where are the gold threads?

[audreyh1]

I don't do momentum, but there are some pretty heavy hitters in this trade- like John Paulson.

Of course, what does he know compared to ER.org? Is he ER'd?

Speaks for itself.

Ha

You mean John Paulson the hedge fund manager who "recommended" the assets that went into the Goldman Sachs CDOs and then shorted them?

Well, he was right then....

Audrey

 

[Gone4Good]

You mean John Paulson the hedge fund manager who "recommended" the assets that went into the Goldman Sachs CDOs and then shorted them?

Well, he was right then....

Audrey

I have no idea whether he is actually "in the trade" or not, but I'm highly leery of taking investment advice from someone who makes a living ripping other people's faces off financially.

It's like asking the 3 Card Monte dealer . . . "The Queen's under this one, isn't it?"

 

[haha]

You mean John Paulson the hedge fund manager who "recommended" the assets that went into the Goldman Sachs CDOs and then shorted them?

Well, he was right then....

Audrey

He's been right plenty of other times too.

My point, if I have one, is that whatever is going to learned about financial matters from this board has been learned long ago by most of us. It's kind of a one note song. I believe that the core competncy of this board is not investing, but rather frugality and savings.

At the same time, I agree that Mr Golden Threads was certainly unappealing with his delivery.

Ha

 

[mews]

I work in an Indian / Pakistani / Bangladeshi neighborhood in NYC and walk by wonderful jewelry stores selling bee-yoo-ti-ful gold jewelry - the fancy "wedding jewelry" .

Gentlemen, this could be the best investment of your time and money. The rewards would be beyond the ability to put on your spreadsheet - if you still have the energy :::Heh:::



ta,
mews

 

[RonBoyd]

I believe that the core competency of this board is not investing, but rather frugality and savings

Very perceptive... and well put.

 

[Gone4Good]

I believe that the core competncy of this board is not investing, but rather frugality and savings.

Good thing too because "Make a killing in the market and retire early" doesn't sound like much of a plan . . . it sounds like an infomercial. "Act now, and we'll send you this bonus seminar 'Increase your safe withdrawal rate by earning excess returns", absolutely Free!"

 

[Gone4Good]

Consumer Prices in US Unexpectedly Decline

Remind me again why I'm supposed to be worried about inflation?

The cost of living in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped in April for the first time in more than a year, signaling the world’s largest economy is recovering without causing prices to flare. The 0.1 percent fall in the consumer price index was the first decrease since March 2009, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. Excluding food and fuel, the so-called core rate was unchanged, capping the smallest 12- month gain in four decades.

 

[REWahoo]

Consumer Prices in US Unexpectedly Decline

Remind me again why I'm supposed to be worried about inflation?

Someone will be along shortly to explain it's a trick by the CPI conspiracy to catch us off guard when the Fed suddenly bumps interest rates...

 

[kyounge1956]

Consumer Prices in US Unexpectedly Decline

The cost of living in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped in April for the first time in more than a year, signaling the world’s largest economy is recovering without causing prices to flare. The 0.1 percent fall in the consumer price index was the first decrease since March 2009, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. Excluding food and fuel, the so-called core rate was unchanged, capping the smallest 12- month gain in four decades.

(bold added)

Remind me again why I'm supposed to be worried about inflation?

Because the actual cost of living doesn't exclude food and fuel?

 

[FIREd]

Well, this forum is the "lumpen slums of cyberspace" after all, so I have no idea why anyone would want to come here for serious investment advice... An Ameriprise financial advisor is undoubtedly a better choice.

But clearly some people believe that they are too good for the lumpen slums, so I can only encourage them to move on to less slummy pastures.

 

[Gone4Good]

Because the actual cost of living doesn't exclude food and fuel?

The monthly decline is for the entire index (including food and fuel). Over the past 12 months CPI rose 2.2%, including food and fuel. That compares with a 30 yr average of 3.4%. Moreover, the trend is downward . . . not upward. (I have to update this chart for the past few months, but the downward trend persists) . . .

So again, remind me why I need to be extremely concerned about inflation?

 

[NW-Bound]

I myself am not "extremely" concerned about inflation at this point. But I like to see a "little bit" of it, just as some signs that the recovery is gaining some traction, and to put the deflation scare to rest.

 

[Gone4Good]

and to put the deflation scare to rest.

That's the concern. The money spigots are wide open and inflation continues to decelerate.

Just imagine what things would look like if the hard money crowd had its way. Not pretty.

 

[Rustward]

<snip> (I have to update this chart for the past few months, but the downward trend persists) . . . <snip>

Might want to check the title, also.

 

[NW-Bound]

The money spigots are wide open...

But how much of it got "trickled down" to the Joe Blows, and how much got stuck with the bankers?

 

[Gone4Good]

Might want to check the title, also.

The title is perhaps not precise . . . it's annual inflation that is being measured. Year over year change in prices. You get the point.

 

[Gone4Good]

But how much of it got "trickled down" to the Joe Blows, and how much got stuck with the bankers?

Well that is just it. The mechanism through which the Fed creates money has been gummed up.

 

[ziggy29]

So again, remind me why I need to be extremely concerned about inflation?

I would argue that it's because most of the downward pressure on the CPI is coming from big-ticket discretionary items which are under pressure due to weaker demand in a weak economy. That doesn't help anyone who is struggling to get by and purchases only the essentials (food, energy, health care, utilities, insurance and taxes) which are still rising in price (and are always in demand).

So when wage and salary increases rise by the CPI (if you are VERY lucky) but you're only buying the essentials that are rising faster than the CPI, you are losing ground. This is why, IMO, so many people view the CPI with such suspicion and feel like it's "rigged." I don't know that it's rigged per se, but I am pretty sure it's not indicative of the price of life's essentials.

 

[Gone4Good]

I would argue that it's because most of the downward pressure on the CPI is coming from big-ticket discretionary items which are under pressure due to weaker demand in a weak economy.

And I would argue that people's perceptions aren't always accurate. There is a tendency to remember and overstate price increases and forget and discount price declines.

According to the April CPI release . . . .

Food rose 0.5% over the last 12 months
Household Fuels & Utilities up 2.2%
Clothing down 0.9%
Rent down 0.8%
Homeowner's insurance up 3.5%

The big gainer . . . transportation. Up 12.8% because of higher oil prices and higher automobile prices.

 

[IndependentlyPoor]

The big gainer . . . transportation. Up 12.8% because of higher oil prices and higher automobile prices.

Yeeow!

 

[ziggy29]

According to the April CPI release . . . .

Food rose 0.5% over the last 12 months
Household Fuels & Utilities up 2.2%
Clothing down 0.9%
Rent down 0.8%
Homeowner's insurance up 3.5%

Which means if you rent and buy a lot of clothes, your personal inflation will be a lot lower. That certainly ain't me.

Food inflation is deceptive and usually understated because of "substitution" methods used in calculating food inflation (among other things). If an apple becomes too expensive due to inflation, they'll substitute a cheaper orange and claim food prices aren't higher.

And where's health care/insurance in your list?

The big gainer . . . transportation. Up 12.8% because of higher oil prices and higher automobile prices.

You mean dealers inflated car prices during Cash for Clunkers? I'm SHOCKED!

 

[Alan]

The big gainer . . . transportation. Up 12.8% because of higher oil prices and higher automobile prices.

phew!! ER'ed and sold our 2nd car just in time.

 

[Gumby]

I would say the CPI represents almost no person's actual, experienced inflation. It is irrelevant to me that rents went down; I have a fixed mortgage. My electric rates are fixed periodically by the department of public utilities; they don't change monthly or even yearly in most cases. Unless I buy a new car, that change is also irrelevant to me. And I almost never buy clothes in any event. Virtually the only things that have the potential to impact my life immediately are food and fuel.

 

[W2R]

My Wii broke (from overuse, no doubt) so I replaced it last week. The new one only cost 51% of the original cost back in June 2008.

I bought a Kindle in March for less than 65% of the price for the same Kindle last year.

Yesterday I saw a perfectly good Dell laptop on sale for $399 on their website, and that was $145 off. Tempting, so tempting!

Everything may not be cheaper, but at least some things are.

 

[Gone4Good]

Longest-dated maturities favored as inflation falls

Stupid markets. Don't they know CPI is rigged?