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Worst December since Great Depression
12-18-2018, 01:02 AM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,568
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Worst December since Great Depression
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/17/wors...epression.html
Dow and S&P only down about 8%, hard to believe it's one of the worst.
But at this point, I'd settle for a lump of coal for Christmas.
Humbug!
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You know that suit they burying you in? Thar ain’t no pockets in that suit, boy.
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12-18-2018, 04:50 AM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 8,332
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Well, it's an eye-grabbing--and true--headline on the part of CNBC but the chart shows this Dec is down 7.6% vs 17% in 1931. A big difference IMO.
I don't have the numbers for December 2008 and I was surprised that it didn't make the chart.
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Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
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12-18-2018, 05:06 AM
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#3
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Minneapolis 'burbs
Posts: 382
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It's possible that by the time December rolled around in 2008 that a lot of the damage had already been done.
Also, it was the month after the presidential election here in the US - sometimes the markets here idle at that point while trying to determine what the new person in the Oval Office is going to do.
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12-18-2018, 05:14 AM
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#4
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Flyover country
Posts: 25,155
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On the other hand,
Quote:
Over the past 100 years, December has never produced the worst monthly return of the calendar year.
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dec.PNG
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...th-of-the-year
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I thought growing old would take longer.
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12-18-2018, 05:30 AM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 8,332
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I've just written off this year as one of the crazy ones and hoping for a better one ahead. 2011 and 2015 were dogs as well.
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
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12-18-2018, 05:43 AM
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#6
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 401
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2019 might be another dog year if the China problem continues.
I do not see a quick resolution to this problem.
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12-18-2018, 06:00 AM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Atlanta Suburb
Posts: 1,499
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Alternate headline - In Gift to Investors, Stocks go on Best December Monthly Sale Since Great Depression
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"Oh, twice as much ain't twice as good
And can't sustain like one half could
It's wanting more that's gonna send me to my knees" - John Mayer
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12-18-2018, 06:26 AM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Crownsville
Posts: 3,695
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December 2008 was actually a rebound month, so while 2008 as a whole was a horrible year, December itself wasn't. Most of the losses, for me at least, came in September, October, and November, with the bottom hitting around Thanksgiving. By December 31, I was actually up about 20% from that bottom.
That upward trend continued into early 2009, to where I was up around 31% from that Thanksgiving bottom, but then it took another sharp turn for the worse, and the "official" bottom hit on March 9, 2009.
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12-18-2018, 06:31 AM
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#9
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Cholula
Posts: 1,595
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Based on what my parents told me of their experiences living through The Great Depression, so far this December is much better for us than any they had to survive was for them.
__________________
“Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. That way, you’ll be a mile from them, and you’ll have their shoes.” – Jack Handey
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12-18-2018, 06:37 AM
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#10
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: gypsy traveller
Posts: 673
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The month isn't over yet.
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12-18-2018, 06:46 AM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 8,971
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I saw a chart the other day that showed in most, not all, bad Decembers lead to worse Januarys. The good news is about a year later, most, not all, markets are positive again.
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12-18-2018, 06:55 AM
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#12
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,518
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For all we know markets may fall substantially from here, but for now, we are close to all time highs in the US. The only way to see current equity market levels as anything other than "really good" is to pick one specific time frame and then compare it without context.
https://ritholtz.com/2018/12/spx-vs-pundits-2/
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12-18-2018, 07:34 AM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 8,332
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flintnational
Alternate headline - In Gift to Investors, Stocks go on Best December Monthly Sale Since Great Depression
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+1
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
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12-18-2018, 07:36 AM
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#14
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gone traveling
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
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We are looking at a lost year here.
Haven't had one in a while?
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12-18-2018, 07:38 AM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,197
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On a related note, is the bull market considered to be ended only if the SP 500 goes down 20% from the most recent high?
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TGIM
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12-18-2018, 07:51 AM
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#16
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 751
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Up for the moment.
They buying the bargains (most likely)
and/or has Santa showed up after all?
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12-18-2018, 08:18 AM
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#17
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 2,232
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I will neither win big, nor lose big on market swings, because my equities AA is only 27%. However, if the market continues to slide, to a point maybe 25-30% from the highs, I will likely up my equities AA, and maybe "win" a little.
Time will tell.
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12-18-2018, 08:30 AM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: North
Posts: 4,023
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joeea
We are looking at a lost year here.
Haven't had one in a while?
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Better than a lost TWO years! I still think we can end up above water beating inflation.
__________________
Time > $$$ ~ 100% equities ~ FIRE @2031
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12-18-2018, 08:34 AM
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#19
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 2,464
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joeea
We are looking at a lost year here.
Haven't had one in a while?
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2015. Wouldn't call that "a while".
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FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged
"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
“There is always a well-known solution to every human problem: neat, plausible, and wrong.” - H.L. Mencken
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12-18-2018, 08:45 AM
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#20
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 276
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kgtest
Better than a lost TWO years! I still think we can end up above water beating inflation.
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If inflation is negative
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