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Will the fed hike next month
Old 11-27-2018, 05:06 PM   #1
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Will the fed hike next month

Does anyone feel the fed needs more hikes to control inflation? Are they ahead of the curve? Or on the money?
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Old 11-27-2018, 05:30 PM   #2
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They will hike their rates next month.

It's important to get them higher while the economy is still good. That way they'll have some room to drop the rates when needed.
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Old 11-27-2018, 05:59 PM   #3
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I sincerely hope so.... I also agree with the second sentence in the second paragraph above.
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Old 11-27-2018, 06:12 PM   #4
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They will hike their rates next month.

It's important to get them higher while the economy is still good. That way they'll have some room to drop the rates when needed.
Agree, but perhaps will lessen the number of hikes in 2019 vs. what was originally planned.
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Old 11-27-2018, 06:20 PM   #5
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When does does "don't fight the fed" apply? Inflation is low. Wages are in check. Employment is I guess full. So when do you know the tipping point has passed & a bear market has been induced?
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Old 11-27-2018, 06:33 PM   #6
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When the Purchasing Managers index dips below 47.
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Old 11-27-2018, 06:38 PM   #7
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Gotta ways to go. Your booolish then. Big December & January like last time could repeat.
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Old 11-27-2018, 07:26 PM   #8
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CDs should move up agsin in January. Gotta watch that yield curve.
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Old 11-27-2018, 07:32 PM   #9
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Inflation is in the pipeline. Constriction materials have gone up & the fed might have data the gen pop doesn't have.
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Old 11-28-2018, 04:18 AM   #10
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Does anyone feel the fed needs more hikes to control inflation?
Yes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Free bird View Post
Are they ahead of the curve? Or on the money?
On the money.
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Old 11-28-2018, 05:06 AM   #11
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Will hike in Dec. That's largely baked in. 3 hikes next yr seems too much. They need to say they will be data dependent.
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Old 11-28-2018, 05:28 AM   #12
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They will hike their rates next month.

It's important to get them higher while the economy is still good. That way they'll have some room to drop the rates when needed.
I agree with each point. Yes, this is a "me too" post.
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Old 11-29-2018, 09:04 AM   #13
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Powell's boss doesn't want more rate hikes.
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Old 11-29-2018, 09:35 AM   #14
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It is an interesting thesis that has been built up over the year, stock market gains are justified economy is in great shape, tax cuts will keep economy booming, earning in 2019 will be 10% higher, oops stock market drops, economy must be slowing fed hikes rates too fast Powell 3 weeks after saying rates have a lot further to go to get to neutral changes tack and says rates nearly neutral, stock market soars expecting no future rates economy should grow 10%. I think FED is boxed in, if they don't raise inflation will increase, if they raise it puts too much pressure on record corporate debt balance sheet and affects margins. Most likely FED is data dependent, only the data they watch is the S&P500 in actuality. Nothing else has really changed in the last 3 weeks for the FED to have changed stances. SO if the S&P500 increase to record highs they will raise rates otherwise they will stop, if S&P500 breaks badly they will cut.
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Old 11-29-2018, 09:46 AM   #15
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They're wind sniffers bureacrats posing as an all knowing entity free of politics. Oh pleeze. The boss will make them stand down on rates next month most likely.
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Old 11-29-2018, 09:47 AM   #16
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I think they will raise 1 more in December to keep the raises in 2018, then re-evaluate for 2019.
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Old 11-29-2018, 10:07 AM   #17
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I think they will raise 1 more in December to keep the raises in 2018, then re-evaluate for 2019.
Agreed.

There have been economy slowing signs over the past few weeks, so re-evaluation for 2019 makes sense. Ultimately the Fed has to be data dependent, and there has been a lot of tightening this year, plus the Fed balance sheet unwind is going full bore putting pressure on the longer end.

Notice that corporate spreads have widened too. The lower quality bonds are being punished because people are getting nervous.

But I still expect a December raise.
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Old 11-29-2018, 10:16 AM   #18
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They're wind sniffers bureacrats posing as an all knowing entity free of politics. Oh pleeze. The boss will make them stand down on rates next month most likely.

I'll bet the farm on a December hike.


Also see another 2 or 3 trading days of +2-3%. That will happen before the hikes, setting up the backdrop for the cause of the hike... sustained growth, and an economy that isn't overheated.


Of course I am guessing, and have no skin in this game but I see a dovish fed the next 2 quarters. All the analysts keep pushing out to the second half of 2019 as the bellwether. I can somewhat agree that right now with the recent pull backs we could climb a bit higher before another correction in the middle of 2019.
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Old 11-29-2018, 10:23 AM   #19
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I don't see the point of worrying about this question. The market consensus is baked into the market prices. And the consensus is based on far more information than any retail investor can access or absorb.

If the consensus is wrong, prices will move, but the direction depends on the direction of the error. So betting against the consensus is basically gambling. Dice games are fun but usually not profitable in the long run.
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Old 11-29-2018, 10:41 AM   #20
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Powell's boss doesn't want more rate hikes.
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They're wind sniffers bureacrats posing as an all knowing entity free of politics. Oh pleeze. The boss will make them stand down on rates next month most likely.



No boss as you present it... and there will be more rate hikes... "the boss" can bloviate all he wants but will not affect the decision...



The question is will there be 3 or 4 next year.... now some are starting to predict 2, but I think that would only happen if the economy took a downturn which does not look like it will happen right now...
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