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Old 06-24-2016, 08:52 PM   #61
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+1

This trust fund baby is an ignoramus!
You're describing my dream woman.
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Old 06-24-2016, 10:38 PM   #62
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It is just as easy to love a rich girl as a poor girl.
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Old 06-25-2016, 01:58 AM   #63
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This seems incredibly unlikely for a number of reasons I can think of. Switzerland doesn't seem to have done too badly on its own. I'm not saying that a young lady from Frankfurt might have some bias in making the call but...
She was talking about the EU. Neither Switzerland nor The UK will be a part of it. So Frankfurt is a pretty good bet.
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Old 06-25-2016, 09:17 AM   #64
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Had a small position in HDGE and was going to double it on Thursday, but when the market looked so strong that day, figured the smart money knew more than me, so I did not add to the position. I keep forgetting that old adage, when the crowd goes one way, go in opposite direction.
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Old 06-25-2016, 09:34 AM   #65
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They have many years of regulations to wind down because of this, it will take time. But my guess is that after it is all said and done, the agreements that will be made, will look pretty much like the agreements they already have, staying in the EU. Because they still have to meet the EU regulations to trade with the EU. In the end, I think it will not make much of a difference. Unfortunately they (and to a lesser degree the rest of us) will just have to suffer through somewhat lower GDP growth for a while until all this uncertainty is sorted out.

Not sure I agree. I think the terms they'll get will be significantly less advantageous than what they have now. In other words, they will still be held to many of the cumbersome parts, but will get less upside. The EU will have to "make a point" in order to stay credible. For example, while people generally think Switzerland has done ok outside of the EU (and they HAVE done ok), they HAVE had (and continue to have) their share of bitter pills to swallow during the bilateral agreement negotiations with the EU.
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Old 06-25-2016, 10:25 AM   #66
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Have to agree with you there.

Simply put: there is a strong incentive from the EUs perspective to make a Brexit turn out net negative for the UK, even if that hurts the EU as well.

Because if it would be happy sunshine and roses for the UK because of an exit, why have a EU at all?
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Old 06-25-2016, 08:22 PM   #67
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I can't prognosticate with any certainty so will leave it up to my global fund of index funds, VASGX, to sort out the mess, ruthlessly cleanse the losers and make me some money from the winners.
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Old 06-25-2016, 09:02 PM   #68
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The real trouble here is the potential future breakup of the EU as a result, which will introduce a ton of uncertainty that markets don't like.
Maybe we'll eventually see a return to something like the old European Economic Community (EEC), a free-trade zone which worked well and sticks to facilitating trade and leaves nations to decide for themselves on issues of immigration, how far a taxi ride can be, and many other things.
What we're seeing now is the natural result of the overreach of a nonresponsive, unaccountable bureaucracy. Maybe this is what "reform" looks like--or will prompt it.
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Old 06-26-2016, 11:53 AM   #69
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I'll just rebalance if necessary, Brexit won't change my strategy.Also I live off rent and a small pension so I'm not concerned about market volatility.

However, as a UK citizen living in the US I'm gutted by Brexit as are most of my friends in the UK on the left and right of the political spectrum. They are mostly college educated and live in London where the vote to stay easily won.

Whoever in the new Prime Minister is getting a poisoned chalice as the UK economy will take a hit until negotiations are finished......and that could be a decade.

Interestingly the Scottish First Minister and leader if SNP, Nicolas Sturgeon, is saying that the Scottish Parliament might have a Brexit veto power. The constitutional issues are very complex. Also the UK parliament is not bound by the result of the referendum, but it would be a brave MP that would vote to ignore the result.
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Old 06-26-2016, 12:17 PM   #70
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I was at a cocktail party not long ago and a woman opined that "buying on a dip" was the equivalent of taking advantage of someone's misfortune and morally wrong.

Of course, with a hefty trust fund paying her bills it might be easy to take the high ground.
Ha! Just the opposite. It's a moral imperative to buy the dip. Otherwise those sellers would have no exit and end up with nothing!
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Old 06-26-2016, 12:22 PM   #71
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Read today on the Web . . . "and I thought Brexit was something that happened an hour after Wafflehouse."
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Old 06-26-2016, 05:21 PM   #72
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I was at 50% in money market. That 50% went to help provide liquidity for the big money. I guess I am half moral/immoral. I have noticed that moralityinhibitions depends if booze glasses are half full or half empty.
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Old 06-27-2016, 04:26 PM   #73
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Cameron is saying that an early election might be a good idea because of all the political turmoil in the UK. If a party runs with "Remain" on it's ticket and wins then I can see that being a legitimate mandate to ignore the referendum result and stay in the EU. It is up to Parliament to pass legislation to initiate Article 50 to leave the EU as the referendum is non binding and if the ruling party wants to stay in, then the legislation won't be drafted.
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Old 06-27-2016, 05:06 PM   #74
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The consequences of the Brexit vote are far reaching indeed. England just lost to Iceland in the European Championship. Is there no end to the pain?
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Old 06-27-2016, 08:49 PM   #75
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The loss to Iceland was sort of poetic......and I say that as an Englishman. There's a lot of remorse over Brexit....if the vote was taken today I think it would go the other way, particularly with the way many of the Leave politicians are distancing themselves from promises they made during the campaign,
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Old 06-27-2016, 09:00 PM   #76
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She was talking about the EU. Neither Switzerland nor The UK will be a part of it. So Frankfurt is a pretty good bet.
Sorry Keith. I get it now but I suspect the 'big' money will continue to find its way largely through London.
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Old 06-27-2016, 11:02 PM   #77
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Cameron is saying that an early election might be a good idea because of all the political turmoil in the UK. If a party runs with "Remain" on it's ticket and wins then I can see that being a legitimate mandate to ignore the referendum result and stay in the EU.
That would be an ironic turn of events. The Labour Party officially favored "stay" and is now in a huge turmoil and seems likely to dump its leader--and was in a disorganized state even before all of this. And, we know Labour voters favored "leave" to a much higher degree than the Torries did. Not an auspicious place from which to begin a winning campaign. And, if the Torries want to run someone who favors "stay," maybe David Cameron will be back.

Seems highly unlikely. Lots of hand-wringing right now, but I think it will be fine, soon. And if the EU hierarchy (and leaders of EU nations) do as expected and attempt to punish the UK (to prevent others from making this same move) I think they'll do a lot to convince British voters that they did the right thing. History has shown they don't take kindly to that kind of treatment--it's a very commendable British trait.

The UK is sovereign. They can negotiate trade deals as they wish--with individual nations or with the entire EU as a whole. These would favor both sides of the deal. There's no reason to believe this is going to be an economic calamity. The EU has only existed for 25 years, and there were plenty of good arrangements that largely restricted themselves to trade/economics (not immigration, politics, supranational court systems, etc) before that. The UK can use similar arrangements today. Frankly, I worry more about the health of the EU, not the UK. Without a nation playing the role the UK has played in that organization, its prospects are dimmed considerably.
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Old 06-28-2016, 05:54 AM   #78
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futures are up this AM - end of Brexit? All good now?
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Old 06-28-2016, 07:27 AM   #79
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futures are up this AM - end of Brexit? All good now?
Yes, after Brexit comes Bregret. I suspect, however, it will be short lived. The Bard himself put it best

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How now, my lord, why do you keep alone,
Of sorriest fancies your companions making,
Using those thoughts which should indeed have died
With them they think on? Things without all remedy
Should be without regard: what's done, is done.
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Old 06-28-2016, 07:37 AM   #80
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The Bard himself put it best
Or...while still 'Barding'....
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Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;
Or close the wall up with our English dead.
In peace there's nothing so becomes a man
As modest stillness and humility;
But when the blast of war blows in our ears,
Then imitate the action of the tiger. . . .
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