Spreading the Word About Peak Oil More Effectively?

[flipstress]

From "The Oil Drum":
" ...a public service announcement that you will not be seeing on network Television:

Peak

...Now watch it again and try to concentrate on the words. Believe me, it starts to sink in after the fifth or sixth viewing..."

" What innovative ideas have you seen out there to educate people about peak oil in your area?"

[brewer12345]

So, oil has topped out, then?

[flipstress]

Some peak oil theorists believe so--well, I can name only one: Kenneth Deffeyes.

It (oil production) might be bottoming out in our generation, but that would be another video.

[Midpack]

IMO there is no questioning peak oil conceptually, only a matter of when. Some say it's already happened, but that debate isn't that important. If it hasn't, it would seem foolish to wait until it's undeniable to react. Once we reach that point, the lack of (ready to implement) alternatives will result in demand that will overwhelm supply and those price increases will make what's happening today seem trivial. If it happened today, could everyone buy a $109K Tesla (not that they could ramp up production anyway)? And I'll get flamed for it, but $4-5/gal gas can only help. But who knows...

[chinaco]

Supply/demand will push the price of fuel to levels that alternatives will be acceptable... whatever the alternatives happen to be... electric car, public transportation, etc.

at $10/gal... we will all be taking the bus.

[brewer12345]

Originally Posted by flipstress

Some peak oil theorists believe so--well, I can name only one: Kenneth Deffeyes.

It (oil production) might be bottoming out in our generation, but that would be another video.

I was talking about the price of oil, not its production volume.

[flipstress]

I wasn't sure what you meant; that's why I qualified my statement to mean oil production.

I would not know about price and how to predict it, although my guess is that price will keep trending higher on a steeper slope as oil becomes more rare/precious, until/unless we find substitutes for it.

I was also attempting a play on words--"topping out" in relation to her top having come off.

[DougViages]

Let's put this in context with a chart of price per barrel of oil over the past twelve years:



Note that until 2004/2005 the price per barrel bounced around the $20 to $35 range. The price increase is a very recent trend. Until 2005/06 producers had little incentive to pursue alternatives, spend big dollars on high risk exploration, or really develop biofuels. The price was just too low!

Before we talk about the YouTube video, let's review the three prime rules of Economics:

1. Incentives matter
2. There is no such thing as a "Free Lunch" (with the additional codicil that in order to things governments need to take money away from earners, borrow money, or print money - they make no money themselves)
3. All actions or choices represent tradeoffs in the use of limited resources (with the codicil that is Unintended Consequences that you have to watch out for.)

Let's deconstruct the video:

All resources are finite, not just oil. For example, plantable land for crops is basically finite (in the short run), so when governments pay bonuses (incentives) to farmers to grow biofuels, those lands are taken out of production for food, raising food prices (Unintended Consequences). The inflated amounts paid to producers doesn't come from the government, we pay for it in the form of higher prices and taxes (No such thing as a "Free Lunch)

The world economy doesn't run just on oil, we use many resources in a modern technological society. We aren't "addicted" to oil, it is just an important resource among many inputs in modern economic society.

Demand and Supply - let's talk basic Econ 101: An items demand and supply are always in balance, it's the price that tells us about the relative scarcity and value. You need to also consider the short(1 year), intermediate (2-5 years) and long range terms (5-20 years). Price is the critical mechanism in a free economy for telling producers how to proceed in the future. The high price of oil tells them that alternative sources, shale oil. nuclear, etc. should all be profitable approaches. Our free enterprise system actually works really well in this process. The government often foils this process, and makes us all worse off in the long run.

Peak Oil: See above - it depends on many things. For a (high) price, we can expand oil production dramatically over the next decade. A truly complex and politically charges issue.

Free economies, through the work and creativity of all of their millions of participants, have shown tremendous adaptability to changing circumstances. Given a chance to adapt, "Necessity is the Mother of Invention" has worked over and over again.

[flipstress]

Originally Posted by DougViages

Note that until 2004/2005 the price per barrel bounced around the $20 to $35 range. The price increase is a very recent trend. Until 2005/06 producers had little incentive to pursue alternatives, spend big dollars on high risk exploration, or really develop biofuels. The price was just too low!

That kind of shows to me that leaving everything to the "invisible hands of the free market" leaves much to be desired. If government leaders all knew that oil is finite, a more forward-thinking strategy would have been to encourage all these alternative technologies, encourage conservation to allocate the use of oil to most important societal uses, maybe change our transportation infrastructure--better rail, solar-powered buses, whatever else, implement land-use patterns to lessen sprawl and long commutes by car, promote more localized sources of food, etc., with incentives that you mention in #1.

Originally Posted by DougViages

All resources are finite, not just oil.

Yes. In fact, Richard Heinberg has a book entitled "Peak Everything". I haven't read it yet. I think I need to stop reading peak-oil stuff because it is making me glum about the future. Maybe all these resource depletion events won't happen in my lifetime but just saying goodbye to affordable air-travel is closing off future traveling options even though I say I do not care much for travel.

Originally Posted by DougViages

The world economy doesn't run just on oil, we use many resources in a modern technological society. We aren't "addicted" to oil, it is just an important resource among many inputs in modern economic society.

It seems that right now, there is no viable and affordable substitute for oil as liquid fuel for transit to go to work and wherever we need to go and for transportation and shipping of food, clothing, shoes(!), books, medicine, all items that we use everyday.

Also, isn't there a whole petro-chemical industry that brings us a lot of our modern goods like baby diapers, fertilizers, plastic bottles and toys, asphalt, etc.?

Maybe what peak-oil people mean when they say we are "addicted" to oil is that our modern way of life and the modern products that we use are heavily dependent on the availability of oil and petroleum.

Originally Posted by DougViages

Demand and Supply - let's talk basic Econ 101: An items demand and supply are always in balance, it's the price that tells us about the relative scarcity and value. You need to also consider the short(1 year), intermediate (2-5 years) and long range terms (5-20 years). Price is the critical mechanism in a free economy for telling producers how to proceed in the future. The high price of oil tells them that alternative sources, shale oil. nuclear, etc. should all be profitable approaches. Our free enterprise system actually works really well in this process. The government often foils this process, and makes us all worse off in the long run.

Peak Oil: See above - it depends on many things. For a (high) price, we can expand oil production dramatically over the next decade. A truly complex and politically charges issue.

I have come across this acronym EROEI (energy return on energy invested). I need to read more about it but it seems to be related to price inversely, so that if there is less oil in the ground, the EROEI to get it would be lower, and price would soar. I also gather that as oil's EROEI goes lower and lower, it doesn't become profitable for the oil to be extracted. It is also something used to compare energy alternatives.

Originally Posted by DougViages

Free economies, through the work and creativity of all of their millions of participants, have shown tremendous adaptability to changing circumstances. Given a chance to adapt, "Necessity is the Mother of Invention" has worked over and over again.

I hope that we do have the time to develop new sources of energy. I hope that we have enough supplies of oil to keep our modern society functioning, to use for developing a combination of different alternative sources of energy, and for the infrastructure "build-out" to deploy these new technologies. I hope we have the long-term on our side. In the short-term, I am preparing myself, if only psychologically, for (even) less luxuries and I am lowering my expectations about ER and my life in general.

As for the video, I posted a link to it because it is such a contrast to the staid and somber manner of most peak-oil activists, to their graphs and charts. I don't think the video is effective because it is distracting. But perhaps, her exposure will also get the phrase "peak oil" enough exposure in the mainstream, into society's consciousness.

[newguy88]

I still believe that the oil producers especially the OPEC cartel could care less how high the price goes. They want to see the USA come a crashing down economically. It will take decades to change over the energy systems around the world, in that time they believe they will bring America to its knees. 8 9 or 10 dollar fuel in america will really be a deal breaker everyplace. We cannot afford those prices.

[ziggy29]

Wow. Some people are talking about "peak oil?"

I never would have guessed...

[REWahoo]

I've come to the realization I'm living in dread of "peek" oil. It bums me out when I get a peek at the latest price per barrel...