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Old 05-16-2010, 04:22 PM   #61
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http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images...ears_feb08.jpg

this chart shows gold versus dow. it shows how many ounces of gold to buy the dow. it's a loooong term chart. there are distinct cycles where each outperform.

in year 2000 it took 50 ounces of gold. now it takes 8. gold has KILLED stocks for a decade.

imo we are headed to 4 ish ounces of gold to buy the dow - look at where the previous cycles bottomed.

at what price for each? who knows..
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Old 05-16-2010, 04:30 PM   #62
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let me translate -- money moving
Ha ha. Very funny. You mean like in the back of armored cars?

Or maybe it's some obscure reference to general consumer economic activity.


EDITED to add: Sorry for the snippy response. I do not understand your term or the sentence fragment that contains it. Answering with another sentence fragment and simply substituting the word "moving" for the word "velocity" was not enlightening. I'm actually making an effort here to try to understand your points despite the rather difficult presentation. Apparently my patience was wearing thinner than I thought.
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Old 05-16-2010, 04:32 PM   #63
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That's an interesting chart. If I had any kind of asset allocation for gold and stocks, I would have to conclude that now is the time to balance out of gold and into stocks. Or are you saying gold is different and should be played for unprecedented momentum?
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Old 05-16-2010, 05:06 PM   #64
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http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images...ears_feb08.jpg

this chart shows gold versus dow. it shows how many ounces of gold to buy the dow. it's a loooong term chart. there are distinct cycles where each outperform.

in year 2000 it took 50 ounces of gold. now it takes 8. gold has KILLED stocks for a decade.

imo we are headed to 4 ish ounces of gold to buy the dow - look at where the previous cycles bottomed.

at what price for each? who knows..
What I see is an almost continuous 200 year decline in the relative value of gold.

Why? As HaHa suggested, the "utility" value of gold decreased.

IMHO, The demand for gold is primarily based on fear not on any intrinsic value.

What I also see is that the only time that the ratio was below the 75% confidence limit trend line for a long time period was during the stagflation of the 70s.

I get a value of 8.6 (=10,620/1227) for the current ratio. That is below the current 75% confidence limit of about 10. Thus you are making a bet that the ratio will decline further when it has only been below that limit for about 10% of the last 200 years!

Seems to me that what this chart tells me is that buying gold is like betting against the house. You may get lucky and time it right but in the long term it is a bad deal.

With regard to the timing, I admit that this may well be a good time to buy because of all the stimulus money but that remains to be seen. Like many on this forum I have a modest exposure to commodities and think that is quite adequate.
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Old 05-16-2010, 05:21 PM   #65
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i've been lurking. i liked what i saw, so i joined. seemed to be a good group -
the reception isn't what i expected.
i see high inflation coming - what's wrong with raising the warning flag?
economics is my thing -- i am looking foward to exchanging ideas/info with all of you.
We are a good group, thank you!

Most "new posters" who make the transition to "valued members" start with an introductory post and choose a topic that relates to, um, ER. They tend to talk a bit about their own ER plans or their portfolio's asset allocations and then they ask a lot of questions.

Other posters jump right in. Some of them are posters who've been previously banned and are trying again under new IDs, but the moderators have pretty good tools for sniffing out those miscreants.

Other jump-right-in posters tend to be more interested in spamming their website or pushing up the trading volume of an asset like small-cap stocks or, um, precious metals.

A third category of jump-right-in posters have their own agenda. They tend to tell us how it is while resorting to opinionated diatribes, admonishments, and even attacks. They're interested in what others have to say only to the extent that it gives them a new reason to pound that one key on their piano. A few especially popular topics among this demographic are precious metals, inflation, government, and politics.

Within their first few posts, all three categories of those posters tell us that they don't feel welcome... and eventually they huff off. Or the moderators help them find the exit.

We see this behavior a lot, and the long-term members have seen quite a bit of it. So while you may feel that your reception isn't particularly warm, perhaps it's because most of the other posters are waiting to see whether you're going to make the transition or whether you're going to fall into one of the other groups. A few of the posters feel they already have enough data to make a decision.

And one or two of the posters may feel as if they're handing you the rope as fast as you can wrap it around your neck...

Just so you know.
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Old 05-16-2010, 05:28 PM   #66
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Old 05-16-2010, 05:43 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by growing_older View Post
Ha ha. Very funny. You mean like in the back of armored cars?

Or maybe it's some obscure reference to general consumer economic activity.


EDITED to add: Sorry for the snippy response. I do not understand your term or the sentence fragment that contains it. Answering with another sentence fragment and simply substituting the word "moving" for the word "velocity" was not enlightening. I'm actually making an effort here to try to understand your points despite the rather difficult presentation. Apparently my patience was wearing thinner than I thought.
no offense taken - or intended

velocity defined: Velocity of money - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Old 05-16-2010, 05:47 PM   #68
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That's an interesting chart. If I had any kind of asset allocation for gold and stocks, I would have to conclude that now is the time to balance out of gold and into stocks. Or are you saying gold is different and should be played for unprecedented momentum?
you are right, the easy money has been made.

i focus on the last two peaks and valleys. notice it took only a few ounces of gold to buy the dow. this third run has dropped it from 50 to 8. i plan on shifting assets at 4 ish ounces.

will it be dow 8000 gold 2000? dow 20,000 gold 5000? dunno
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Old 05-16-2010, 05:49 PM   #69
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Maybe the part you should have highlighted is "No State shall . . . "

But then again, you'd think the title of Article 1, Section 10 "Powers Prohibited of States" should have been a give away.

Meanwhile, Article 1, Section 8 titled Powers of Congress gives Congress the power . . . This makes no mention of gold. And further, specifically gives Congress the ability to "regulate the Value" of money.
Indeed. Congress could declare that tinfoil is money, in which case our new friend could make a mint off his headgear.
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Old 05-16-2010, 06:06 PM   #70
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We are a good group, thank you!

Most "new posters" who make the transition to "valued members" start with an introductory post and choose a topic that relates to, um, ER. They tend to talk a bit about their own ER plans or their portfolio's asset allocations and then they ask a lot of questions.

Other posters jump right in. Some of them are posters who've been previously banned and are trying again under new IDs, but the moderators have pretty good tools for sniffing out those miscreants.

Other jump-right-in posters tend to be more interested in spamming their website or pushing up the trading volume of an asset like small-cap stocks or, um, precious metals.

A third category of jump-right-in posters have their own agenda. They tend to tell us how it is while resorting to opinionated diatribes, admonishments, and even attacks. They're interested in what others have to say only to the extent that it gives them a new reason to pound that one key on their piano. A few especially popular topics among this demographic are precious metals, inflation, government, and politics.

Within their first few posts, all three categories of those posters tell us that they don't feel welcome... and eventually they huff off. Or the moderators help them find the exit.

We see this behavior a lot, and the long-term members have seen quite a bit of it. So while you may feel that your reception isn't particularly warm, perhaps it's because most of the other posters are waiting to see whether you're going to make the transition or whether you're going to fall into one of the other groups. A few of the posters feel they already have enough data to make a decision.

And one or two of the posters may feel as if they're handing you the rope as fast as you can wrap it around your neck...

Just so you know.
thanks for the comprehensive explanation. i really appreciate it.

you might add a fourth category - as i dont fit the others. i am an experienced message board vet - so i hit the ground running without the formalities.

i think this community has it nailed down. the only thing i saw that was lacking was the discussion of the best performing asset of the last decade - precious metals.

trying to bring value to the board i started with the subject that i saw was lacking. it's an important issue to me personally. the steady deterioration of the federal reserve note is imo criminal.

the inflation thread had some references to pm. so it hasn't been totally ingnored. my belief is that it deserved its own thread. it worked as planned - the thread got lots of replies and active discussions. i feel like i've done my job.

now i can move on to learning about 72t, discussing income generating assets, rental real estate, etc.

again, thanks for the detailed explanation
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Old 05-16-2010, 06:07 PM   #71
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Indeed. Congress could declare that tinfoil is money, in which case our new friend could make a mint off his headgear.
i know that's right! and my cat's headgear too
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Old 05-16-2010, 06:10 PM   #72
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now i can move on...
Hope springs eternal...
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Old 05-16-2010, 06:13 PM   #73
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Hope springs eternal...
be quick, but dont rush
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Old 05-16-2010, 06:33 PM   #74
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and my cat's headgear too
This thread is useless without pictures
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Old 05-16-2010, 06:41 PM   #75
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This thread is useless without pictures
ha ha! and the kicker, that looks exactly like my cat. i think i'll make that my wallpaper for tonight
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Old 05-16-2010, 06:53 PM   #76
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i am an experienced message board vet - so i hit the ground running without the formalities.
And this extensive familiarity with the genre led you to that course of action? Hmmmmm.

Quote:
Originally Posted by endthefed View Post
i think this community has it nailed down. the only thing i saw that was lacking was the discussion of the best performing asset of the last decade - precious metals.
Your knowledge of how this environment is structured is impressive. How we could have missed this marvelous facet of ER, I cannot imagine. Thank you for "straightening us out."

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it's an important issue to me personally.
I noticed.

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Originally Posted by endthefed View Post
i feel like i've done my job.
There are others, of course, who share that opinion... most of them have already spoken.

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Originally Posted by endthefed View Post
now i can move on to learning about 72t, discussing income generating assets, rental real estate, etc.
Please do.
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Old 05-16-2010, 08:22 PM   #77
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you might add a fourth category - as i dont fit the others. i am an experienced message board vet - so i hit the ground running without the formalities.
Adolph? Is that you?

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Old 05-16-2010, 08:32 PM   #78
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Adolph? Is that you?
Eddie agrees. He's rarely wrong.
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Old 05-16-2010, 08:46 PM   #79
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Hurry, watch the video before they disable comments.
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Old 05-16-2010, 10:44 PM   #80
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Some folks sign up on the forum and introduce themselves here following the suggestions found here.

Others do the online version of walking into a crowded room and start shouting...
Gold? I usually just point at some other person and say that dude farted.

Nords, I'm disappointed that you forgot to mention paying off a mortgage vs. investing.
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