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Brexit!
Old 06-24-2016, 04:46 AM   #1
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Brexit!

Watching the BBC and MSNBC overnight news on the UK leaving the EU, I wonder if the members here are concerned about their FIRE decision.
I see the markets dropping for a few weeks followed by a slow recovery in the US. The interest rates will remain low for the next few years and US politics will just go on😩 . I think that our travel plans will include the EU and UK, but not significantly increase. The pound and Euro will fall and keep inflation down, but cause the U.S. exports to fall as the dollar rises. Overall, it will be much fanfare and noise with little long term affect on the US.

Your thoughts?


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Old 06-24-2016, 05:14 AM   #2
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Might buy a couple €s today.
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Old 06-24-2016, 06:01 AM   #3
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I will be putting a buy in for DVY at 5% below yesterday's close. Pick up my July buy a little bit early.
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Old 06-24-2016, 06:11 AM   #4
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The markets are all tumbling today so far. It might be a day for bargain hunting for those so inclined.


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Old 06-24-2016, 06:14 AM   #5
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It's the end of the world! The incredibly efficient EU has been weakened!
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Old 06-24-2016, 06:19 AM   #6
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Hoping that my balanced funds will automatically take advantage of this.
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Old 06-24-2016, 06:20 AM   #7
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I find interesting the talk that now Scotland is talking about having another vote to leave UK and stay with EU.
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Old 06-24-2016, 06:22 AM   #8
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Could be a good time to buy or the "wealth effect" that people feel from declining portfolios might finally push us into a recession. Time will tell.
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Old 06-24-2016, 06:24 AM   #9
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I find interesting the talk that now Scotland is talking about having another vote to leave UK and stay with EU.
I wonder if Scotland ever met the criteria to ever actually get into the EU? Many countries in the EU are there for the handouts, Greece being one.
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Old 06-24-2016, 06:26 AM   #10
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I think this will have little long term effect on the US markets. Could be a good sale next week. I was planning a large stock purchase the week of July 5th assuming the closing of my condo goes through. Now I will likely get a discount on that purchase so I don't mind this short 'hiccup' int he market.
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Old 06-24-2016, 06:30 AM   #11
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This too shall pass. As I understand it they have two years to work out how the exit will really work.

Also, don't forget some time ago they said the world was going to come to an end if the Brits did not adopt the Euro in place of the pound.................
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Old 06-24-2016, 06:39 AM   #12
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I make an annual move of shares from tIRA to roth IRA in the same mutual fund. This may be an opportunity to move a greater number of shares. It would help a little when my wife takes her first MRD next year.

Cheers!
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Old 06-24-2016, 06:45 AM   #13
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This too shall pass. As I understand it they have two years to work out how the exit will really work.
They have two years to negotiate terms of the exit as soon as the relevant Article 50 from the Lisbon treaty is activated. It hasn't been yet.

The way it looks now Cameron will refuse to do so, and leave it up to his replacement (arriving in October).
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Old 06-24-2016, 06:54 AM   #14
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For kicks, I'll have to look at the market tumble today with a stock ticker on my computer. I have no plans of making a knee jerk move.

Look at the bright side, at least Led Zeppelin and "Stairway to Heaven" are intact .
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Old 06-24-2016, 07:16 AM   #15
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A great buying opportunity for those in accumulation phase. We'll give back the good bump over the last few weeks and then some. I'm guessing that the S&P 500 declines 3-5%. I'm interested to see how bonds do to buffer that decline but I fully expect to be temporarily 2-3% poorer by the end of the day.

Bloody Brits
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Old 06-24-2016, 07:21 AM   #16
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Made no changes in the run up to this, I'm not too concerned that personally it will have that much long term effect on us. We're conservative enough in wr that our lives will go on. I'm more concerned for the longer term effect on UK and EU as more start talking referenda to leave, generally weakening of Europe (and perhaps UK depending upon your sentiment). And that cannot be good for the world IMO given the opportunistic moves of Putin and the challenges facing this part of the world. It just makes me less optimistic about solving common problems of Europe and the UK.

I find it interesting the comparison of London vote to countryside. It's very analogous to the political attitudes in our state; metro areas vs. rural. This growing phenomena of division in our countries along such lines does not bode well for our ability to seek common solutions to the problems we face I fear. Anyway, good luck to all involved.
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Old 06-24-2016, 07:25 AM   #17
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Might buy a couple s today.
Darn, my credit card deposit in Euros posted yesterday!

Oh well - there is quite a bit more to buy......
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Old 06-24-2016, 07:28 AM   #18
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"Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful."
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Old 06-24-2016, 07:34 AM   #19
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I find it interesting the comparison of London vote to countryside. It's very analogous to the political attitudes in our state; metro areas vs. rural. This growing phenomena of division in our countries along such lines does not bode well for our ability to seek common solutions to the problems we face I fear. Anyway, good luck to all involved.
The dividing lines are not really metro vs. rural . It's more 1) England & Wales vs. Scotland, Ireland and the rest 2) Old vs. young. 3) Poor vs. Rich and 4) uneducated vs. educated.

There is a correlation with rural vs. metro since higher educated folks tend to work in cities, but it's weaker. East London for example had a leave majority.

Nice breakdowns here:
EU referendum full results – find out how your area voted | Politics | The Guardian
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Old 06-24-2016, 07:35 AM   #20
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It is really fun to watch when the "smart money" gets it wrong and has to scramble for the exits. It can disrupt markets for a while, but usually not that long - a month or two or three.

This type of market action says nothing about the economy. It's all about big players getting caught leaning the wrong way and having to deal with margin calls, etc. So there often is spillover. But it eventually settles down.

Any economic impact from Brexit will not happen right away, and then will be gradual.
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