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Old 06-10-2010, 09:30 AM   #61
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What about APC? Taken a hit with the Horizon mess, but out of the spotlight...I'm not sure what voodoo analyzing magic one does, but it seems better than BP if one is worried about a PR nightmare...
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Old 06-10-2010, 09:45 AM   #62
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Would be awful funny if BP would be taken over by some Chinese oil company.

If this incident was caused by some American company like Exxon, I think the press as well as the administration would be taking a much different tone.
I agree. The reaction has been extremely counterproductive.

Let's just run all the oil companies out of business. So, we can get all of our oil from OPEC, Venezuela, and Russia. Sounds like a good plan...
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Old 06-10-2010, 09:52 AM   #63
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I agree. The reaction has been extremely counterproductive.

Let's just run all the oil companies out of business. So, we can get all of our oil from OPEC, Venezuela, and Russia. Sounds like a good plan...
just an interesting note of history, the idea of OPEC was conceived by a venzuelan while in exile in the US.
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Old 06-10-2010, 01:36 PM   #64
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Interesting comments
10 Thoughts for Those Buying (or Selling) BP… | The Big Picture
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Old 06-10-2010, 02:38 PM   #65
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I would NOT buy BP, considering the majority party in power. BP is on notice that the witch trials are about to start.............huge fines and punitive damage legislation will be forthcoming....how else are we going to get to $7.00/gallon for gas so the alternative energy cars with high subsidies become mainstream??
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Old 06-10-2010, 03:19 PM   #66
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I would NOT buy BP, considering the majority party in power. BP is on notice that the witch trials are about to start.............huge fines and punitive damage legislation will be forthcoming....how else are we going to get to $7.00/gallon for gas so the alternative energy cars with high subsidies become mainstream??
I heard a talking head saying that reinstating the moratoreum would result in $5/gal gasoline. This seemed silly to me, since the moratoreum had just only been lifted, and likely no deepwater wells even started yet...
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Old 07-28-2010, 07:38 AM   #67
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So... did anyone take the plunge and invest in BP? Either with stock or options...
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Old 07-28-2010, 01:59 PM   #68
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So... did anyone take the plunge and invest in BP? Either with stock or options...
I was all talk and no action. BP is about $38 today. I guess the shareholders liked it that Tony Hayward was replaced.

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Old 07-28-2010, 02:58 PM   #69
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So... did anyone take the plunge and invest in BP? Either with stock or options...
Yes to both. I think I posted it here somewhere, but I'll re-iterate/update. BTC = Buy to Close; STO = Sell to Open.

I bought BP too soon, $37.83 on 6/4. Sold calls June 40's @ $1.35, bought them back @ $.15 to roll them out to JULY 38's @ $1.65 as the stock dropped (I'd be left with a profit if assigned). Rolled out and down again for AUG; BTC the July 38s @ 0.10 and STO AUG 36s for 0.94.

So ignoring comms for now, that takes my effective cost basis down to $34.14, so if I get called out at 36, I'll make a nice profit for the time frame (5% for 2-3 months), but not a killing. If it's near 36 at expiry and the premiums are still high, I may roll out again.

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Old 07-28-2010, 03:40 PM   #70
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I bought in at $32/share, then again at $29/share, then again at $34/share. Currently at ~$38/share. Could be choppy for the next few months but it all blows over eventually. Their revenue was still up over last year and the price per barrel of oil was up ~$20/barrel over the same period last year. They should also start paying dividends again next year.

Also bought in on RIG at $45/share and ATP at $9/share.
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Old 07-28-2010, 03:53 PM   #71
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So... did anyone take the plunge and invest in BP? Either with stock or options...

Back in May when BP was trading in the high 40s, I wrote a long term put on BP for $35 a share that expires in Jan of 2011. I figured by that time most of the uncertainty regarding the spill would be resolved. I initially looked at the web estimate for the clean up cost and figured in the 10 billion range, I doubled it to $20 billion. Of course this turned out to be widely optimistic with them taking a $32 billion charge this quarter and some estimate calling for it to double.

Still before the oil spill BP had a market cap of $210 billion at $35 strike price it will be 110 billion so Mr. Market has punished BP for an amount well in excess of the spill cost. On the other hand, I in hindsight I wrote the puts much too cheaply.
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