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Old 11-01-2008, 11:56 AM   #41
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those CDS derivatives that have been oversold with inadequate reserves and used as speculative side bets (by people who do not own the securities)... have caused many of us great harm.
I agree with you about the inadequate reserves. However, there is nothing inherently wrong with "speculative side bets". They go on in all of the futures markets (including the equity & Treasury markets) and add a source of liquidity for the hedgers.

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Old 11-01-2008, 12:20 PM   #42
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It seems to me that we don't want to try to make sure that nobody loses money or no bubble ever develops again. That's too much to expect.

We should try to do something that reduces the chances of "complete meltdown of the financial system".

From what I can see, "financial meltdowns" happen when we get a chain reaction of bank failures. Banks are inter-connected, so when one fails, it can take others down.

We figured this out in the '30s and put in a regulatory system that seems to have worked. The problem is that "nonbanks" started doing banking, and they didn't have to comply with the normal regulations. So I don't think it's a matter of inventing a new system, just being sure that the existing system gets applied to everyone that should be included.

To clarify, I'm thnking that "banking" means "borrowing money from one party in order to lend it to another". If B borrows from A and lends to C, then B is a "bank". B adds economic value by protecting A from the credit and liquidity risks that A would assume if he were lending directly to C. B puts his capital on the line to protect A from the occaisional bad news.

Bank regulation focuses on B's capital - is it adequate to cover the risks that B is taking? Audrey had an excellent source that shows how we decided that we could trust the really big players to decide for themselves how much capital they needed. I think this is the one thing we need to change.

The New York Times > Log In

(The link looks funny, but it worked for me. The headline is "Agency’s ’04 Rule Let Banks Pile Up New Debt".)
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Old 11-02-2008, 02:18 AM   #43
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...
Maybe we need some regulation such that ANY use of margin or leverage includes some standardized disclosure of the risk. With examples that anyone could understand. And yes, this would include home mortgages. I find it simply amazing that a pretty large % of the population could probably point to the use of 10:1 margin in the stock market in the 1920's as one of the causes of the Great Depression (or at least understand it when explained to them), but most of those people wouldn't think of their 10% down home mortgage as being in a similar class.
...
-ERD50
So you agree. We need some regs.
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Old 11-02-2008, 02:29 AM   #44
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First you say this
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I do not want to over simplify or generalize
Then you say

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So you agree. We need some regs.
Isn't that an oxymoron?

Saying that there must either be regs or no regs isn't just a tad bit of over simplification or generalization?
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Old 11-02-2008, 10:35 AM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50
...
Maybe we need some regulation such that ANY use of margin or leverage includes some standardized disclosure of the risk.
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Originally Posted by chinaco View Post
So you agree. We need some regs.
chinaco, in your reply to this post:

http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...1&postcount=32

you suggested that I lighten up. Good suggestion, I'm trying. So, please go back and re-read that post. It was the "all-or-nothing" words being out in my mouth by some of you that got me worked up in the first place. It's not all or nothing - OK?

So, are you going to share with us your vision of how we are to be regulated, or are you just going to complain? And to be fair, it's OK if you cannot formulate a solution - I think it's OK for people to complain about something, even if they don't know how to fix it. But, if you have no suggestions for a fix, I won't bother discussing that line of thought with you, I'll just let you complain.


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Old 11-02-2008, 08:40 PM   #46
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Even if you come up with a good set of "white lines" for CDS derivatives, that leaves an infinite number of possibilities for other scams. I've said it before, the scammers can react faster than the law.
But the major problem with CDS and even sub-prime mortgage exposure didn't have much to do with any "scams" or "scammers". While this is more clear in CDS it is still true for both.

Part of the problem was a philosophy that said "profit seeking enterprises are always best suited to look after their own interests." So by that rationale financial institutions were given free reign to do pretty much whatever they wanted because the philosophy said that they'd be better at it then anyone else. As it turned out, though, these profit seeking enterprises were generally more concerned with garnering profit for themselves today and a bit less concerned about the longer-term impact of either excessive exposures to sub-prime or to their CDS counterparties. Their failure to self regulate is central to the problem we're facing today.

Two examples are illustrative:
1) Broker dealers actively lobbied to prevent a central counterparty clearing house for CDS contracts. Making markets in non-transparent, over-the-counter derivatives was so lucrative that banks were willing to accept all of the counterparty credit risk for these trades. But instead of self regulating those exposures as the "philosophy" assumed they would, the banks instead gorged on the short-term profits. And with each afraid to concede market share to another, they raced to the bottom creating huge systemic risks in their wake. The result was a structure that rendered almost any large commercial bank, investment bank, or insurance company "too big to fail".

So as it turns out, the unwillingnes of financial institutions to regulate themselves combined with a misplaced faith that they would, created a situation requiring much greater government intervention and regulation than would have been true otherwise. Congratulations.

2) Commercial banks created "Structured Investment Vehicles" (the infamous "SIVs", otherwise knows as off balance sheet financings) to circumvent capital adequacy requirements so they could incur MORE exposure to sub-prime mortgages. This is clearly a case of financial institutions NOT self-regulating, but rather actively seeking ways to assume even more risk then was prudent. It is also another nail in the coffin of the "Fannie & Freddie caused it all" argument. Had the commercial banks not attempted to circumvent their lending regulations, or had regulators consolidated the SIV structures, the impact of the sub-prime mess would have been less.

The moral of this particular story is that financial institutions can not be expected to completely self regulate. We tried that and it nearly caused the full scale collapse of the free-market system. So now we know that tighter governmental limits on leverage and counterparty exposure for a wide range of financial institutions are clearly necessary to prevent this from happening again.

I tend to agree with Independent's thought that a larger number of firms need to be brought under the regulatory umbrella and subject to capital requirements but that list is pretty extensive. For starters it includes (in addition to commercial banks) investment banks, insurance companies, the financing arms of industrials (GMAC, GE Finance, etc.), hedge funds, and potentially pension & mutual funds. The shadow banking system is large.
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Old 12-31-2008, 12:14 AM   #47
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I have always been a big Clinton supporter but he signed that Commodities Futures Modernization Act into law and he was one of the smartest guy I knew in office. What the hell happened? How could they not know that terms like bucket shops in the act meant that they were going to hide what was going on from us.
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Old 12-31-2008, 03:44 PM   #48
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I have always been a big Clinton supporter but he signed that Commodities Futures Modernization Act into law and he was one of the smartest guy I knew in office. What the hell happened? How could they not know that terms like bucket shops in the act meant that they were going to hide what was going on from us.
He not only signed it into law, but recently defended doing so........
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