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Old 05-25-2010, 08:19 AM   #181
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So, a guy falls out of a twentieth floor window. He's panicked, but as he passes the tenth floor he cheers up. "Well, this hasn't been so bad --I'm halfway down and I haven't felt a thing."
So how long do you have to be wrong before you'll stop projecting that you'll be right at some point in the future (all the while ignoring the real costs of your preferred policy alternative)?

Going on two years now. Is three enough? Or four?

Just curious when we can finally settle this.
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Old 05-25-2010, 09:03 AM   #182
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Let's do an experiment.... where do YOU think gold prices will be in one year... we will come back and take a look at how good you did....
I have expressed many opinions since joining this forum... just do a search on "ultimo."

Where will gold be in one year? Only a fool predicts. I bought gold in 2001. I've had years where it went up, and years where it went down. One year doesn't matter... five or 10 or 15 do matter. Across that time span I would say that gold (and silver) will outperform equities.

That's all that matters to me. That's why I question the FIRE model.
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Old 05-25-2010, 09:08 AM   #183
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But the accompanying conspiracy theories about the Federal Reserve Board and the Supreme Court, and arguments about the long-settled constitutionality of paper money, add nothing and detract much from what are otherwise legitimately arguable positions.
I agree with you. Gold investment doesn't require conspiracy theories.

I have to admit, though, that what caught my attention about gold in 2001 was a conspiracy theory that was so intriguing it motivated me to do some research on, what at that time, a discounted investment.

I never accepted the conspiracy views, but I'm so grateful they got my attention.

Open-mindedness and curiosity are good things!
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Old 05-25-2010, 11:18 AM   #184
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So how long do you have to be wrong before you'll stop projecting that you'll be right at some point in the future (all the while ignoring the real costs of your preferred policy alternative)?

Going on two years now. Is three enough? Or four?

Just curious when we can finally settle this.
What was I "wrong" about?

I think all I've said that you object to is:
- The government's policy of huge deficit spending increases the likelihood that serious inflation will ensue. It's not a certainty, it's not unavoidable, but using inflation to pay off our debts with inflated dollars will likely be more attractive than the alternatives and has certainly been done in the past. Do you want to take the opposite side of this argument? ("Huge government deficit spending decreases the likelihood of high inflation"?)
-Government policies to bail out private industries increases the perceived downside of private risktaking ("The government bailed us out before and we're even bigger now, with more companies/industries at risk if our business model fails. Of course the government will bail us out."). This past government intervention increases the chances of a recurrence.

As a mark on the wall, I'd say we'll know in ten years how much damage was caused by the government activity.

I wonder how many items we could find in the Greek press from 5-10 years ago indicating that deficit spending was not a big deal (due to some perceived "emergency" and the need to stimulate the economy, or make needed "investments"), decrying the few voices in the EU who called the Greeks on their accounting shenanigans, and praising the Greek government's enlightened industrial policies and social welfare programs that were ushering in an era of public happiness and fairness that once-and-for-all put an end to the ideas of Adam Smith. Now things look not so good. But, as they passed the tenth floor, everything was great.
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Old 05-25-2010, 11:26 AM   #185
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Just curious when we can finally settle this.
2012?
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Old 05-26-2010, 11:03 AM   #186
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I think that from here, I would take equities over gold for the next ten years.

In fact, I think I would take cash over gold for the next ten years, assuming that my cash is allowed to earn whatever prevaling short term rates are over those ten years (currently only about 1%, but probably higher down the road if inflation picks up).

Currently, 1 oz of gold is right around $1200. That buys about 11 shares of SPY. It buys about 1000 double cheeseburgers at the Plymouth MN McDonald's. It buys just over 17 barrels of oil.

I think an oz of gold is likely to buy less of all of them in ten years.

Gold's nominal value has quadrupled over the past ten years. While there has been some inflation, things are nowhere near four times as expensive as they were ten years ago. That massive increase in gold's buying power is likely to unwind as people get less fearful.

Gold is a store of value, not an investment. I would expect that over the long haul, gold will maintain its purchasing power on average. If you buy gold when its purchasing power is lower than normal (2000), you will do pretty well. If you buy it when its purchasing power is higher than normal (1980, now), I would expect you to do badly over the long haul.

Time will tell.

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Originally Posted by ultimo View Post
I have expressed many opinions since joining this forum... just do a search on "ultimo."

Where will gold be in one year? Only a fool predicts. I bought gold in 2001. I've had years where it went up, and years where it went down. One year doesn't matter... five or 10 or 15 do matter. Across that time span I would say that gold (and silver) will outperform equities.

That's all that matters to me. That's why I question the FIRE model.
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Old 05-26-2010, 02:18 PM   #187
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. . . and those whose eyes are kept tightly sealed against the present as it unfolds . . .

TARP Repayments
(including warrants sold)
US Hires Adviser for GM IPO
US to Sell Citigroup equity

etc, etc . . .
And to those who ignorance at every opportunity...........
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Old 05-27-2010, 06:50 AM   #188
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And to those who ignorance at every opportunity...........
Not only is this the quality of rejoinder I've come to expect, it's fitting that in an eight word post calling someone else ignorant you misuse a noun as a verb. Well done.
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Old 05-27-2010, 09:47 AM   #189
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Looks like there are technical issues in delivering some messages.
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Old 05-27-2010, 10:42 AM   #190
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Not only is this the quality of rejoinder I've come to expect, it's fitting that in an eight word post calling someone else ignorant you misuse a noun as a verb. Well done.
When all this "dicsussion started", you claimed to work in the credit industry at some Wall Street firm. I suppose on the Internet anyone can become anyone they want, but it is getting old. A blind allegiance to govt intervention in "fixing" every economic problem, along with a blatant disbelief of basic economic principles has not helped your cause.........
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Old 05-27-2010, 10:51 AM   #191
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And to those who ignorance at every opportunity...........
This looks like a fine opportunity for some of you to use the ignore feature.
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Old 05-27-2010, 12:08 PM   #192
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This looks like a fine opportunity for some of you to use the ignore feature.
...ignorance is bliss?
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Old 05-27-2010, 12:14 PM   #193
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...ignorance is bliss?
Forget about gold, I'm going to invest in ignore feature futures. OMG, where is the market today? Gotta check.
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Old 05-27-2010, 12:15 PM   #194
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Perhaps Andy Griffith could settle this once and for all

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Old 05-27-2010, 12:47 PM   #195
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Perhaps Andy Griffith could settle this once and for all

Impressive bit of moderation...
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Old 05-27-2010, 12:53 PM   #196
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Impressive bit of moderation...
Struck me that while they had a well established detente in place they are now each convinced the other attempted to cheat and ambush them. Which means a killin' is in order.

But what a gentle show that was...
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Old 05-27-2010, 01:14 PM   #197
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I've seen that episode on TVLand--I think there's a Romeo and Juliet subplot between the young'uns. Funny 'cause I was thinking some of the disagreement on this thread is just like in the movies when a guy and gal argue and just get so mad and then fall into each other's arms just hopelessly in love....
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Old 05-27-2010, 01:17 PM   #198
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I've seen that episode on TVLand--I think there's a Romeo and Juliet subplot between the young'uns. Funny 'cause I was thinking some of the disagreement on this thread is just like in the movies when a guy and gal argue and just get so mad and then fall into each other's arms just hopelessly in love....
And they exchange gold rings?
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Old 05-27-2010, 01:27 PM   #199
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I've seen that episode on TVLand--I think there's a Romeo and Juliet subplot between the young'uns. Funny 'cause I was thinking some of the disagreement on this thread is just like in the movies when a guy and gal argue and just get so mad and then fall into each other's arms just hopelessly in love....
The gold standard of happiness?
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Old 05-27-2010, 01:28 PM   #200
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Struck me that while they had a well established detente in place they are now each convinced the other attempted to cheat and ambush them. Which means a killin' is in order.
...or 87 more years of detente.
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