but we are long past being a farming based economy. In the future I would bet there will be more manufacturing than ever, people never seem to run out of things to want, but our economy will never again be based on it. The accelerating progress of scientific and technological innovation, notably machine intelligence and low cost of data and information flow, has made that change inevitable. The real question now is how we as people and nations will deal with it. Such profound dislocations will have profound repercussions, and neither politicians of the right or the left seem to want or know how to deal with it. We are in for some rough weather.

 

[Totoro]

That's absolutely true even now. But once AI is equal to or superior to human intelligence, then there are no jobs whatsoever that won't be better done by robots. None.

Some jobs have as most defining quality that humans do them, these won't be replaced.

Handcrafted items, rent-a-family, voting contests (elections), rule making, that sort of thing.

Whether that's enough to provide everyone with purpose and work, to be seen.

 

[Running_Man]

Seems to me that in the developed world, manufacturing based economies are becoming as obsolete as farming based economies have already become. Today we have more farm production than ever, but we are long past being a farming based economy. In the future I would bet there will be more manufacturing than ever, people never seem to run out of things to want, but our economy will never again be based on it. The accelerating progress of scientific and technological innovation, notably machine intelligence and low cost of data and information flow, has made that change inevitable. The real question now is how we as people and nations will deal with it. Such profound dislocations will have profound repercussions, and neither politicians of the right or the left seem to want or know how to deal with it. We are in for some rough weather.

In the last 4 years manufacturing jobs have increased over 9 percent by more than one million jobs even as the economy has grown at a slower rate. Construction Jobs in the last four years has risen by over 25% to 6 million workers. It is true that since 2000 the US has lost about 5 million jobs, even after gaining 1 million back recently. However China has gained, thanks in large part to extremely low shipping costs of goods, 16 million manufacturing jobs to 100 million manufacturing jobs up to nearly $3.60 in wages hourly and Mexico has gained 1 million manufacturing jobs, from 4 million to a little over 5 million at $2.48 cents per hour. I think finance and cost has a lot more to do with manufacturing jobs than the takeover by robots, by robots sell more video commericials for websites

 

[LOL!]

Today's jobs report shows that fewer jobs were created in 2017 than in 2016.

 

[Which Roger]

IMO, been like that since the Romans ruled the world.
As William Gibson wrote: "The future is here. It's just unevenly distributed."

+1 There's plenty of wealth out there, and it's increasing all the time. The challenge is how to get everybody in the game. I heard a discussion on NPR yesterday about various ways companies are dealing with a lack of qualified workers - more automation, increase pay to hold on to those they do have, turn away new business, etc. As time goes on, the bar is raised for what constitutes "qualified", and that's the challenge we're facing these days.

 

[Chuckanut]

Our economy is a feedback loop.

Investors build factories, etc. (increasing supply) in the hopes of making more money
Consumers (that's mostly the middle class) buy the goods and services driving the demand for what the investors are making.

Both need to be economically healthy for the loop to work properly.

An investor is not going to build a new factory or whatever increasing supply if he/she thinks that people can't or won't buy what is produced.

Consumers (again the middle class) are not going to buy goods and services the investor produces, driving demand, if they don't have the financial resources/security to do so.

It's a feedback loop.

 

[capjak]

Today's jobs report shows that fewer jobs were created in 2017 than in 2016.

December jobs report: U.S. economy added 2 million jobs in 2017 - Jan. 5, 2018

"The United States added almost 3 million jobs in 2014, 2.7 million in 2015 and 2.2 million in 2016. That trend is what's expected in such a long economic expansion. As unemployment moves to historic lows, job gains eventually slow down."

Amazing that 2 million more people went to work in 2017 with such low unemployment. According to the article small business can not fill their open positions and the Manufacturing hires went up 200,000 vs a decline in 2016.

We are going to see wages go up resulting in price increases, I believe.

"In Phoenix, where the unemployment rate is a few notches below the national average, wages grew more than 5% in December, the best of any U.S. metro area, according to a separate report by Paychex, a payment processor, and IHS Markit, an analytics firm."

 

[CaliforniaMan]

In the last 4 years manufacturing jobs have increased over 9 percent by more than one million jobs even as the economy has grown at a slower rate. Construction Jobs in the last four years has risen by over 25% to 6 million workers. It is true that since 2000 the US has lost about 5 million jobs, even after gaining 1 million back recently. However China has gained, thanks in large part to extremely low shipping costs of goods, 16 million manufacturing jobs to 100 million manufacturing jobs up to nearly $3.60 in wages hourly and Mexico has gained 1 million manufacturing jobs, from 4 million to a little over 5 million at $2.48 cents per hour. I think finance and cost has a lot more to do with manufacturing jobs than the takeover by robots, by robots sell more video commericials for websites

I guess I should have been more specific, I was not referring to the ebb and flow of jobs during business cycles, but rather to the long trend over what will probably be many cycles. We did not change from a primarily farming economy to a primarily manufacturing one over one or two business cycles, and we will not be moving out of being a primarily manufacturing economy over one or two business cycles either. But the trend is unstoppable. Technological change is simply moving too fast and accelerating. There will be a smaller and smaller percentage of the population engaged in direct manufacturing in the future, worldwide. We should not allow the ups and downs of the business cycle to obscure that trend, and what we should do about it. My point, I think was, that while we focus on the current cycle, we are not looking at what we want to do for the future of this much larger and more profound change. Thus my remark about a future of stormy weather. Along the way there will be those trying to sell us umbrellas, storm drains, and tin foil hats, but just as those engaged in those first manufacturing jobs had miserable lives, those that live in a post manufacturing world just might too. I don't think it has to be that way, but who knows. Certainly not me.

 

[Bamaman]

N.Y. cousin's son graduated with a degree from the University of Houston with a major in Computer Engineering.

He has no desire to write code. He went straight to working with industrial robots, and has had a bunch of job offers. For recreation, he is into drones and the incredible things they can do with packs of the running in unison.

Our area is very robot dependent whether it is robot welding on power plants, robots welding automobile components, robot spray painting. And who knows what do it's are doing on our area's biggest industry--heavy lift rockets.

And to the north of us, Amazon has a bunch of warehouses with robots carrying shelving units to check out and stocking stations.

Yep, robots are much of the future of manufacturing and warehousing, and it would be a great field to get into.