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05-18-2010, 12:34 PM
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#101
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 37,931
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
I don't do momentum, but there are some pretty heavy hitters in this trade- like John Paulson.
Of course, what does he know compared to ER.org? Is he ER'd?
Speaks for itself.
Ha
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You mean John Paulson the hedge fund manager who "recommended" the assets that went into the Goldman Sachs CDOs and then shorted them?
Well, he was right then....
Audrey
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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05-18-2010, 12:39 PM
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#102
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
You mean John Paulson the hedge fund manager who "recommended" the assets that went into the Goldman Sachs CDOs and then shorted them?
Well, he was right then....
Audrey
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I have no idea whether he is actually "in the trade" or not, but I'm highly leery of taking investment advice from someone who makes a living ripping other people's faces off financially.
It's like asking the 3 Card Monte dealer . . . "The Queen's under this one, isn't it?"
__________________
Retired early, traveling perpetually.
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05-18-2010, 05:02 PM
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#103
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
You mean John Paulson the hedge fund manager who "recommended" the assets that went into the Goldman Sachs CDOs and then shorted them?
Well, he was right then....
Audrey
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He's been right plenty of other times too.
My point, if I have one, is that whatever is going to learned about financial matters from this board has been learned long ago by most of us. It's kind of a one note song. I believe that the core competncy of this board is not investing, but rather frugality and savings.
At the same time, I agree that Mr Golden Threads was certainly unappealing with his delivery.
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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05-18-2010, 05:32 PM
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#104
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 479
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I work in an Indian / Pakistani / Bangladeshi neighborhood in NYC and walk by wonderful jewelry stores selling bee-yoo-ti-ful gold jewelry - the fancy "wedding jewelry" .
Gentlemen, this could be the best investment of your time and money. The rewards would be beyond the ability to put on your spreadsheet - if you still have the energy :::Heh:::
ta,
mews
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05-18-2010, 06:12 PM
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#105
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 6,255
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
I believe that the core competency of this board is not investing, but rather frugality and savings
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Very perceptive... and well put.
__________________
"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
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05-19-2010, 05:23 AM
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#106
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
I believe that the core competncy of this board is not investing, but rather frugality and savings.
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Good thing too because "Make a killing in the market and retire early" doesn't sound like much of a plan . . . it sounds like an infomercial. "Act now, and we'll send you this bonus seminar 'Increase your safe withdrawal rate by earning excess returns", absolutely Free!"
__________________
Retired early, traveling perpetually.
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05-19-2010, 07:23 AM
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#107
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
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Consumer Prices in US Unexpectedly Decline
Remind me again why I'm supposed to be worried about inflation?
Quote:
The cost of living in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped in April for the first time in more than a year, signaling the world’s largest economy is recovering without causing prices to flare. The 0.1 percent fall in the consumer price index was the first decrease since March 2009, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. Excluding food and fuel, the so-called core rate was unchanged, capping the smallest 12- month gain in four decades.
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Retired early, traveling perpetually.
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05-19-2010, 07:33 AM
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#108
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,000
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gone4Good
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Someone will be along shortly to explain it's a trick by the CPI conspiracy to catch us off guard when the Fed suddenly bumps interest rates...
__________________
Numbers is hard
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05-19-2010, 08:57 AM
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#109
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 2,171
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gone4Good
Consumer Prices in US Unexpectedly Decline
Quote:
The cost of living in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped in April for the first time in more than a year, signaling the world’s largest economy is recovering without causing prices to flare. The 0.1 percent fall in the consumer price index was the first decrease since March 2009, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. Excluding food and fuel, the so-called core rate was unchanged, capping the smallest 12- month gain in four decades.
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(bold added)
Remind me again why I'm supposed to be worried about inflation?
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Because the actual cost of living doesn't exclude food and fuel?
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05-19-2010, 10:27 AM
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#110
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,890
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Well, this forum is the "lumpen slums of cyberspace" after all, so I have no idea why anyone would want to come here for serious investment advice... An Ameriprise financial advisor is undoubtedly a better choice.
But clearly some people believe that they are too good for the lumpen slums, so I can only encourage them to move on to less slummy pastures.
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05-19-2010, 12:47 PM
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#111
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kyounge1956
Because the actual cost of living doesn't exclude food and fuel?
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The monthly decline is for the entire index (including food and fuel). Over the past 12 months CPI rose 2.2%, including food and fuel. That compares with a 30 yr average of 3.4%. Moreover, the trend is downward . . . not upward. (I have to update this chart for the past few months, but the downward trend persists) . . .
So again, remind me why I need to be extremely concerned about inflation?
__________________
Retired early, traveling perpetually.
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05-19-2010, 12:50 PM
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#112
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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I myself am not "extremely" concerned about inflation at this point. But I like to see a "little bit" of it, just as some signs that the recovery is gaining some traction, and to put the deflation scare to rest.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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05-19-2010, 02:11 PM
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#113
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
and to put the deflation scare to rest.
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That's the concern. The money spigots are wide open and inflation continues to decelerate.
Just imagine what things would look like if the hard money crowd had its way. Not pretty.
__________________
Retired early, traveling perpetually.
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05-19-2010, 02:36 PM
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#114
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 1,684
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gone4Good
<snip> (I have to update this chart for the past few months, but the downward trend persists) . . . <snip>
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Might want to check the title, also.
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05-19-2010, 02:45 PM
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#115
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gone4Good
The money spigots are wide open...
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But how much of it got "trickled down" to the Joe Blows, and how much got stuck with the bankers?
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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05-19-2010, 02:50 PM
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#116
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rustward
Might want to check the title, also.
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The title is perhaps not precise . . . it's annual inflation that is being measured. Year over year change in prices. You get the point.
__________________
Retired early, traveling perpetually.
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05-19-2010, 02:53 PM
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#117
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
But how much of it got "trickled down" to the Joe Blows, and how much got stuck with the bankers?
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Well that is just it. The mechanism through which the Fed creates money has been gummed up.
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Retired early, traveling perpetually.
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05-19-2010, 02:56 PM
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#118
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gone4Good
So again, remind me why I need to be extremely concerned about inflation?
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I would argue that it's because most of the downward pressure on the CPI is coming from big-ticket discretionary items which are under pressure due to weaker demand in a weak economy. That doesn't help anyone who is struggling to get by and purchases only the essentials (food, energy, health care, utilities, insurance and taxes) which are still rising in price (and are always in demand).
So when wage and salary increases rise by the CPI (if you are VERY lucky) but you're only buying the essentials that are rising faster than the CPI, you are losing ground. This is why, IMO, so many people view the CPI with such suspicion and feel like it's "rigged." I don't know that it's rigged per se, but I am pretty sure it's not indicative of the price of life's essentials.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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05-19-2010, 03:14 PM
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#119
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
I would argue that it's because most of the downward pressure on the CPI is coming from big-ticket discretionary items which are under pressure due to weaker demand in a weak economy.
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And I would argue that people's perceptions aren't always accurate. There is a tendency to remember and overstate price increases and forget and discount price declines.
According to the April CPI release . . . .
Food rose 0.5% over the last 12 months
Household Fuels & Utilities up 2.2%
Clothing down 0.9%
Rent down 0.8%
Homeowner's insurance up 3.5%
The big gainer . . . transportation. Up 12.8% because of higher oil prices and higher automobile prices.
__________________
Retired early, traveling perpetually.
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05-19-2010, 03:20 PM
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#120
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Austin
Posts: 1,142
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gone4Good
The big gainer . . . transportation. Up 12.8% because of higher oil prices and higher automobile prices.
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Yeeow!
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Start by admitting
from cradle to tomb
it isn't that long a stay.
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