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Old 08-03-2015, 12:26 PM   #61
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Anyone think this Apple sell-off is excessive? I may have in increase my stake soon. If it goes to $115 i'm definitely going to find a way to increase my position. Maybe even sooner. It's seems noticeably under-priced now, doesn't it?
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Old 08-03-2015, 12:47 PM   #62
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Amazing that everyone made an excellent choice in their biggest individual stock holding and nobody listed Radio Shack as their largest holding.

Are we all just excellent stock pickers? Makes me wonder why we index...
I don't have any individual stocks at all any more. Everything is in funds. My reasons are that I'm extremely retired, extremely lazy, and extremely risk averse. I'd rather have a portfolio that I can pretty much ignore, so that I can nap instead.
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Old 08-03-2015, 12:59 PM   #63
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Anyone think this Apple sell-off is excessive? I may have in increase my stake soon. If it goes to $115 i'm definitely going to find a way to increase my position. Maybe even sooner. It's seems noticeably under-priced now, doesn't it?
With a PE below 14. Yeah, it's low.

Compare: MSFT PE is 30 and even CSCO is 16.
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Old 08-03-2015, 01:00 PM   #64
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Anyone think this Apple sell-off is excessive? I may have in increase my stake soon. If it goes to $115 i'm definitely going to find a way to increase my position. Maybe even sooner. It's seems noticeably under-priced now, doesn't it?
It is 12% off the 1-year high. I think expectations were that APPL would hit a winner with the iWatchie. However, we had fitbits on our hand already and did not like the steep price for the Apple.

Apple Watch sales fall by 90 per cent

I will buy when the dividend gets closer to 2%. And yes, I am kicking self for not starting a position when it split.
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Old 08-03-2015, 01:11 PM   #65
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It is 12% off the 1-year high. I think expectations were that APPL would hit a winner with the iWatchie. However, we had fitbits on our hand already and did not like the steep price for the Apple.

Apple Watch sales fall by 90 per cent
...or maybe listen to what Apple said during their last earning call:

Quote:
Secondly, to provide a bit more color sales of the Watch did exceed our expectations and they did so despite supply still trailing demand at the end of the quarter. And to give you a little additional insight, through the end of the quarter, in fact, the Apple Watch sell-through was higher than the comparable launch periods of the original iPhone or the original iPad. We only had 680 points of sale in the quarter for the Watch. Online sales were so great that we did not have inventory in our sales until June. And so those points of sale, pretty much the overwhelming majority of the low numbers of sales, were not there until the last two weeks of the quarter. As I look at all of these things, we feel really great.
DW and I are enjoying our Apple watches and I'm having fun playing around with writing a "native app" (love having enough free time for this in ER!) for it. Native apps will be available to the general public this fall when watchOS 2.0 ships. Folks had to wait much longer for native apps on the iPhone.

Give it a little time before you write it's obituary.
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Old 08-03-2015, 07:03 PM   #66
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Stock holding? Miniscule... From some kind of adjustment many years ago... a few dozen shares of Metlife... from an insurance policy taken out when I was born, and found in the Rhode Island records graveyard.

Never paid any attention to it as the amount was so small. Today, I found this article that cites a 2nd quarter profit loss. I'm not concerned about that, but for the reason for the loss. A $593 million dollar loss in derivatives.

UPDATE 2-MetLife profit falls on derivatives losses | Reuters

Quote:
MetLife Inc, the biggest U.S. life insurer, reported a 21 percent fall in quarterly profit, dragged down by $593 million in derivatives losses.

The company has long relied on its substantial derivatives program to hedge against risks that insurers are exposed to such as currency exchange rates, volatile equities markets and changes to interest rates.

MetLife blamed rising interest rates and the weakening of the dollar against certain currencies for the after-tax derivatives losses in the quarter ended June 30.
Further:
Quote:
MetLife has been scaling back on capital-intensive businesses such as annuities and focusing on traditional life insurance and pension products as it gears up for new capital rules.

After years of delay, the U.S. Federal Reserve is drawing up nationwide capital standards for the $1-trillion insurance industry, in line with the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform law.

Insurers fear they could become as heavily-regulated as the Wall Street banks and analysts have estimated that MetLife's capital levels could drop by 50 percent in a worst-case scenario under the new rules.

MetLife lowered its return on equity forecasts in May, partly due to uncertainty about the new rules.
Would be interested in hearing more about this apparent result of coming into compliance with Dodd-Frank. Will it be limited to large insurers? What about banks? There doesn't seem to be much discussion about this, either in the printed or digital media. While the final rules have not been written, and actual dates for compliance not determined... very little has been written about the potential dollar effect (except for the costs of coming into compliance... paper work and record keeping ).

So...any thoughts as to the who, and how much... of what has already happened, or is yet to be determined in terms of dollars. Have other corporations taken losses... either derivative or other losses in preparation for compliance with Dodd Frank?
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Old 08-03-2015, 07:11 PM   #67
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Anyone think this Apple sell-off is excessive? I may have in increase my stake soon. If it goes to $115 i'm definitely going to find a way to increase my position. Maybe even sooner. It's seems noticeably under-priced now, doesn't it?
I think the analysts who follow stocks have no visibility on the Chinese markets. So anything they do there gets discounted. The PE is now under 14. Google is just under 30. FB is over 90.

I am hanging in with my 2100 shares. I will not load up because of portfolio allocation.
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Old 08-03-2015, 07:30 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by aaronc879 View Post
Anyone think this Apple sell-off is excessive? I may have in increase my stake soon. If it goes to $115 i'm definitely going to find a way to increase my position. Maybe even sooner. It's seems noticeably under-priced now, doesn't it?
Buyers and sellers on Apple are always moody. I ignore most of the volatility.
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Old 08-03-2015, 08:23 PM   #69
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It is 12% off the 1-year high. I think expectations were that APPL would hit a winner with the iWatchie. However, we had fitbits on our hand already and did not like the steep price for the Apple.

Apple Watch sales fall by 90 per cent

I will buy when the dividend gets closer to 2%. And yes, I am kicking self for not starting a position when it split.
I happily retired my fitbit when I could switch to the Apple Watch. It's really been great. It's kind of like the iPad, it's hard for a non-user to imagine how useful it really is.

Also, products like the Apple Watch take years to reach critical mass. I don't think there was really much of a run up in anticipation.
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Old 08-03-2015, 08:38 PM   #70
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Megacorp. They kept giving more to me in profit sharing. I sold a whole bunch, but they still seem to give me more. It is the only individual stock I own and it is not really an individual stock. They have it is a fund that only has megacorp stock and maybe some cash to cash people out.
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Old 08-03-2015, 08:56 PM   #71
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BRK-A is largest holding ... bought 4 shares over time at prices in the low to mid-$100ks, now about $215k per share. I sort of think of it as a good SPX analog with better prospects. It's currently about 11% of the total pile; AAPL is currently second, but by a good bit.

Recent ER so still heavy into equities and short-term instruments in our taxable accts. Will probably work that closer to a more balanced approach over a period of time.
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Old 08-04-2015, 03:18 AM   #72
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Old 08-04-2015, 09:12 AM   #73
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Old 08-05-2015, 07:16 PM   #74
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My old Megacorp stock (now held in a brokerage account) provided as incentive/profit sharing. In the doldrums for years, it's taken off of late such that it is now my biggest holding. Plan to dump a fair amount of it soon.
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Old 08-05-2015, 07:20 PM   #75
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My old Megacorp stock (now held in a brokerage account) provided as incentive/profit sharing. In the doldrums for years, it's taken off of late such that it is now my biggest holding. Plan to dump a fair amount of it soon.
That's nice! Wish mine would take off!
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Old 08-06-2015, 09:59 AM   #76
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BXLT 22% - biotech spinoff, calculated risk
AAPL 18% - value in the company when bought and awaiting 2 year mark (Sept to sell for long term capital gains tax advantage)
GSK 16% - dividend with company value
MET 14% - dividend with company value
JCP 7% - risky, but could pay off
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Old 08-06-2015, 10:11 AM   #77
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RE:AAPL
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I think the analysts who follow stocks have no visibility on the Chinese markets. So anything they do there gets discounted. The PE is now under 14. Google is just under 30. FB is over 90.

I am hanging in with my 2100 shares. I will not load up because of portfolio allocation.
Wow, AAPL PE is below most of the other top holdings in the S&P 500. Hmmmm, I just might take a position (above whatever SPY holds, a few %).

-ERD50
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Old 08-06-2015, 05:09 PM   #78
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Old 08-06-2015, 05:24 PM   #79
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In the past, I have held low P/E stocks just to see the E eventually shrank to match the P. The low P/E was for the previous 12 months, while the market "knew" to discount the future decline in earnings.

I am not saying this will necessarily happen to Apple, as I have no insight to its market, not being long nor short it, but the above has happened to me more often than I would like.
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Old 08-06-2015, 05:56 PM   #80
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In the past, I have held low P/E stocks just to see the E eventually shrank to match the P. The low P/E was for the previous 12 months, while the market "knew" to discount the future decline in earnings.

I am not saying this will necessarily happen to Apple, as I have no insight to its market, not being long nor short it, but the above has happened to me more often than I would like.
And I've done the same. And heck, if I ended up losing on AAPL, I could end up losing 'bragging right' on all I made on my purchases right at the bottom in '97.

I'll likely chicken out and just watch my SPY.

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