Those Crazy Changing Flight Prices!!

[Dash man]

Yesterday I bought two round trip tickets for a nonstop cross country flight to visit our son, DIL and grandson. Prices seemed unchanged over the few days I looked, so I just booked it. Treated ourselves to First Class since the last time we did this resulted in a major back ache. Nice to have options, but the price wasn't as bad as I expected.

 

[audreyh1]

Interesting - at midnight this morning I got an email from Google Flights warning me of a 45% fare increase to $521 expected in 23 hours on one of my tracked flights. It's the blue one below, currently at $348. In the meantime you can see there have been several crazy price fluctuations over the past 8 to 10 days.

So we'll see if their prediction comes true!

Well sure enough, E-mail at 5:30 this morning informed me that prices on all UA flights jumped to $521, and $513 on the AA flight.

 

[Sojourner]

Interesting - at midnight this morning I got an email from Google Flights warning me of a 45% fare increase to $521 expected in 23 hours on one of my tracked flights. It's the blue one below, currently at $348. In the meantime you can see there have been several crazy price fluctuations over the past 8 to 10 days.

I'd like to know the underlying reasons why the pricing for air fares varies so dramatically and frequently. Obviously, the airlines have determined that doing it this way results in higher margins for them, but still... why would that be? I can't think of any other widely purchased commodity or service that has such frequent, enormous, seemingly random price swings. Anyone have any insights into why this chaotic pricing model is used by the airlines?

 

[ivinsfan]

Well sure enough, E-mail at 5:30 this morning informed me that prices on all UA flights jumped to $521, and $513 on the AA flight.

So doesn't that put the prices inside the 21 days window, could that be what google flights was basing the increase notification on?

 

[audreyh1]

So doesn't that put the prices inside the 21 days window, could that be what google flights was basing the increase notification on?

Yes, but it happened at the 18 day mark, not the 21 day mark which really surprised me. I expected this jump several days ago.

 

[ivinsfan]

Yes, but it happened at the 18 day mark, not the 21 day mark which really surprised me. I expected this jump several days ago.

and sometimes it's the 14 day mark, but to safe I always try and buy before 21 days out just in case.

 

[audreyh1]

and sometimes it's the 14 day mark, but to safe I always try and buy before 21 days out just in case.

Oh same here! I usually buy around the 30 day mark - especially if the flights look like they are filling up which means the bargain seats will disappear sooner than 21 days. This time the price went up for about a week right after I purchased, then dropped to $10 below where I bought for a few days - well see-sawed up and down like crazy.

Oh, there's often another price jump up at the 14 day mark.

 

[Texas Proud]

I'd like to know the underlying reasons why the pricing for air fares varies so dramatically and frequently. Obviously, the airlines have determined that doing it this way results in higher margins for them, but still... why would that be? I can't think of any other widely purchased commodity or service that has such frequent, enormous, seemingly random price swings. Anyone have any insights into why this chaotic pricing model is used by the airlines?

Because once the plane takes off with an empty seat you lost money....

They need to do everything they can to fill up the plane... and discounting tickets is an easy way to do that....

You also might ask.... what about business travelers who book late.... well, since they are paying full price it is easier to kick a cheap ticket off and put them on... There was one time I had to fly between Houston and Dallas... booked a ticket that was taking off in less than 2 hours... (IIRC, it was about 1 hour... this before all the new security measures)... got to the airport and was put on the plane...


BTW, there is a minimum cost of flying someone even if the plane is going... you need extra fuel and drinks etc..... I just do not know what it is....

 

[Sojourner]

Because once the plane takes off with an empty seat you lost money....

They need to do everything they can to fill up the plane... and discounting tickets is an easy way to do that....

You also might ask.... what about business travelers who book late.... well, since they are paying full price it is easier to kick a cheap ticket off and put them on... There was one time I had to fly between Houston and Dallas... booked a ticket that was taking off in less than 2 hours... (IIRC, it was about 1 hour... this before all the new security measures)... got to the airport and was put on the plane...

BTW, there is a minimum cost of flying someone even if the plane is going... you need extra fuel and drinks etc..... I just do not know what it is....

OK, that makes sense to a degree, but why wouldn't basically the same principles apply to pricing for hotel rooms? Once the night passes and a hotel room sits empty, the hotel lost money (well, didn't make the optimum amount). Yet I don't think prices for hotel rooms vary so dramatically and frequently and chaotically as do flight prices. Or am I missing something in this analogy that makes it flawed somehow?

 

[Gotadimple]

Yet I don't think prices for hotel rooms vary so dramatically and frequently and chaotically as do flight prices. Or am I missing something in this analogy that makes it flawed somehow?

All the airlines use databases that analyze travel patterns and seats sold. As seats are purchased/cancelled, they adjust the fare classes, that results in pricing changes.

They try to match pricing to demand, while watching what the competition is doing. What this has done short-term is cause pricing fluctuations. Long-term it has driven some carriers into bankruptcy.

- Rita

 

[audreyh1]

OK, that makes sense to a degree, but why wouldn't basically the same principles apply to pricing for hotel rooms? Once the night passes and a hotel room sits empty, the hotel lost money (well, didn't make the optimum amount). Yet I don't think prices for hotel rooms vary so dramatically and frequently and chaotically as do flight prices. Or am I missing something in this analogy that makes it flawed somehow?

There are some differences. They can choose or not to fly a plane. The hotel sits there 24 hours. Obviously the industries have come up with different pricing schemes. Perhaps the hotel overhead is not nearly as high as the airline.

 

[Texas Proud]

OK, that makes sense to a degree, but why wouldn't basically the same principles apply to pricing for hotel rooms? Once the night passes and a hotel room sits empty, the hotel lost money (well, didn't make the optimum amount). Yet I don't think prices for hotel rooms vary so dramatically and frequently and chaotically as do flight prices. Or am I missing something in this analogy that makes it flawed somehow?

Hotels will change prices.... based on the season and demand... take a look at prices of hotel when a super bowl or other major event comes to town... but, they just do not try and fill them up all the time... from what I read, they have priced to make money at 80% capacity.... also, people are much more likely to wait to the bitter end for a hotel as it is MUCH easier to go next door, where flights are not as numerous.... if you miss a flight you are SOL, but 'miss' a hotel there are still lots of options...

It has not happened recently, but I used to get a break on some hotels when I showed up at night asking about a room... I would usually get a price and be able to talk them down a bit... because I was willing to walk out the door.... now, with DW and kids we have to book a room before we even go so I do not know if they will deal or not now....

 

[meierlde]

I'd like to know the underlying reasons why the pricing for air fares varies so dramatically and frequently. Obviously, the airlines have determined that doing it this way results in higher margins for them, but still... why would that be? I can't think of any other widely purchased commodity or service that has such frequent, enormous, seemingly random price swings. Anyone have any insights into why this chaotic pricing model is used by the airlines?

It is very much like the hotel business where the business estimates the demand and figures out what costs the demand will bear, and also how many seats to hold for late full fare customers. (The most desirable customers)
As an example I was checking on motels about a month out and found a difference of 100 per night between 1 weekend and the next one (neither was explicitly a holiday weekend)

 

[audreyh1]

Boy, I tell you! I can no longer navigate United.com flight reservations user interface.

I used to search the flights on Google Flights, but then manually find it again on United's site just to see if there were any options overlooked.

Now I can't even find the flights Google Flights finds for me!

Thank goodness Google Flights can send my tracked flights over to United for me. That works perfectly. I'm so glad that I save (track) a flight of interest once I discover it, because then it's super easy to book when I'm ready.

I'm baffled that I can't do the same thing on my own through the UI interface, but it acts as if none of the options Google Flights shows me exist!

 

[CyclingInvestor]

I find good last minute deals regularly to/from LAX. $49 DEN->LAX 1 way non-stop (United) on 5 day notice, so I grabbed it, then set up an Amtrak LAX->DEN ride (leaving in 3 hours). Last year got a similar last minute LAX->Buffalo trip for $90, then Amtrak'ed back.

 

[Lsbcal]

Boy, I tell you! I can no longer navigate United.com flight reservations user interface.

I used to search the flights on Google Flights, but then manually find it again on United's site just to see if there were any options overlooked.

Now I can't even find the flights Google Flights finds for me!

Thank goodness Google Flights can send my tracked flights over to United for me. That works perfectly. I'm so glad that I save (track) a flight of interest once I discover it, because then it's super easy to book when I'm ready.

I'm baffled that I can't do the same thing on my own through the UI interface, but it acts as if none of the options Google Flights shows me exist!

Recently we booked a flight on United. First used Google Flights for price comparison. Then found that the United price was for Basic Economy which does not offer advanced seating choices. In fact, as I recall one had to take assigned seats. So kind of a bad deal for us. We went with the United seats but in Economy.

I'm not sure how well Google tracks pricing of like kind deals if this sort of thing happens often. Should I blame Google or United?

 

[audreyh1]

Recently we booked a flight on United. First used Google Flights for price comparison. Then found that the United price was for Basic Economy which does not offer advanced seating choices. In fact, as I recall one had to take assigned seats. So kind of a bad deal for us. We went with the United seats but in Economy.

I'm not sure how well Google tracks pricing of like kind deals if this sort of thing happens often. Should I blame Google or United?

Right, google flights defaults to basic economy now as we discovered for our Xmas flights, and the only clue was a sign indicating restricted luggage.

However, as soon as Google sent me over to the United site to book the tickets United made it clear that it was for basic economy and had other options laid out, which made it easy to choose regular economy.

But it did make comparison shopping tough although I expect the American flights were their version of basic economy too.

 

[Scrapr]

On the initial screen @ Google Flights you can pick the class of seating & number of flyers

You want it should default to Business Class? (LOL)

 

[DrRoy]

This time the price went up for about a week right after I purchased, then dropped to $10 below where I bought for a few days - well see-sawed up and down like crazy.

This stuff on airfares drives me crazy. I never know when to buy the tickets. It was so easy when Megacorp paid for it.

 

[marko]

Just yesterday I was buying tickets for a friend coming down to see us in Fort Lauderdale from Boston.
JetBlue was $359 for coach one way. Delta was $292 for First Class. Go figure!

Delta coach was about $134 but I figured as I was already 'in' for $359 we went for FC.

 

[marko]

This stuff on airfares drives me crazy. I never know when to buy the tickets. It was so easy when Megacorp paid for it.

+1.
I racked up over 4,000,000 airmiles on the company dime. And used every one of those miles for personal use!

NWA used to have a deal where if you bought First from US to Europe (about $4K) you could continue with an 'around the world' ticket for short money.

So, if I had business in Amsterdam but needed to go to Korea the next week, I could go from Boston to Amsterdam and on to Korea for about $800 more. Sort of a free trip and a shorter route than going back home first. For $800 I could go to Korea/Japan for a minor issue rather than needing to justify another $5K ticket.

 

[Winemaker]

What is difference between basic economy and regular economy? Milk crate or 1/2 inch padded seat? One $50 bag that you get to sit on?

 

[audreyh1]

On the initial screen @ Google Flights you can pick the class of seating & number of flyers

You want it should default to Business Class? (LOL)

No, I would like them to give me the option of comparing non-basic economy prices. Some search engines reportedly do this now.

 

[audreyh1]

What is difference between basic economy and regular economy? Milk crate or 1/2 inch padded seat? One $50 bag that you get to sit on?

Only one carry on that must fit under seat, not allowed to use overhead storage. Can’t pick seats - they are assigned at the last minute. Can’t upgrade to economy plus. Last to board - I guess that’s when they also make sure you meet the carryon restrictions. No accrual of reward miles.

It was targeted toward the infrequent fliers who are going for cheapest fares and use budget airlines, and don’t care about reward miles/customer status, but it’s made things a real pain for the rest of us. The price difference is usually $20-40.

 

[Scrapr]

No, I would like them to give me the option of comparing non-basic economy prices. Some search engines reportedly do this now.

my initial screen shows a drop down to select Economy/Premium Economy/Business & First

I agree it would be nice to be able to set a default to whichever level you typically fly. After I accidently booked Mrs Scrapr in 1st for a long flight I am afraid I am stuck now