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Old 05-18-2010, 01:34 PM   #101
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I don't do momentum, but there are some pretty heavy hitters in this trade- like John Paulson.

Of course, what does he know compared to ER.org? Is he ER'd?

Speaks for itself.

Ha
You mean John Paulson the hedge fund manager who "recommended" the assets that went into the Goldman Sachs CDOs and then shorted them?

Well, he was right then....

Audrey
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Old 05-18-2010, 01:39 PM   #102
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You mean John Paulson the hedge fund manager who "recommended" the assets that went into the Goldman Sachs CDOs and then shorted them?

Well, he was right then....

Audrey
I have no idea whether he is actually "in the trade" or not, but I'm highly leery of taking investment advice from someone who makes a living ripping other people's faces off financially.

It's like asking the 3 Card Monte dealer . . . "The Queen's under this one, isn't it?"
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Old 05-18-2010, 06:02 PM   #103
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You mean John Paulson the hedge fund manager who "recommended" the assets that went into the Goldman Sachs CDOs and then shorted them?

Well, he was right then....

Audrey
He's been right plenty of other times too.

My point, if I have one, is that whatever is going to learned about financial matters from this board has been learned long ago by most of us. It's kind of a one note song. I believe that the core competncy of this board is not investing, but rather frugality and savings.

At the same time, I agree that Mr Golden Threads was certainly unappealing with his delivery.

Ha
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Old 05-18-2010, 06:32 PM   #104
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I work in an Indian / Pakistani / Bangladeshi neighborhood in NYC and walk by wonderful jewelry stores selling bee-yoo-ti-ful gold jewelry - the fancy "wedding jewelry" .

Gentlemen, this could be the best investment of your time and money. The rewards would be beyond the ability to put on your spreadsheet - if you still have the energy :::Heh:::



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Old 05-18-2010, 07:12 PM   #105
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I believe that the core competency of this board is not investing, but rather frugality and savings
Very perceptive... and well put.
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Old 05-19-2010, 06:23 AM   #106
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I believe that the core competncy of this board is not investing, but rather frugality and savings.
Good thing too because "Make a killing in the market and retire early" doesn't sound like much of a plan . . . it sounds like an infomercial. "Act now, and we'll send you this bonus seminar 'Increase your safe withdrawal rate by earning excess returns", absolutely Free!"
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Old 05-19-2010, 08:23 AM   #107
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Consumer Prices in US Unexpectedly Decline

Remind me again why I'm supposed to be worried about inflation?

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The cost of living in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped in April for the first time in more than a year, signaling the world’s largest economy is recovering without causing prices to flare. The 0.1 percent fall in the consumer price index was the first decrease since March 2009, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. Excluding food and fuel, the so-called core rate was unchanged, capping the smallest 12- month gain in four decades.
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Old 05-19-2010, 08:33 AM   #108
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Consumer Prices in US Unexpectedly Decline

Remind me again why I'm supposed to be worried about inflation?
Someone will be along shortly to explain it's a trick by the CPI conspiracy to catch us off guard when the Fed suddenly bumps interest rates...
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Old 05-19-2010, 09:57 AM   #109
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Consumer Prices in US Unexpectedly Decline
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The cost of living in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped in April for the first time in more than a year, signaling the world’s largest economy is recovering without causing prices to flare. The 0.1 percent fall in the consumer price index was the first decrease since March 2009, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. Excluding food and fuel, the so-called core rate was unchanged, capping the smallest 12- month gain in four decades.
(bold added)

Remind me again why I'm supposed to be worried about inflation?
Because the actual cost of living doesn't exclude food and fuel?
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Old 05-19-2010, 11:27 AM   #110
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Well, this forum is the "lumpen slums of cyberspace" after all, so I have no idea why anyone would want to come here for serious investment advice... An Ameriprise financial advisor is undoubtedly a better choice.

But clearly some people believe that they are too good for the lumpen slums, so I can only encourage them to move on to less slummy pastures.
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Old 05-19-2010, 01:47 PM   #111
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Because the actual cost of living doesn't exclude food and fuel?
The monthly decline is for the entire index (including food and fuel). Over the past 12 months CPI rose 2.2%, including food and fuel. That compares with a 30 yr average of 3.4%. Moreover, the trend is downward . . . not upward. (I have to update this chart for the past few months, but the downward trend persists) . . .



So again, remind me why I need to be extremely concerned about inflation?
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Old 05-19-2010, 01:50 PM   #112
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I myself am not "extremely" concerned about inflation at this point. But I like to see a "little bit" of it, just as some signs that the recovery is gaining some traction, and to put the deflation scare to rest.
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Old 05-19-2010, 03:11 PM   #113
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and to put the deflation scare to rest.
That's the concern. The money spigots are wide open and inflation continues to decelerate.

Just imagine what things would look like if the hard money crowd had its way. Not pretty.
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Old 05-19-2010, 03:36 PM   #114
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<snip> (I have to update this chart for the past few months, but the downward trend persists) . . . <snip>
Might want to check the title, also.
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Old 05-19-2010, 03:45 PM   #115
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The money spigots are wide open...
But how much of it got "trickled down" to the Joe Blows, and how much got stuck with the bankers?
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Old 05-19-2010, 03:50 PM   #116
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Might want to check the title, also.
The title is perhaps not precise . . . it's annual inflation that is being measured. Year over year change in prices. You get the point.
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Old 05-19-2010, 03:53 PM   #117
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But how much of it got "trickled down" to the Joe Blows, and how much got stuck with the bankers?
Well that is just it. The mechanism through which the Fed creates money has been gummed up.
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Old 05-19-2010, 03:56 PM   #118
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So again, remind me why I need to be extremely concerned about inflation?
I would argue that it's because most of the downward pressure on the CPI is coming from big-ticket discretionary items which are under pressure due to weaker demand in a weak economy. That doesn't help anyone who is struggling to get by and purchases only the essentials (food, energy, health care, utilities, insurance and taxes) which are still rising in price (and are always in demand).

So when wage and salary increases rise by the CPI (if you are VERY lucky) but you're only buying the essentials that are rising faster than the CPI, you are losing ground. This is why, IMO, so many people view the CPI with such suspicion and feel like it's "rigged." I don't know that it's rigged per se, but I am pretty sure it's not indicative of the price of life's essentials.
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Old 05-19-2010, 04:14 PM   #119
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I would argue that it's because most of the downward pressure on the CPI is coming from big-ticket discretionary items which are under pressure due to weaker demand in a weak economy.
And I would argue that people's perceptions aren't always accurate. There is a tendency to remember and overstate price increases and forget and discount price declines.

According to the April CPI release . . . .

Food rose 0.5% over the last 12 months
Household Fuels & Utilities up 2.2%
Clothing down 0.9%
Rent down 0.8%
Homeowner's insurance up 3.5%

The big gainer . . . transportation. Up 12.8% because of higher oil prices and higher automobile prices.
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Old 05-19-2010, 04:20 PM   #120
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The big gainer . . . transportation. Up 12.8% because of higher oil prices and higher automobile prices.
Yeeow!
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