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Old 12-01-2018, 05:33 PM   #21
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It was a mistake for Powell to be so hawkish. Recent comments simply acknowledge the mistake. Fed should always be data dependent and should say so.
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Old 12-01-2018, 05:54 PM   #22
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will they rise this month ( December ) ?

i think YES !

my logic is the Fed needs room to move if there is a major downturn

now next year will be a harder question i think 2 more rises , before the global economy goes into a major downturn ( about the middle of 2019 , pick your favourite trigger .. there are plenty of candidates )

the US is not an island there are plenty of internal and external issues that could topple the 'wall of worry '
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Old 12-04-2018, 05:37 PM   #23
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Pentagon CD rates as of today.

Term Rate APR

1 Year 2.76% 2.80%
2 Year 2.91% 2.95%
3 Year 3.01% 3.05%
4 Year 3.10% 3.15%
5 Year 3.44% 3.50%
I have two CDs with them. One matures late Jan and the other mid Feb. I think I will add to the regular CD and have to let the Roth stand as I don't have earned income anymore. I thought about laddering one or both but I believe I will just take the 5 year term on both then buy more each year to form a top heavy ladder on the regular CD. I went by and talked to them today on how much is insured and was surprised that they are insured up to $250,000 for each owner and beneficiaries. That meant, according to the guy I talked to, one CD can be insured for many multiples of $250,000. With a wife as the primary and three kids as secondary the CD could be insured up to a million. I may have to look that up to make sure as it is contrary to what I understood before the conversation. Can anybody got any thoughts on this? EDIT: The normal CD is under a trust which has primary and secondary beneficiaries and the Roth has primary and beneficiaries.
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Old 12-04-2018, 06:20 PM   #24
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@WWDog, the FDIC (and I believe NCUA) insurance limits were raised from $100K to $250K several years ago during the financial crisis.

The limits are per member financial institution per depositor with identical titling. So if you have a checking account and a savings account at Bank X, the total of those two is covered to $250K. If you have a checking account with kid #1 as beneficiary and a checking account with kid #2 as a beneficiary, that would be different titling and each would be covered to $250K.

I successfully used this technique to protect $250K at IndyMac Bank when the limit was $100K. I had three savings accounts, each under $100K, with each of my three kids as beneficiary. Good thing too, as the bank went under when I had the money there. Got every penny back.

(Not sure how it works with spouses though. I was single at the time. Also not sure about trusts, although I suspect they are considered different titling than the Roth since a trust is considered as a separate "individual".)
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Old 12-04-2018, 06:36 PM   #25
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I just looked it up online and the term unique beneficiary is used. I believe the guy gave me some good poop from the way I read it each of those CDs are insured up to one million with the way I have it set up. Not that I have that much at present. But my spread sheet that goes out till I will be too old to care and spread sheets are obsolete shows that it is a possibility.
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Old 12-05-2018, 12:33 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by WWDog View Post
I just looked it up online and the term unique beneficiary is used. I believe the guy gave me some good poop from the way I read it each of those CDs are insured up to one million with the way I have it set up. Not that I have that much at present. But my spread sheet that goes out till I will be too old to care and spread sheets are obsolete shows that it is a possibility.
If it's a single CD I don't think there's any way to insure it up to $1M.

If you had four $250K CD's, one with your wife as beneficiary, the second with your first child as a beneficiary, the third with your second child as a beneficiary, and the fourth with your third child as a beneficiary, then I think you would have $1M in total coverage - $250K per CD. In order to do this you would have to have each CD in a separate account.

If you have one CD with your wife and three kids as beneficiaries, I think it would only be insured up to $250K.

In other words, it's not the number of beneficiaries per account, it's the number of unique combinations of beneficiaries across accounts.

I may be mistaken, but I don't think I am. Please read carefully and make sure you're convinced; I would hate for you to be wrong.
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Old 12-05-2018, 06:23 AM   #27
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Powell's boss doesn't want more rate hikes.
Are you talking about Tariff Man? Or someone else?
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Old 12-06-2018, 08:43 AM   #28
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I put the probability of a December rate hike a less than 50%.
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Old 12-06-2018, 08:51 AM   #29
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In case people forget, the Fed governors once nominated and confirmed act independently from any politician. The same with Supreme Court justices.

About the rate hike, the Fed does use the stock market as one of the leading economic indicators. Will the rout be enough for them to pause? It may be.
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Old 12-06-2018, 08:54 AM   #30
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I put the probability of a December rate hike a less than 50%.

+1, I agree.
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Old 12-06-2018, 09:05 AM   #31
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Fed independence is a mythology. No one entity exists in a vacuum. Of course convincing yourself your above it all is intoxicating.
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