New Car Sales - Maybe JQPublic is smarter than we think?

[ERD50]

Just read this in the Tribune:

Sales of 4 cylinder cars is way up. Hybrids not increasing so much. Why - it's simple. For most people, the extra cost of the hybrid simply is not a good return on their $.

Hybrids losing out to four-cylinders

Despite the increasing popularity of Toyota's Prius, hybrids made up only 3% of the overall market for new cars last year. The sales gap between the relatively new technology and the smallest conventional engines is actually growing.
"For now, the easiest, cheapest way for new-car shoppers to get better mileage is to choose a model with a conventional four-cylinder engine. And they are," says Jason Rothkop, a J.D. Power and Associates analyst.

S&P says that, over the past three years, vehicles equipped with V8s saw their U.S. market share drop to 18% from 28%.

-ERD50

[Johnphx]

I agree completely.

Any gas savings that one hopes to realize (and for some of these prius owners I question the logic of buying a hybrid and then zooming past me at 75 mph on the freeway) is lost to the premium paid on the hybrids currently being sold.

It is FAR more economical it seems to me to buy a small 4-cylinder and then drive conservatively.

The only thing I wish was that cars got better mileage overall. The current bar seems to be set WAY too low at 30 mpg. I already get 29-30 mpg from my 1994 6-cylinder mustang. If I am going to go out and buy another car, I want at least 40 mpg to make it worth the jump.

Anyone here drive a car that gets that kind of mileage that they would recommend? I have been considering looking for a new(er) car since mine is closing in on 200k and I would like better mileage.

[Texas Proud]

John,

That is one of the problems I have also.... say I want to buy an Accord or Camry... the 4 cyl is only a couple of mpgs better than the 6... and from what they say not much better than 30...

I have an Acura TL that gets 29 hwy and about 24-25 overall... why would I want to go 4 cyl for only 26-27 overall

To get high mileage, you have to go to the real small engine civic or corolla... or even smaller fit etc... not the size car I want...

And I can say that I would like a small SUV next.. like the RAV 4 to medium like the new Forester.... then it drops big time...

Now, I have heard that some are coming out with some diesels in the next few years that DO get 40 mpgs.... I will wait for a bit...

[2good]

Don't count on Diesel cars. They get better mileage but cost more initially. And diesel fuel is more expensive (at least at the moment).

[Johnphx]

Originally Posted by Texas Proud

John,
Now, I have heard that some are coming out with some diesels in the next few years that DO get 40 mpgs.... I will wait for a bit...

Recently however, diesel has been running up faster than regular.

Its over $4 per gallon here.

[TromboneAl]

It would be refreshing if J.Q. Public were wising up, but I think there's probably a different explanation.

Your title implies the car purchaser is thinking:

"When I look at the miles I drive per year, and the improvement I'd get with a Prius, it would be years, if ever, before I'd get a payback on my investment. It makes more sense to buy a cheap 4 cylinder car."

But here is what the car purchaser is thinking:

"I can't afford a Prius."

[newguy88]

Public all could be driving the likes of a honda fit/ civic carolla, all get close to 40 mpg on the highway all cost less than 18K new.

My 05 camry is a 5 speed 4cyl baby made in japan and gets 35 on the highway and 31 city. Best darn vehicle I have ever owned.

Hybrids are another marketing tool like they did to americans with the SUV!!! Again why would you spend 26K on a prius instead of 18 on new desigh 09 Carolla?? Think about the cost of replacing the batteries at say 150K! Carolla mileage 29 37 prius 40 45 It would take a long time to make up the cost of gasoline.

Oh I paid 18,200 NEW for my 05 camry back in the summer of 05 before gasoline prices jumped from katrina and everything else.

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by TromboneAl

But here is what the car purchaser is thinking:

"I can't afford a Prius."

True, but it's almost the same thing. I agree, they might not make the full spreadsheet analysis, but it's pretty easy to get a gut level feeling that $5,000 will buy a lot of gas.


BTW, I'm not anti-hybrid, they could make sense for someone who needs to put a lot of miles on a vehicle that size. And, they do pollute considerably less (at least tail-pipe), so that could factor into someone's decision. But I am against govt subsidies to make them look artificially attractive - there are better uses for that money.

-ERD50

[Zathras]

If it is purely an economic decision I would agree that hybrids are not the best deal.
Some like more muscle in their cars, some pay for sun roofs or pure size. Others pay for leather or whitewall tires. I like cars that use less oil, so a hybrid is worth it to me.
Personally, I would pay more for a car that gets 90mpg, which is why I plan to convert my prius to a plug-in hybrid in July. I far prefer good gas mileage so I am willing to pay for it.

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by Zathras

Personally, I would pay more for a car that gets 90mpg, which is why I plan to convert my prius to a plug-in hybrid in July.

How is your electricity generated?

90mpg is a 'fuzzy math' number, w/o including the fuel it takes to generate, distribute, convert to DC, and charge those batteries.

-ERD50

[mb]

Originally Posted by ERD50

Just read this in the Tribune:

Sales of 4 cylinder cars is way up. Hybrids not increasing so much. Why - it's simple. For most people, the extra cost of the hybrid simply is not a good return on their $.

Hybrids losing out to four-cylinders





-ERD50

The Prius is now the number one selling car in the SF bay area but I think that a lot of that is because there are a lot of techy and environmental types here that are willing to pay for it even though the economic numbers suggest otherwise. DW was recently at a Toyota dealer in Palo Alto and he claimed that Priuses were 50% of his sales. Don't know if I believe it is that high even in Palo Alto but I do believe that it is significant. The other thing that was driving hybrid sales in CA is you used to be able to get a pass to drive in the car pool lane with a hybrid and that is worth a lot of $s to many bay area commuters. Plus there is a bit of a snob factor in driving a hybrid in the bay area these days. It used to be a big SUV, now it is a hybrid. I think that is one reason why the Prius out sells the Civic hybrid. The Prius is obviously a hybrid whereas with the Civic it is not as obvious.

On a slightly different note, I recently read that now only 19% of the new cars sold in the SF bay area are made by the big three. In the US overall it is still 51%. Like it or not CA is a trend setter for these sorts of things. I have to think that there will be more pain in the rust belt as the big three continue to decline.

MB

[DblDoc]

Something not mentioned is the availability. I know last year people were waiting months for delivery of a new Prius in my area.

DD

[Zathras]

Originally Posted by ERD50

How is your electricity generated?

90mpg is a 'fuzzy math' number, w/o including the fuel it takes to generate, distribute, convert to DC, and charge those batteries.

-ERD50

I disagree. Maybe that argument could be made for a pure electric car. I don't see why you would make it for a plug in hybrid, especially when you are coming from the direction of strictly the amount of oil the car uses.

If I can drive 450 miles and on five gallons of gas it doesn't matter if I use 1 Kwh or 100Kwh, I still only used 5 gallons.

If you want to full details of where the energy comes from, lets then compare apples to apples, how much oil and energy is needed to supply the oil for the engines, as well as the tires and construction of the vehicles.

In my personal situation the energy for the batteries is generated with wind and solar.

[newguy88]

[quote=Zathras;649800]

If I can drive 450 miles and on five gallons of gas it doesn't matter if I use 1 Kwh or 100Kwh, I still only used 5 gallons.



Now wouldn't that be great!!!

[TromboneAl]

As we convert through plug in hybrids to electric cars, we're going to have to stop thinking in terms of miles per gallon and start thinking in terms of miles per dollar. Of course, it's a multi-dimensional thing, since there's cost, environmental cost, dependence on foreign oil cost, etc. But for most, the cost will be the primary consideration.

If your primary consideration is how much gas you use, then it makes some sense to talk in MPG.

While I'm blathering, consider this:

Leno has a plug-in hybrid that he can drive 40 miles without the gas engine turning on. In January he uses it to commute th 18 miles to work, and makes only one trip over 40 miles. He goes 800 miles, and he uses one gallon.

In February, he takes an 800 mile trip, with no stops for plugging in. He uses 20 gallons of gas.

So what's his mileage, 800 MPG or 40 MPG? The answer is that it doesn't make sense to talk in MPG in that situation.

[Zathras]

For cost of fuel, you are right Al, mpg isn't going to make sense much longer.
For those running the pure numbers, the plug-in hybrid I am looking at runs with a 5Kw battery system.
If I need to charge it in full every night that would cost me about 25 cents (off peak pricing). If I drive 40 miles the next day and get double the gas mileage that would be a saving of about .4 gallons or about $1.20. So I save about $1 a day.

Now, there are lots of estimations in there. If I only drove 40 miles a day I don't think I would deplete the entire battery and I believe I would get better than 90mpg. Alternatively many people pay more than I do for electricity.
But from a pure fuel cost, electricity beats gasoline hands down.

[newguy88]

Originally Posted by Zathras

For cost of fuel, you are right Al, mpg isn't going to make sense much longer.
For those running the pure numbers, the plug-in hybrid I am looking at runs with a 5Kw battery system.
If I need to charge it in full every night that would cost me about 25 cents (off peak pricing). If I drive 40 miles the next day and get double the gas mileage that would be a saving of about .4 gallons or about $1.20. So I save about $1 a day.

Now, there are lots of estimations in there. If I only drove 40 miles a day I don't think I would deplete the entire battery and I believe I would get better than 90mpg. Alternatively many people pay more than I do for electricity.
But from a pure fuel cost, electricity beats gasoline hands down.

Nuke plants baby!! Homer simpson!!!

[Johnphx]

Originally Posted by TromboneAl

As we convert through plug in hybrids to electric cars, we're going to have to stop thinking in terms of miles per gallon and start thinking in terms of miles per dollar.

I agree.

I began tracking my mileage in earnest just this last Feb. My MPG has held steady at ~30 (1994, 6 cylinder Mustang) but my MPD has fallen from about 10.5 to about 9.5.

Of course the major factor controlling that at this point is beyond my control. But if I were to move to a plug in variation of some car in the (hopefully) not too distant future, it has occurred to me that people will need to take into consideration the increase in their electric bill and it will only be worth it if that increase is less than the decrease in gas consumption.

[Bimmerbill]

I wouldn't count out diesel cars. Tho, they make sense only if you do a lot of highway driving and higher mileage per year (25K and up).

I get 47 or 48 mpg in my diesel Jetta. Sure, gas is $1 cheaper, but I know I get more than double the mpg of a comparable gasser.

One thing you don't see is resale value. Diesels really hold their value. So, if you drive a lot of miles you can hit the ROI numbers sooner.

But, yeah, the additioinal cost of the diesel is a hurdle up front.

[TromboneAl]

We get 40-44 MPG in our 2002 Echo, which cost $13,000.