Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 01-17-2009, 12:44 PM   #61
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,385
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bestwifeever View Post
I don't have a dog in this hunt, but I don't think you are comparing apples to apples--what is the overall homicide rate in Mexico? What is the drug-related homicide rate in the US?
Not important when your goal is to spin.
__________________

__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 01-17-2009, 12:58 PM   #62
Moderator Emeritus
Bestwifeever's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 16,375
Quote:
Originally Posted by . . . Yrs to Go View Post
Agreed. But if your concern is about being a victim of drug related violence in Mexico (as articulated by the OP, see below), the relevant statistic is drug related violence in Mexico. The comparison to the US is only to give perspective.
Sorry, but if drug-related murder statistics are the basis for a decision, I don't think the drug-related murder rate in Mexico is at all relevant without a comparison to the drug-related murder rate in the United States (or another country that is being considered for retirement).

I wish I were in Mexico now, however! It's so cold here....
__________________

__________________
“Would you like an adventure now, or would you like to have your tea first?” J.M. Barrie, Peter Pan
Bestwifeever is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2009, 01:11 PM   #63
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Gone4Good's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bestwifeever View Post
Sorry, but if drug-related murder statistics are the basis for a decision, I don't think the drug-related murder rate in Mexico is at all relevant without a comparison to the drug-related murder rate in the United States (or another country that is being considered for retirement).
On the contrary, if I'm worried about an increase in drug related crime in Mexico, and I'm trying to make a decision about whether to go there, the drug related crime in Mexico is the only relevant statistic. I don't need to compare it to anything at all to make a decision. For example, on an average annual basis, 1 in every 20,000 Mexicans are murdered in drug related crime. Assuming every person in Mexico has an equal chance of being murdered by the drug cartels then someone spending a week in Mexico has a 1 in 1,074,142 chance of being murdered by drug violence.

Each person can decide for themselves whether a 1 in a million chance is high risk, or not.
__________________
Gone4Good is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2009, 03:18 PM   #64
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,408
Quote:
Originally Posted by . . . Yrs to Go View Post
On the contrary, if I'm worried about an increase in drug related crime in Mexico, and I'm trying to make a decision about whether to go there, the drug related crime in Mexico is the only relevant statistic. I don't need to compare it to anything at all to make a decision. For example, on an average annual basis, 1 in every 20,000 Mexicans are murdered in drug related crime. Assuming every person in Mexico has an equal chance of being murdered by the drug cartels then someone spending a week in Mexico has a 1 in 1,074,142 chance of being murdered by drug violence.

Each person can decide for themselves whether a 1 in a million chance is high risk, or not.
As an ex en ga neer - I don't do numbers.

Her Granddaughter is expecting twins around Mardis Gras this year - so if we find ourselves in New Orleans - having survived thirty of them pre Katrina - have some idea of what to avoid and precautions to take.

heh heh heh - Sooo - what do the locals do/do not and why - usually they are the first ones to ask.
__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2009, 04:24 PM   #65
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
free4now's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 1,225
I think I read a story that the number of westerners kidnapped in Mexico was only 36 per year. I'm a fan of putting things into context, and that number is significantly smaller than the number of people who get struck by lightning, much less car crashes. So it isn't anything I'd worry about.

You're much more likely to be undone by conventional random crime in mexico: theft, robbery, carjacking, etc.

Westerners being caught in the crossfire of rival drug lords is very rare, both here in the USA and in Mexico.
__________________
free4now is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2009, 06:42 PM   #66
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
BunsGettingFirm's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 1,502
Quote:
Originally Posted by . . . Yrs to Go View Post
As a follow-up point, I'll just note that we humans are pretty terrible judges of risk. We dramatically overestimate risks that are sensational in nature, but very seldom occur (like shark attacks, airplane crashes, terrorism or Mexican drug violence) and dramatically underestimate the mundane (like automobile accidents). There were 41,000 automobile related fatalities in the US in 2007. So your risk of dying in your car is 3 times greater than your risk of being murdered, either here in the US for any reason, or by the drug cartels in Mexico.

But automobile accidents don't generate big splashy headlines. And driving is a part of life. So we ignore the risks and, pedal to the metal, zip daily down the highway at high rates of speed with oncoming traffic, and certain death, just a few yards away. Mexico, on the other hand, is, for many of us, far away, foreign, out of our comfort zone, and therefore, risky.

But I suspect that for avid travelers like Billy & Akaisha, going to Mexico and similar places is a bit like getting in the car and zipping down the highway . . . just one of the risks of everyday life.
This is the same reason that Enron employees loaded up on Enron stock. The familiar just seems less risky.
__________________
BunsGettingFirm is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2009, 09:54 AM   #67
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
RonBoyd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 5,280
Quote:
Originally Posted by BunsGettingFirm View Post
Is Mexico the only Latin American country or 3rd world country you can consider retiring to?
I don't know about "retiring to" but here is some advice for traveling in/to "dangerous" countries:

elliott.org | Verboten vacations: 9 reasons forbidden is “in” this year

Quote:
“People who love to travel will take their chances,” says Glenn Strachan, a wireless communications consultant in Annapolis, Md. He’s been to several “forbidden” places, including everyone’s favorite no-no vacation hotspot, Cuba, as well as Vietnam and Cambodia when they were still closed to Americans.

“Had we been caught,” he says of his visit to Cambodia years ago, “we likely would have been killed.”
Just remember:

Quote:
Even if you decide to travel somewhere familiar — or at least government-sanctioned — there’s no guarantee you’ll come back alive.
and above all:

Quote:
ignorance is not necessarily bliss
__________________
"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
RonBoyd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2009, 11:16 AM   #68
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Worldwide
Posts: 913
RonBoyd
Quote:
I don't know about "retiring to" but here is some advice for traveling in/to "dangerous" countries:

elliott.org | Verboten vacations: 9 reasons forbidden is “in” this year

Quote:
The State Department publishes a list of travel warnings that shouldn’t be ignored. They range from Cote d’Ivoire, which is experiencing periodic episodes of political unrest and violence since a failed coup a few years ago, to the Philippines, where Americans are at risk from terrorist attacks.

The Philippines have over 7,000 islands in their archipelago, 4,000 of them inhabited. The threat of terrorism isn’t in all of them only the ones more southern, like Mindanao where the Muslims are making their views known. There are threats of terrorism in Thailand also, but only in the south where it is close to Malaysia. The Muslims have made their views known there also.

However, I have spoken to couples who have traveled all through Malaysia with no problem. Now, see, that’s a place that wouldn’t appeal to me for safety reasons… but then I have no first hand experience. But... I am not interested in getting first hand experience there.

Quote:
“I think that the biggest hurdles to traveling to a forbidden destination are the propaganda machine and the hostile, uninformed reactions of fellow Americans who really know nothing about the countries in question or about the laws regarding travel there,” says Julie Schwietert Collazo, the managing editor of Matador Travel.
I know, I know, she’s just ’some travel writer’ but at least she has first hand knowledge of an area. She’s not getting it from ’some newspaper story’.

Akaisha
Author, The Adventurer's Guide to Early Retirement
__________________
In 1991 Billy and Akaisha Kaderli retired at the age of 38. They have lived over 2 decades of this financially independent lifestyle, traveling the globe.
Billy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2009, 05:25 PM   #69
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Tucson
Posts: 118
Akaisha,

I think you and your husband are perhaps more adventurous than myself, so I want to report that my trip to Malaysia in December 2007 was actually quite pleasant. It's a nation of mixed ethnic groups. The dominant Malays, about 60% of the population as I recall, tend to be Muslim. There is also a very large Chinese presence, and a smaller Indian populace. It's the same ethnic mix as Singapore, but different ratios. As with Singapore, it felt like being in three countries at once. Culturally, an unbeatable bargain! The Malays are practitioners of a very moderate Islam. That said, the Thai-Malay border is indeed a hot spot, and if I'm not mistaken, the problems are primarily on the Thai side of the border. I have not crossed through there on land, but I probably wouldn't hang around for too long, although my understanding is that the only ones really under threat are Thai nationals, by whom the Thai Muslims feel persecuted.

Plus, Kuala Lumpur is a very cool city, as cities go. Friendly, progressive, and very safe. While there I was invited by two local ladies for coffee, then to their home for lunch, where I visited with their extended family. While I was only in Malaysia for about eight days, I felt the same level of comfort (very high) that I've experienced in Thailand, Vietnam, and other countries in the region.

On a different note, it seems that a lot of posters seem to have quite a bit invested in whether or not you and your husband feel safe in Mexico. You didn't really own Enron stock, did you?

Tom
__________________
tomintucson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2009, 09:26 AM   #70
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Worldwide
Posts: 913
Tomintucson
Quote:
I think you and your husband are perhaps more adventurous than myself, so I want to report that my trip to Malaysia in December 2007 was actually quite pleasant… Culturally, an unbeatable bargain! The Malays are practitioners of a very moderate Islam…. Plus, Kuala Lumpur is a very cool city, as cities go… While I was only in Malaysia for about eight days, I felt the same level of comfort (very high) that I've experienced in Thailand, Vietnam, and other countries in the region.
Tom I’d like to thank you for posting this. I’ll be the first to admit that I might have an ‘unfounded’ fear of visiting Muslim nations. Because someone (reasonable, responsible) like you has posted this, I find myself much more inclined to consider your post to be a true, first hand account. While I might still not choose to go to Malaysia, your positive experience causes me to think that I have ‘non-sense’ in my mind about this location.

Certainly, I have heard wonderful things about Kuala Lumpur (or KL as it is called by the travelers who have been there.)

Quote:
That said, the Thai-Malay border is indeed a hot spot, and if I'm not mistaken, the problems are primarily on the Thai side of the border. I have not crossed through there on land, but I probably wouldn't hang around for too long, although my understanding is that the only ones really under threat are Thai nationals, by whom the Thai Muslims feel persecuted.
In Thailand, we read about the problems in southern Thailand on a daily basis. Someone is killed there almost every day, usually a monk, a child or a teacher is beheaded by a Muslim on a motorcycle driving by. One drives, and the passenger wields a machete and whacks off the head of the unsuspecting person as they are walking down a road. Or the monks in a Buddhist temple are killed and the temple is shattered.

The monks, teachers and children are targeted, because monks are spiritual leaders of the people, teachers teach children how to read and write, and if a child is killed, then many parents won’t send their children to school to learn.

It may be entirely true that the Thai nationals persecute or have prejudice against Muslims. It’s just that after the killing starts things get all mixed up. Buddhists have a very peaceful outlook on living, while radical Muslims consider them infidels, and well, you know what happens to infidels.

Yes, yes, after reading this on a daily basis for years, it has skewed my view in one direction. I admit this.

Quote:
On a different note, it seems that a lot of posters seem to have quite a bit invested in whether or not you and your husband feel safe in Mexico.
I know. Go figure. My intent has been - not so much to prove anyone ‘wrong’ - but rather to offer an alternative first hand account of my experience. I thought that if someone is vacillating on whether or not to go to Mexico, perhaps my sharing of a positive alternative point of view would open their minds to trying Mexico for themselves.

Quote:
You didn't really own Enron stock, did you?
Thanks for this humor! I laughed out loud when I read it…

Be well all ways,

Akaisha
Author, The Adventurer’s Guide to Early Retirement
__________________
In 1991 Billy and Akaisha Kaderli retired at the age of 38. They have lived over 2 decades of this financially independent lifestyle, traveling the globe.
Billy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2009, 09:50 AM   #71
Moderator Emeritus
Martha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: minnesota
Posts: 13,212
So those of you who travel and live in Mexico, how do you evaluate the risk of a failed Mexico state? At least it is something that needs to be considered if you spend time there.
__________________
.


No more lawyer stuff, no more political stuff, so no more CYA

Martha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2009, 10:30 AM   #72
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
RonBoyd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 5,280
Quote:
Originally Posted by Martha View Post
the risk of a failed Mexico state?
Mexican Billionaire Invests in Times Company

Putting the pieces together...: South of the Border, Down Mexico Way

Quote:
In any event, if Slim is coming to America, and I am only guessing at this point that he is, this is not a good sign for Mexico. It would mean that the game is up, and that the Mexican Kidnapping War is growing ever more dangerous and possibly reaching end stage. If the world's second richest man is wary, we'd all better be wary of Mexico's on-going war.
__________________
"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
RonBoyd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2009, 01:21 PM   #73
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,385
Well Carlos has problems that the random middle class gringo would not have. He knows the country, he speaks Spanish, he looks Mexican, and he has armored cars, information networks and bodyguards. If he is leaving, I can understand.

BTW when I read that he has taken an important postion, a chokehold as it were, on NYT I figured there is only one reason- he wants a friendly, prestigous mouthpiece for his US operations. I didn't think of immigration becasue rich Mexicans have such a wonderful life in Mexico it normally takes a lot to make them leave.

ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2009, 01:26 PM   #74
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
RonBoyd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 5,280
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
it normally takes a lot to make them leave.
Exactly
__________________
"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
RonBoyd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2009, 04:42 PM   #75
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Worldwide
Posts: 913
Martha
Quote:
So those of you who travel and live in Mexico, how do you evaluate the risk of a failed Mexico state? At least it is something that needs to be considered if you spend time there.
Well this isn’t the only forum that is discussing this topic. This topic is being hashed out with the locals from the Chapala Web Board:

Quote:
I actually looked up this report and read it. It is NOT what the media are making it out to be.

They pay these guys to think "outside the box" and present scenarios to the military so they can make contingency plans. Otherwise, you have reporters shoving mics in a general's face saying "you never had a scenario planned for this??"

Some sensationalist dolts in the press grabbed it and ran with it.

Quote:
what has been objected to by many, including myself is the irresponsible and biased reporting of the significance of it by D. Valdez at the El Paso Reporter.
Quote:

Shelley has very nicely and succinctly summarized the feelings of many on this board in this statement.
¨Yes, interesting how the for profit media sold this like the sky was falling today. By omission, the media seems to be able to distort almost anything anymore.¨
Quote:
Mexican newspapers have referred to this as an act of bad faith. I believe that would be entirely correct.
And

Quote:
this ill-conceived article has created considerable panic amongst the residents here. It is very damaging to the image of Mexico, and is highly misleading to say the very least. Being a resident of this great country, I simply refuse to accept this type of yellow journalism, and have sent a communication to the journalist concerned.
Quote:
Just adding more voices to the conversation...

But to answer your question directly, I believe if those who live here and travel here honestly thought it was a looming issue, they would vote with their feet and their dollar/loonie and move elsewhere or back home to the US or Canada. The biggest complaints here have to do with other issues like traffic or getting the plumber to arrive when he says he will or the quality of IMSS (Mexican Health Insurance).

Akaisha
Author, The Adventurer's Guide to Early Retirement


__________________
In 1991 Billy and Akaisha Kaderli retired at the age of 38. They have lived over 2 decades of this financially independent lifestyle, traveling the globe.
Billy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2009, 01:43 PM   #76
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 886
I guess Tijuana is more dangerous than Baghdad.

Tijuana off-limits to U.S. Marines - USATODAY.com

While it's probably wise to stay away from certain areas, I'm sure Mexico is a fine destination.

Heck, if people are so scared, never go to New Orleans. It ranks third of the Top 5 Murder Captials in the world behind only Caracas, Venezuela and Cape Town, South Africa.

No surprise Caracas named 'murder capital of world' - CNN.com
__________________

Trek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2009, 01:49 PM   #77
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,385
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trek View Post
Heck, if people are so scared, never go to New Orleans. It ranks third of the Top 5 Murder Captials
That is definitely a thought to consider. The only place that I have been subjected to an attempted mugging since I was about 16 was good ol' NO.

I ran like hell and went over the back fence into Charity Hospital.

Few places are dangerous if you stay at the Hilton pool, but it can go downhill fast in other parts of town.

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2009, 02:51 PM   #78
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,408
New Orleans again next month - her Grand Daughter is having twins.

But I don't plan on hanging out at some of the fun places when I lived there thirty yrs up until Katrina.

heh heh heh -
__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2009, 03:05 PM   #79
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
RonBoyd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 5,280
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trek View Post
Heck, if people are so scared, never go to New Orleans. It ranks third of the Top 5 Murder Captials in the world behind only Caracas, Venezuela and Cape Town, South Africa.
Oh! Don't tell me. We are leaving, in a week or so, to explore the south east part of Texas and then into Louisiana. NO is on the schedule for, at least, a couple of days.

Perhaps I should have bars installed on the RV's windows.
__________________
"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
RonBoyd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2009, 03:08 PM   #80
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 886
Quote:
Originally Posted by RonBoyd View Post
Oh! Don't tell me. We are leaving, in a week or so, to explore the south east part of Texas and then into Louisiana. NO is on the schedule for, at least, a couple of days.

Perhaps I should have bars installed on the RV's windows.
Swing down to Mexico instead, it's safer.
__________________

__________________

Trek is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Humans Crave Violence Just Like Sex Wags Other topics 8 01-20-2008 10:59 AM
Iraqi Violence is Down samclem Other topics 14 12-21-2007 07:37 PM
Mexico Kitty Life after FIRE 24 09-14-2007 07:57 PM
Cities sue gangs in bid to stop violence CyclingInvestor Other topics 0 07-29-2007 07:40 PM
Now Bush wants a summit on school gun violence next week, Geesh, newguy88 Other topics 26 10-06-2006 05:09 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:42 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.