Kidnappings and Violence in Mexico

[RonBoyd]

Quote:
Okay. Now that IS scary.

If a person’s mind is made up, there’s no point in me saying anything more about the good things Mexico offers. It won’t be believed anyway

Hey, I am your side here. Nevertheless that article WAS scary. As is this segment seen on NBC Evening News this evening:

msnbc.com Video Player

Makes me wonder if some of us may be living in a dream world, eh.

 

[haha]

Hey, I am your side here.
Makes me wonder if some of us may be living in a dream world, eh.

What is it about this topic that makes people more interested in selling their point of view-take sides as it were- rather than look into the situation and decide how meaningful it may or may not be?

One thing certain, when Tioga G or other Mexico aficionados say, "Hey, I don't feel scared in Mexico" that is as close to meaningless as a statement can get.

Do these boosters feel that if every person who goes to Mexico doesn't get attacked and beheaded then Mexico is totally safe?

This is either extreme innumeracy or total irrationality. These reported events are random, with a frequency and distribution that is hard to pin down.

I absolutely don't care who goes to Mexico. But the range of topics on this board is getting very inbred. At least this has some reference to reported events in the larger world. Doesn't it seem just a little weird that our most popular topics are "How do you feel about...?" Maybe for a change of pace we should try "What do you know about...? And what is the source of your information?"

Somehow it is a little hard for me to place the opinion of some tourist or travel writer that Mexico is safe above the reports of police agencies of robberies, kidnappings, murders and beheadings.

Sorry.

Ha

 

[RonBoyd]

One thing certain, when Tioga G or other Mexico aficionados say, "Hey, I don't feel scared in Mexico" that is as close to meaningless as a statement can get.

Yes, I said that poorly... I should haver stated categoricly that I WAS on Billy's side but I am quickly being swayed by these News reports.

Sorry.

 

[BunsGettingFirm]

Is Mexico the only Latin American country or 3rd world country you can consider retiring to? Then stop worrying and wait until the perceived or real violence blow over while you chill in some other tropical place where the drinks are cheap.

 

[Trek]

Is Mexico the only Latin American country or 3rd world country you can consider retiring to? Then stop worrying and wait until the perceived or real violence blow over while you chill in some other tropical place where the drinks are cheap.

I'd consider Panama (based on past vacation there) if I live long enough that the cold starts to bother me.

 

[Gone4Good]

Let's put this in perspective . . .

According to this article CNSNews.com - Drug-Cartel Murders in Mexico Double in 2008--American Security Expert Latest Kidnapping Victim there were 5,376 drug related homicides in Mexico in 2008. That is a 114% increase from the prior year. Clearly there is a problem south of the border. But at the same time, the population of Mexico is 103,000,000. So the annual drug related murder rate is 0.005% annually (probably something significantly less for those not involved with drugs or law enforcement). Now according to this site http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm there were 16,929 murders in the US out of a population of 301MM for a murder rate of 0.005%.

So it would seem that your chances of being murdered in Mexico in a drug related homicide are about the same as the chances of being murdered in the US generally (which is about 1 in 20,000). Not exactly a reason to boycott the country, in my view.

 

[Billy]

Bunsgettingfirm

Is Mexico the only Latin American country or 3rd world country you can consider retiring to?

Some people have considered Ecuador and I hear Uruguay is becoming very popular as well. Friends of ours (Terhorts) have lived off and on in Argentina for decades and love it, but inflation is getting out of control right now. I heard something about the government nationalizing the people’s pensions there, which isn’t a good sign. - But I don’t know if they actually followed through with it or not.

….YrsToGo

So it would seem that your chances of being murdered in Mexico in a drug related homicide are about the same as the chances of being murdered in the US generally (which is about 1 in 20,000). Not exactly a reason to boycott the country, in my view.

Thanks for sharing those numbers and for bringing common sense to the discussion.

Hasta luego,

Akaisha
Author, The Adventurer’s Guide to Early Retirement

 

[Gone4Good]

As a follow-up point, I'll just note that we humans are pretty terrible judges of risk. We dramatically overestimate risks that are sensational in nature, but very seldom occur (like shark attacks, airplane crashes, terrorism or Mexican drug violence) and dramatically underestimate the mundane (like automobile accidents). There were 41,000 automobile related fatalities in the US in 2007. So your risk of dying in your car is 3 times greater than your risk of being murdered, either here in the US for any reason, or by the drug cartels in Mexico.

But automobile accidents don't generate big splashy headlines. And driving is a part of life. So we ignore the risks and, pedal to the metal, zip daily down the highway at high rates of speed with oncoming traffic, and certain death, just a few yards away. Mexico, on the other hand, is, for many of us, far away, foreign, out of our comfort zone, and therefore, risky.

But I suspect that for avid travelers like Billy & Akaisha, going to Mexico and similar places is a bit like getting in the car and zipping down the highway . . . just one of the risks of everyday life.

 

[Bestwifeever]

Let's put this in perspective . . .

According to this article CNSNews.com - Drug-Cartel Murders in Mexico Double in 2008--American Security Expert Latest Kidnapping Victim there were 5,376 drug related homicides in Mexico in 2008. That is a 114% increase from the prior year. Clearly there is a problem south of the border. But at the same time, the population of Mexico is 103,000,000. So the annual drug related murder rate is 0.005% annually (probably something significantly less for those not involved with drugs or law enforcement). Now according to this site http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm there were 16,929 murders in the US out of a population of 301MM for a murder rate of 0.005%.

So it would seem that your chances of being murdered in Mexico in a drug related homicide are about the same as the chances of being murdered in the US generally (which is about 1 in 20,000). Not exactly a reason to boycott the country, in my view.

I don't have a dog in this hunt, but I don't think you are comparing apples to apples--what is the overall homicide rate in Mexico? What is the drug-related homicide rate in the US?

 

[Gone4Good]

I don't have a dog in this hunt, but I don't think you are comparing apples to apples--what is the overall homicide rate in Mexico? What is the drug-related homicide rate in the US?

Agreed. But if your concern is about being a victim of drug related violence in Mexico (as articulated by the OP, see below), the relevant statistic is drug related violence in Mexico. The comparison to the US is only to give perspective.

I wasn't able to find current homicide data for all of Mexico, but the UN had this report as of 2004. http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/IHS-rates-05012009.pdf If you add ~2,500 drug related homicides to the 2004 data, you get a murder rate for Mexico comparable to the per capita automobile deaths in the US (see post above).

Here's a map showing homicide rates for the rest of the world (again as of 2004) for further comparison. http://www.unodc.org/images/data-and-analysis/homicide_rate_map.pdf

Apparently the drug gangs are fighting the government and violence has risen.

. . .

Might be a good time to skip Mexico as a tourist destination.

 

[haha]

I don't have a dog in this hunt, but I don't think you are comparing apples to apples--what is the overall homicide rate in Mexico? What is the drug-related homicide rate in the US?

Not important when your goal is to spin.

 

[Bestwifeever]

Agreed. But if your concern is about being a victim of drug related violence in Mexico (as articulated by the OP, see below), the relevant statistic is drug related violence in Mexico. The comparison to the US is only to give perspective.

Sorry, but if drug-related murder statistics are the basis for a decision, I don't think the drug-related murder rate in Mexico is at all relevant without a comparison to the drug-related murder rate in the United States (or another country that is being considered for retirement).

I wish I were in Mexico now, however! It's so cold here....

 

[Gone4Good]

Sorry, but if drug-related murder statistics are the basis for a decision, I don't think the drug-related murder rate in Mexico is at all relevant without a comparison to the drug-related murder rate in the United States (or another country that is being considered for retirement).

On the contrary, if I'm worried about an increase in drug related crime in Mexico, and I'm trying to make a decision about whether to go there, the drug related crime in Mexico is the only relevant statistic. I don't need to compare it to anything at all to make a decision. For example, on an average annual basis, 1 in every 20,000 Mexicans are murdered in drug related crime. Assuming every person in Mexico has an equal chance of being murdered by the drug cartels then someone spending a week in Mexico has a 1 in 1,074,142 chance of being murdered by drug violence.

Each person can decide for themselves whether a 1 in a million chance is high risk, or not.

 

[unclemick]

On the contrary, if I'm worried about an increase in drug related crime in Mexico, and I'm trying to make a decision about whether to go there, the drug related crime in Mexico is the only relevant statistic. I don't need to compare it to anything at all to make a decision. For example, on an average annual basis, 1 in every 20,000 Mexicans are murdered in drug related crime. Assuming every person in Mexico has an equal chance of being murdered by the drug cartels then someone spending a week in Mexico has a 1 in 1,074,142 chance of being murdered by drug violence.

Each person can decide for themselves whether a 1 in a million chance is high risk, or not.

As an ex en ga neer - I don't do numbers.

Her Granddaughter is expecting twins around Mardis Gras this year - so if we find ourselves in New Orleans - having survived thirty of them pre Katrina - have some idea of what to avoid and precautions to take.

heh heh heh - Sooo - what do the locals do/do not and why - usually they are the first ones to ask.

 

[free4now]

I think I read a story that the number of westerners kidnapped in Mexico was only 36 per year. I'm a fan of putting things into context, and that number is significantly smaller than the number of people who get struck by lightning, much less car crashes. So it isn't anything I'd worry about.

You're much more likely to be undone by conventional random crime in mexico: theft, robbery, carjacking, etc.

Westerners being caught in the crossfire of rival drug lords is very rare, both here in the USA and in Mexico.

 

[BunsGettingFirm]

As a follow-up point, I'll just note that we humans are pretty terrible judges of risk. We dramatically overestimate risks that are sensational in nature, but very seldom occur (like shark attacks, airplane crashes, terrorism or Mexican drug violence) and dramatically underestimate the mundane (like automobile accidents). There were 41,000 automobile related fatalities in the US in 2007. So your risk of dying in your car is 3 times greater than your risk of being murdered, either here in the US for any reason, or by the drug cartels in Mexico.

But automobile accidents don't generate big splashy headlines. And driving is a part of life. So we ignore the risks and, pedal to the metal, zip daily down the highway at high rates of speed with oncoming traffic, and certain death, just a few yards away. Mexico, on the other hand, is, for many of us, far away, foreign, out of our comfort zone, and therefore, risky.

But I suspect that for avid travelers like Billy & Akaisha, going to Mexico and similar places is a bit like getting in the car and zipping down the highway . . . just one of the risks of everyday life.

This is the same reason that Enron employees loaded up on Enron stock. The familiar just seems less risky.

 

[RonBoyd]

Is Mexico the only Latin American country or 3rd world country you can consider retiring to?

I don't know about "retiring to" but here is some advice for traveling in/to "dangerous" countries:

elliott.org | Verboten vacations: 9 reasons forbidden is “in” this year

“People who love to travel will take their chances,” says Glenn Strachan, a wireless communications consultant in Annapolis, Md. He’s been to several “forbidden” places, including everyone’s favorite no-no vacation hotspot, Cuba, as well as Vietnam and Cambodia when they were still closed to Americans.

“Had we been caught,” he says of his visit to Cambodia years ago, “we likely would have been killed.”

Just remember:

Even if you decide to travel somewhere familiar — or at least government-sanctioned — there’s no guarantee you’ll come back alive.

and above all:

ignorance is not necessarily bliss

 

[Billy]

RonBoyd

I don't know about "retiring to" but here is some advice for traveling in/to "dangerous" countries:

elliott.org | Verboten vacations: 9 reasons forbidden is “in” this year

The State Department publishes a list of travel warnings that shouldn’t be ignored. They range from Cote d’Ivoire, which is experiencing periodic episodes of political unrest and violence since a failed coup a few years ago, to the Philippines, where Americans are at risk from terrorist attacks.

The Philippines have over 7,000 islands in their archipelago, 4,000 of them inhabited. The threat of terrorism isn’t in all of them only the ones more southern, like Mindanao where the Muslims are making their views known. There are threats of terrorism in Thailand also, but only in the south where it is close to Malaysia. The Muslims have made their views known there also.

However, I have spoken to couples who have traveled all through Malaysia with no problem. Now, see, that’s a place that wouldn’t appeal to me for safety reasons… but then I have no first hand experience. But... I am not interested in getting first hand experience there.

“I think that the biggest hurdles to traveling to a forbidden destination are the propaganda machine and the hostile, uninformed reactions of fellow Americans who really know nothing about the countries in question or about the laws regarding travel there,” says Julie Schwietert Collazo, the managing editor of Matador Travel.

I know, I know, she’s just ’some travel writer’ but at least she has first hand knowledge of an area. She’s not getting it from ’some newspaper story’.

Akaisha
Author, The Adventurer's Guide to Early Retirement

 

[tomintucson]

Akaisha,

I think you and your husband are perhaps more adventurous than myself, so I want to report that my trip to Malaysia in December 2007 was actually quite pleasant. It's a nation of mixed ethnic groups. The dominant Malays, about 60% of the population as I recall, tend to be Muslim. There is also a very large Chinese presence, and a smaller Indian populace. It's the same ethnic mix as Singapore, but different ratios. As with Singapore, it felt like being in three countries at once. Culturally, an unbeatable bargain! The Malays are practitioners of a very moderate Islam. That said, the Thai-Malay border is indeed a hot spot, and if I'm not mistaken, the problems are primarily on the Thai side of the border. I have not crossed through there on land, but I probably wouldn't hang around for too long, although my understanding is that the only ones really under threat are Thai nationals, by whom the Thai Muslims feel persecuted.

Plus, Kuala Lumpur is a very cool city, as cities go. Friendly, progressive, and very safe. While there I was invited by two local ladies for coffee, then to their home for lunch, where I visited with their extended family. While I was only in Malaysia for about eight days, I felt the same level of comfort (very high) that I've experienced in Thailand, Vietnam, and other countries in the region.

On a different note, it seems that a lot of posters seem to have quite a bit invested in whether or not you and your husband feel safe in Mexico. You didn't really own Enron stock, did you?

Tom

 

[Billy]

Tomintucson

I think you and your husband are perhaps more adventurous than myself, so I want to report that my trip to Malaysia in December 2007 was actually quite pleasant… Culturally, an unbeatable bargain! The Malays are practitioners of a very moderate Islam…. Plus, Kuala Lumpur is a very cool city, as cities go… While I was only in Malaysia for about eight days, I felt the same level of comfort (very high) that I've experienced in Thailand, Vietnam, and other countries in the region.

Tom I’d like to thank you for posting this. I’ll be the first to admit that I might have an ‘unfounded’ fear of visiting Muslim nations. Because someone (reasonable, responsible) like you has posted this, I find myself much more inclined to consider your post to be a true, first hand account. While I might still not choose to go to Malaysia, your positive experience causes me to think that I have ‘non-sense’ in my mind about this location.

Certainly, I have heard wonderful things about Kuala Lumpur (or KL as it is called by the travelers who have been there.)

That said, the Thai-Malay border is indeed a hot spot, and if I'm not mistaken, the problems are primarily on the Thai side of the border. I have not crossed through there on land, but I probably wouldn't hang around for too long, although my understanding is that the only ones really under threat are Thai nationals, by whom the Thai Muslims feel persecuted.

In Thailand, we read about the problems in southern Thailand on a daily basis. Someone is killed there almost every day, usually a monk, a child or a teacher is beheaded by a Muslim on a motorcycle driving by. One drives, and the passenger wields a machete and whacks off the head of the unsuspecting person as they are walking down a road. Or the monks in a Buddhist temple are killed and the temple is shattered.

The monks, teachers and children are targeted, because monks are spiritual leaders of the people, teachers teach children how to read and write, and if a child is killed, then many parents won’t send their children to school to learn.

It may be entirely true that the Thai nationals persecute or have prejudice against Muslims. It’s just that after the killing starts things get all mixed up. Buddhists have a very peaceful outlook on living, while radical Muslims consider them infidels, and well, you know what happens to infidels.

Yes, yes, after reading this on a daily basis for years, it has skewed my view in one direction. I admit this.

On a different note, it seems that a lot of posters seem to have quite a bit invested in whether or not you and your husband feel safe in Mexico.

I know. Go figure. My intent has been - not so much to prove anyone ‘wrong’ - but rather to offer an alternative first hand account of my experience. I thought that if someone is vacillating on whether or not to go to Mexico, perhaps my sharing of a positive alternative point of view would open their minds to trying Mexico for themselves.

You didn't really own Enron stock, did you?

Thanks for this humor! I laughed out loud when I read it…

Be well all ways,

Akaisha
Author, The Adventurer’s Guide to Early Retirement

 

[Martha]

So those of you who travel and live in Mexico, how do you evaluate the risk of a failed Mexico state? At least it is something that needs to be considered if you spend time there.

 

[RonBoyd]

the risk of a failed Mexico state?

Mexican Billionaire Invests in Times Company

Putting the pieces together...: South of the Border, Down Mexico Way

In any event, if Slim is coming to America, and I am only guessing at this point that he is, this is not a good sign for Mexico. It would mean that the game is up, and that the Mexican Kidnapping War is growing ever more dangerous and possibly reaching end stage. If the world's second richest man is wary, we'd all better be wary of Mexico's on-going war.

 

[haha]

Well Carlos has problems that the random middle class gringo would not have. He knows the country, he speaks Spanish, he looks Mexican, and he has armored cars, information networks and bodyguards. If he is leaving, I can understand.

BTW when I read that he has taken an important postion, a chokehold as it were, on NYT I figured there is only one reason- he wants a friendly, prestigous mouthpiece for his US operations. I didn't think of immigration becasue rich Mexicans have such a wonderful life in Mexico it normally takes a lot to make them leave.

ha

 

[RonBoyd]

it normally takes a lot to make them leave.

Exactly

 

[Billy]

Martha

So those of you who travel and live in Mexico, how do you evaluate the risk of a failed Mexico state? At least it is something that needs to be considered if you spend time there.

Well this isn’t the only forum that is discussing this topic. This topic is being hashed out with the locals from the Chapala Web Board:

I actually looked up this report and read it. It is NOT what the media are making it out to be.

They pay these guys to think "outside the box" and present scenarios to the military so they can make contingency plans. Otherwise, you have reporters shoving mics in a general's face saying "you never had a scenario planned for this??"

Some sensationalist dolts in the press grabbed it and ran with it.

what has been objected to by many, including myself is the irresponsible and biased reporting of the significance of it by D. Valdez at the El Paso Reporter.

Shelley has very nicely and succinctly summarized the feelings of many on this board in this statement.
¨Yes, interesting how the for profit media sold this like the sky was falling today. By omission, the media seems to be able to distort almost anything anymore.¨

Mexican newspapers have referred to this as an act of bad faith. I believe that would be entirely correct.

And

this ill-conceived article has created considerable panic amongst the residents here. It is very damaging to the image of Mexico, and is highly misleading to say the very least. Being a resident of this great country, I simply refuse to accept this type of yellow journalism, and have sent a communication to the journalist concerned.

Just adding more voices to the conversation...

But to answer your question directly, I believe if those who live here and travel here honestly thought it was a looming issue, they would vote with their feet and their dollar/loonie and move elsewhere or back home to the US or Canada. The biggest complaints here have to do with other issues like traffic or getting the plumber to arrive when he says he will or the quality of IMSS (Mexican Health Insurance).

Akaisha
Author, The Adventurer's Guide to Early Retirement