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Old 10-22-2010, 02:22 PM   #21
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I'm not sure if I can go along with this. I think savers are still saving, sucking it in even tighter.
At least those who don't have a rock-solid income stream which they don't fear losing.

You're describing my household situation pretty well here -- we're still saving as much as before (maybe even more), because we're spending less since I have no pretense of job security, and losing a job in this market could mean a year or two of searching... assuming you don't give up completely.

Sure, if I had rock-solid job security it would be easier to "live for today" more than I do, or if I were retired and had what I considered to be a secure COLA'd income stream the same would be true as well. But in this economy, if you don't have those things, even the savers have reason to think they need to save even more.
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Old 10-22-2010, 02:33 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by harley View Post
I'm not sure if I can go along with this. I think savers are still saving, sucking it in even tighter. And spenders just don't know how to not be spenders, so they are going even deeper into debt, or at least not adjusting their spending in ways that most of us tightwads would see as positive. My evidence is also anecdotal, based on a couple of things like my buddy who has very little in the wau of retirement savings blowing this year's bonus on a new motorcycle. Oh well, at least he got a bonus.
I think most of the savers in the population at large aren't the hard core LBYM'ers that we are here at this forum. The savers still spend money, just they spend less than 100% of their income (ie don't incur consumer debt to finance their spending). They still have disposable income to spend on travel if they want.

The spenders had a good run, but are now like drunks cut off at the bar. Banks aren't refinancing their houses. Credit cards are harder to get and credit lines are lower. They don't have easy credit and inflating house prices enabling their heavy spending habits. It isn't that they choose to spend a lot less, as much as they have no other choice but to spend less. When the credit cards are maxed out, you can't refinance, and all your cash goes towards debt service and keeping the repo/foreclosure man away, you aren't able to spend much on discretionary items.

Clearly these are two polar opposites and plenty of folks fall in between. But for a lot of heavy spenders, they are waking up to the reality that they just can't spend anymore money because they are cut off.
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Old 10-22-2010, 02:43 PM   #23
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Clearly these are two polar opposites and plenty of folks fall in between. But for a lot of heavy spenders, they are waking up to the reality that they just can't spend anymore money because they are cut off.
Certainly for the out-of-control borrowers and spenders, the party's beyond over.

But even a lot of hard-core, heavy savers aren't convinced they are going to be able to weather the entirety of this economic storm without cutting back. Yes, the worst-case outcome for the spenders will be a lot worse than for the savers, but savers by their nature tend to be economically cautious and conservative about their spending habits, and a bad economy could convince them that they can forego luxuries for a couple years until they are feeling more secure about the future again.

So in reality, the only "what me worry" camp I see left are those with very secure and sufficient income streams, those who don't feel the need to accumulate enough cash to survive the economic equivalent of a nuclear event.
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Old 10-22-2010, 02:57 PM   #24
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Yes, the worst-case outcome for the spenders will be a lot worse than for the savers, but savers by their nature tend to be economically cautious and conservative about their spending habits, and a bad economy could convince them that they can forego luxuries for a couple years until they are feeling more secure about the future again.
I agree - the difference is in the interpretation. Most people have been scared and have been saving for 2-3 years now. They have foregone the luxuries to some extent. They have been saving and fortifying the emergency fund. But a lot of people are getting cabin fever, or realizing that this is the new reality. They can either keep saving more and more, or just get back to living life.

Most folks don't plan and save like we do here. They see themselves getting older, their kids growing up, and they want to experience things and buy things now for themselves and for their children.
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Old 10-22-2010, 06:08 PM   #25
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By posting right after Ha's linked article, I caused an inference that the Bloomberd article claimed that a new RV record sales was reached. That is not true at all. The author simply pointed out that RV sales had rebounded from a low. I should add that although Thor sales went up 50% from its low, a contribution factor may be that many of its competitors had gone bankrupt. I don't think anyone would expect a new sales record to be reached anytime soon, if ever.

This RV sales number may be another interesting data point for the dirty market timers some portfolio rebalancers to consider in their selling rebalance criteria.

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These types of statistics (lies, damn lies, and...) drive me nuts! So, 51% over last year. Was last year down 20% from the year before? Or 200%? Where's the 10 year rolling average? Aargh!
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It could be that, or that folks who gave up their homes need a place to live, and had enough credit to get an RV. Makes it much tought to repo!
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Most RVs cost more than my house...
The article did point out that recent RV sales tended to be of the travel trailer types, which cost less than motor homes.
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Old 10-23-2010, 01:52 PM   #26
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Well as you know, The Jones Act requires foreign operated vessels carrying US passengers between US ports to make at least one stop at a "distant" port.

Therefore cruises will make at least one stop in Canada before getting to Alaska. Usually they stop at Victoria Island.
Victoria Island is in the high arctic. The city of Victoria on Vancouver Island is one port, but as my links illustrated, there are others such as Nanaimo, Campbell River, and even Vancouver. Customs clearance for day trippers is much simpler.
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