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Will 2014 be a year to be in emerging market funds?
Old 12-31-2013, 07:47 PM   #1
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Will 2014 be a year to be in emerging market funds?

I did real well in 2013 with US equity funds and biotech ETF, but am wondering if 2014 may be the year for emerging markets with global recovery showing life?

Anyone have favorites in this space?
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Old 12-31-2013, 09:11 PM   #2
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I did real well in 2013 with US equity funds and biotech ETF, but am wondering if 2014 may be the year for emerging markets with global recovery showing life?

Anyone have favorites in this space?

I am wondering the same thing. Just trying to get a read and buy into something early in 2014 preferably in Japan. Hyundai was huge last year.

Any ETF's or nicely diversified EM growth funds


Japan's Nikkei posts crazy 57% rise in 2013 - Dec. 31, 2013
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Old 12-31-2013, 09:48 PM   #3
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I hope it's better than 2013 at least.

For EM I use: WAESX, EEM, DEM, WAEMX, and DGS. None of those are particularly cheap.
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Old 12-31-2013, 11:12 PM   #4
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VWO did pretty horrible in 2013...maybe it will have 30% gains in 2014.
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Old 01-01-2014, 12:44 AM   #5
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I sold a big hunk of an individual stock largely driven by EM to reap some gains. I invested a bunch of the proceeds in SCHE to make sure I had sufficient EM exposure, plus EM is about the only equity class that did not rally this year. For me this is a modest allocation, but time will tell if it is a great choice.
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Old 01-01-2014, 08:48 AM   #6
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Brewer what AA do you set for emerging markets? I have thought previously since my retirement spending is US based my equity exposure should be same. But I see some on here use world markets.
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Old 01-01-2014, 08:58 AM   #7
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Brewer what AA do you set for emerging markets? I have thought previously since my retirement spending is US based my equity exposure should be same. But I see some on here use world markets.
I'm not Brewer and I don't play him on TV, but I like emerging markets for about 5-10% of my overall portfolio.
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Old 01-01-2014, 09:40 AM   #8
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I'm not Brewer and I don't play him on TV, but I like emerging markets for about 5-10% of my overall portfolio.
That sounds about right.
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Old 01-01-2014, 12:06 PM   #9
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EM has not done well in the last 3 years. For the 2 years 2009, 2010, it did very well, so it's pay back time. Reversion to the mean, baby! However, if one looks back 10 years, EM did very well from 2003 to the Great Recession, then crashed hard!

There are many pundits who recently said they would stay with US stocks, and Europe and Japan equities which also did well in 2013. Only a few mentioned EM, as people usually want to stick with and ride higher with the winners. We will see what transpire.

Caveat: I have bought EM throughout 2013, and will not add more. Needless to say, my EM positions helped drag down my portfolio with respect to S&P.
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Old 01-01-2014, 12:15 PM   #10
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We have 12% VTMGX Tax Managed International and 6% VEMAX Emerging Markets, so it's fine with me if emerging markets do well in 2014. But we've owned both for years without changing target allocations.
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Old 01-01-2014, 12:19 PM   #11
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VTMGX is mostly developed country equity. It did well in 2013. VEMAX is true EM, and tracks VWO, a Vanguard ETF, very closely.
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Old 01-01-2014, 12:23 PM   #12
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EM has not done well in the last 3 years. For the 2 years 2009, 2010, it did very well, so it's pay back time. Reversion to the mean, baby!
Tell that to the markets.

Our allocation to EM is 1/4 of equities, about 12.5% of total portfolio. Equal amounts VWO and DGS. I think EM rough times are not behind us, and what I am hearing from my corporate friends is not encouraging. No plans to change allocation.
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Old 01-01-2014, 12:27 PM   #13
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I am going to tough it out too. Would hate to sell out low, just to see it rise. Yes, time will tell if my patience will get rewarded. I am more concerned with what to do with my big wad of 26% cash earning peanuts. Need a big market correction, which still has not come.
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Old 01-02-2014, 01:45 PM   #14
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We always have 10% of port (17% of equities) in EMS. High expected return. High expected volatility.
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Old 01-02-2014, 08:45 PM   #15
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VWO did pretty horrible in 2013...maybe it will have 30% gains in 2014.
Let's hope we get a little sniff next year to make up for this year.
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Old 01-03-2014, 02:39 AM   #16
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I bought emerging market funds twice and sold them last year for tax loss harvesting.

After the 30 days have passed for a wash sale I am looking at putting most of my cash in the IRA into SCHE and maybe some VWO. Total position will be about 5%
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Old 01-03-2014, 08:27 AM   #17
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We have 60% equities and of that 30% international equities, mostly Total International Stock Index, which is in turn about 18% so that is only 3.2% in emerging markets. I still have some rebalancing to do so perhaps I'll add a EM tilt and bring it up a bit.
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Old 01-03-2014, 12:04 PM   #18
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I would be wary of emerging markets in 2014. Several bellwether IT companies reported last quarter that the emerging markets are under stress right now. Many of them may be going into a recession this year.
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Old 01-03-2014, 12:32 PM   #19
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I would be wary of emerging markets in 2014. Several bellwether IT companies reported last quarter that the emerging markets are under stress right now. Many of them may be going into a recession this year.
Exactly the right time to buy EM.
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Old 01-03-2014, 01:19 PM   #20
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Thanks for the heads up. I plan to DCA in over the next few months. Of course this is only to balance my total int'l holdings per the AA of my ISP.
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