Will 2014 be a year to be in emerging market funds?

[Rothman]

I did real well in 2013 with US equity funds and biotech ETF, but am wondering if 2014 may be the year for emerging markets with global recovery showing life?

Anyone have favorites in this space?

 

[kgtest]

I did real well in 2013 with US equity funds and biotech ETF, but am wondering if 2014 may be the year for emerging markets with global recovery showing life?

Anyone have favorites in this space?

I am wondering the same thing. Just trying to get a read and buy into something early in 2014 preferably in Japan. Hyundai was huge last year.

Any ETF's or nicely diversified EM growth funds


Japan's Nikkei posts crazy 57% rise in 2013 - Dec. 31, 2013

 

[Animorph]

I hope it's better than 2013 at least.

For EM I use: WAESX, EEM, DEM, WAEMX, and DGS. None of those are particularly cheap.

 

[Fermion]

VWO did pretty horrible in 2013...maybe it will have 30% gains in 2014.

 

[brewer12345]

I sold a big hunk of an individual stock largely driven by EM to reap some gains. I invested a bunch of the proceeds in SCHE to make sure I had sufficient EM exposure, plus EM is about the only equity class that did not rally this year. For me this is a modest allocation, but time will tell if it is a great choice.

 

[Rothman]

Brewer what AA do you set for emerging markets? I have thought previously since my retirement spending is US based my equity exposure should be same. But I see some on here use world markets.

 

[ziggy29]

Brewer what AA do you set for emerging markets? I have thought previously since my retirement spending is US based my equity exposure should be same. But I see some on here use world markets.

I'm not Brewer and I don't play him on TV, but I like emerging markets for about 5-10% of my overall portfolio.

 

[brewer12345]

I'm not Brewer and I don't play him on TV, but I like emerging markets for about 5-10% of my overall portfolio.

That sounds about right.

 

[NW-Bound]

EM has not done well in the last 3 years. For the 2 years 2009, 2010, it did very well, so it's pay back time. Reversion to the mean, baby! However, if one looks back 10 years, EM did very well from 2003 to the Great Recession, then crashed hard!

There are many pundits who recently said they would stay with US stocks, and Europe and Japan equities which also did well in 2013. Only a few mentioned EM, as people usually want to stick with and ride higher with the winners. We will see what transpire.

Caveat: I have bought EM throughout 2013, and will not add more. Needless to say, my EM positions helped drag down my portfolio with respect to S&P.

 

[Midpack]

We have 12% VTMGX Tax Managed International and 6% VEMAX Emerging Markets, so it's fine with me if emerging markets do well in 2014. But we've owned both for years without changing target allocations.

 

[NW-Bound]

VTMGX is mostly developed country equity. It did well in 2013. VEMAX is true EM, and tracks VWO, a Vanguard ETF, very closely.

 

[MichaelB]

EM has not done well in the last 3 years. For the 2 years 2009, 2010, it did very well, so it's pay back time. Reversion to the mean, baby!

Tell that to the markets.

Our allocation to EM is 1/4 of equities, about 12.5% of total portfolio. Equal amounts VWO and DGS. I think EM rough times are not behind us, and what I am hearing from my corporate friends is not encouraging. No plans to change allocation.

 

[NW-Bound]

I am going to tough it out too. Would hate to sell out low, just to see it rise. Yes, time will tell if my patience will get rewarded. I am more concerned with what to do with my big wad of 26% cash earning peanuts. Need a big market correction, which still has not come.

 

[galeno]

We always have 10% of port (17% of equities) in EMS. High expected return. High expected volatility.

 

[sengsational]

VWO did pretty horrible in 2013...maybe it will have 30% gains in 2014.

Let's hope we get a little sniff next year to make up for this year.

 

[clifp]

I bought emerging market funds twice and sold them last year for tax loss harvesting.

After the 30 days have passed for a wash sale I am looking at putting most of my cash in the IRA into SCHE and maybe some VWO. Total position will be about 5%

 

[pb4uski]

We have 60% equities and of that 30% international equities, mostly Total International Stock Index, which is in turn about 18% so that is only 3.2% in emerging markets. I still have some rebalancing to do so perhaps I'll add a EM tilt and bring it up a bit.

 

[ESRwannabe]

I would be wary of emerging markets in 2014. Several bellwether IT companies reported last quarter that the emerging markets are under stress right now. Many of them may be going into a recession this year.

 

[Fermion]

I would be wary of emerging markets in 2014. Several bellwether IT companies reported last quarter that the emerging markets are under stress right now. Many of them may be going into a recession this year.

Exactly the right time to buy EM.

 

[foxfirev5]

Thanks for the heads up. I plan to DCA in over the next few months. Of course this is only to balance my total int'l holdings per the AA of my ISP.

 

[MooreBonds]

I just tallied up my exposure to EM to reply to this thread, and it was a little higher than I would have guessed: 27% (if you include China and most Asian countries as "emerging"). Without China, it's 24%.

Total international direct exposure: 38% (excluding effects of US-domiciled companies with large overseas sales)

Which is fine for me, since I'm trying to increase my foreign exposure with the belief that the US won't have as high of a repeat success of the long-run market averages from 1900-2000. And it's also a small consolation to help explain why my overall portfolio went up "only" about 15% in 2013 - which is still better than a sharp stick in the eye, but when you see the domestic indexes rise 25%-30%, it can be a little frustrating. Just waiting for EM's turn!

 

[Gatordoc50]

I tend to follow Bogle's advice and keep my international exposure and slice/dice allocations lower. The lost decade wasn't the greatest but my lack of bond exposure hurt me more than my lack of international exposure. I'll continue to stick to around 10% INT with 2.5 % EM.

 

[heeyy_joe]

I am out of emerging markets until late 3rd or early 4th quarter.

 

[Animorph]

I am out of emerging markets until late 3rd or early 4th quarter.

What happens then?

 

[BBQ-Nut]

VWO did pretty horrible in 2013...maybe it will have 30% gains in 2014.

Amen - VWO was a drag down on my returns in 2013.

2014 not looking good so far either - its on my watch list to jettison.

But then hindsight is always perfect, eh?