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Old 02-28-2009, 11:51 AM   #41
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I feel I must rise in defense of Mr. Cramer. I'll be the first to admit that his antics are an unnecessary irritant. However, he was right about the housing bubble. And he was right when he told viewers of the Today show to get any money they will need in the next 5 years out of stocks some 3000+ Dow points ago. I believe he is right when he argues that the financial crisis will not stabilize until confidence returns to the housing market (why would a bank make a loan when the underlying collateral decreases in value every month?).

The S&P 500 is 26.9% lower than it was the day of the election. It is down 8.7 % in the month since the inaugural. Clearly, the stock market's confidence has not been restored by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, the TARP, the continuing investments in the mega-banks and a proposed $3.6 trillion budget that is 49% ($1.75 trillion) deficit spending. The implications of this last item for future taxes, interest rates and inflation are (IMO) enormous.

Would anyone be able to do better than Mr. Obama and his team? Maybe not. No one can argue that he hasn't been dealt a lousy hand. But they're the only cards he--and all of us--have. Mr. Cramer argues that the President and his team have not played the hand well as evidenced by a pork laden spending bill, confused messages from Mr. Geithner, and the announcement of a budget that doesn't even make an attempt to rein in spending. Regardless of your party affiliation, you've got to admit Cramer's got a legitimate argument.
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Old 02-28-2009, 11:59 AM   #42
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The S&P 500 is 26.9% lower than it was the day of the election. It is down 8.7 % in the month since the inaugural. Clearly, the stock market's confidence has not been restored by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, the TARP, the continuing investments in the mega-banks and a proposed $3.6 trillion budget that is 49% ($1.75 trillion) deficit spending. The implications of this last item for future taxes, interest rates and inflation are (IMO) enormous.

Would anyone be able to do better than Mr. Obama and his team? Maybe not. No one can argue that he hasn't been dealt a lousy hand. But they're the only cards he--and all of us--have. Mr. Cramer argues that the President and his team have not played the hand well as evidenced by a pork laden spending bill, confused messages from Mr. Geithner, and the announcement of a budget that doesn't even make an attempt to rein in spending. Regardless of your party affiliation, you've got to admit Cramer's got a legitimate argument.
Plus, I'd add that the stuff Bush and Paulson were doing wasn't exactly well-received by the markets, either. So I don't think it's Obama per se or his specific policies per se, but the markets seem to be indicating that they don't think any government interventions will work. I'm not sure I believe that, but I would believe that as much as we feel we need to "do something," doing something bad is worse than doing nothing at all.

In any event, I think the market is saying that it believes we need to hit the "reset button," let everything collapse, and rebuild from the ashes. Because nothing that's perceived as "propping up" sick institutions is doing anything but tanking the market.

And on that note, I'm moving this thread into the politics area.
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Old 02-28-2009, 12:56 PM   #43
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"a very honorable man" He is a Chicago politician!
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Old 02-28-2009, 02:23 PM   #44
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"a very honorable man" He is a Chicago politician!
Let's shorten that to: He's a politician.

I don't know what McCain would have done. But I'm glad I don't have to listen to all Hollywood actors, comics, and general media make jokes about him. Can you imagine what we would have had to listen to if Obama lost?
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Old 02-28-2009, 04:20 PM   #45
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Let's shorten that to: He's a politician.

I don't know what McCain would have done. But I'm glad I don't have to listen to all Hollywood actors, comics, and general media make jokes about him. Can you imagine what we would have had to listen to if Obama lost?
Good point Dex. It's true that the language and tone of the anti-McCain folks had gone way over the top by the end of the campaign. Now, even a whisper than Obama is not perfect is met with cries that the speaker is unpatriotic, a bigot, etc. I sense a little hypocrisy..... and since I like to beat up on all candidates and politicians, I think it's unfair to not allow open criticism of everybody from everybody.
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Old 02-28-2009, 04:53 PM   #46
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Good point Dex. It's true that the language and tone of the anti-McCain folks had gone way over the top by the end of the campaign. Now, even a whisper than Obama is not perfect is met with cries that the speaker is unpatriotic, a bigot, etc. I sense a little hypocrisy..... and since I like to beat up on all candidates and politicians, I think it's unfair to not allow open criticism of everybody from everybody.
As borrow a phrase used concerning the stock market....."it's different this time".
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Old 02-28-2009, 09:39 PM   #47
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I agree 100%. I am disgusted by him now. I guess he just wants Wall Street to stay the way it has been. As I said in an earlier post on another thread...the more these fools on Wall Street squeal, the more bullish I get. Obama's change movement is starting to bite on the Street and I could not be happier about that.
Let's see how happy your are when Obama's "change movement" bites your wallet and your freedom.
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Old 02-28-2009, 11:59 PM   #48
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Skis...since you do not seems happy with Obama's solutions, what do you propose?
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Old 03-01-2009, 03:41 AM   #49
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. . . but the markets seem to be indicating that they don't think any government interventions will work. I'm not sure I believe that, but I would believe that as much as we feel we need to "do something," doing something bad is worse than doing nothing at all.

Ziggy, there ain't a politician alive, democrat or republican, who under these circumstances would risk doing nothing and being percieved by history as another Herbert Hoover. Let's just hope if Obama isn't doing the right thing now he figures it out in time. Lol.
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Old 03-01-2009, 07:56 AM   #50
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Let's see how happy your are when Obama's "change movement" bites your wallet and your freedom.
Obama's solutions are definitely gonna bit the wallet, how could they not?

As for freedom, what is that all about? I don't think the country is going to turn into a police state unless of course the economy sinks badly and there is much civil unrest, that is possible.

Freedom is relative. If you are working your ass off for many years, hating it, but paying for all the goodies, that are nothing but temporary fixes, are you free?

The only thing I see the democrats doing is getting us into more debt, but isn't that exactly what the other side would do?

The crisis as I see it, and from what I read about it, choosing carefully not to politicize it, was perpetrated by those who should have known better, such as the bankers, the brokers, the politicians, the Fed, the Sec, all the so called pros who would or could not think systematically enough into the future to see that this whole house of cards would eventually come tumbling down.

To blame Joe six pack for buying a house he couldn't afford is easy to do, but it's the ones who should have known better, the professionals that sold him a product knowing he was going to go down the tubes.

Now that the country is leveraged, another term for in hock, up to it's eyeballs, what do we do? Does Rush Limbaugh and his CPAC people have a solution, perhaps we should just let the chips fall where they may, perhaps that would lead to many more layoffs and worse, civil insurrection.

Who knows?


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Old 03-01-2009, 08:32 AM   #51
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"Now that the country is leveraged, another term for in hock, up to it's eyeballs, what do we do? Does Rush Limbaugh and his CPAC people have a solution, perhaps we should just let the chips fall where they may, perhaps that would lead to many more layoffs and worse, civil insurrection."

This is the key issue. If we just let the chips fall where they may, we could very well end up with Great Depression 2 which would be a disaster. Government needs to do everything possible to put the brakes on this slide....engineer a soft landing if you will... so we don't crash and have the plane break into pieces.
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Old 03-01-2009, 08:42 AM   #52
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Well lets start with not spending money you do not have!

We assail folks on this board that do not live below their means, yet that is exactly what our government is doing. Not only cut the earmarks, but the pork that is related to them. Be truthful with the American people. Don't tell us things like 'This bill has no earmarks' while it is riddled with pork projects! Federal spending should go for Federal projects only! And then don't allow local projects to become federal. If CA wants a museum the CA should build it. Not TX or FL!

You want health care, fine, cut military spending, or well fair, or road projects, or foreign aid, or farm aid, or what ever you want. I won't say another word about it. Just fund it out of existing funds, without fancy tax increases masked as fees or other hidden names.
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Old 03-01-2009, 08:50 AM   #53
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Rustic...I agree with what you said. We should strive for that going forward. But we are in a tough spot now and this is how politics has been done for decades. I say government hopefully engineers a soft landing first and then immediately focuses like a laser beam on the improvements you mentioned.
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Old 03-01-2009, 09:12 AM   #54
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Well lets start with not spending money you do not have!

We assail folks on this board that do not live below their means, yet that is exactly what our government is doing. Not only cut the earmarks, but the pork that is related to them. Be truthful with the American people. Don't tell us things like 'This bill has no earmarks' while it is riddled with pork projects! Federal spending should go for Federal projects only! And then don't allow local projects to become federal. If CA wants a museum the CA should build it. Not TX or FL!
.
The problem as I see it is cultural. We've developed a mainstream culture of shop till you drop. Credit flowed like water, why deprive yourself. Many on this board FIRED cause they didn't buy this philosophy, the rest of the Sheeple just spent willy nilly. This culture existed on Wall street as I mentioned, existed in government.

Imagine, if Obama were to address the nation, tell the truth, say "Folks, the party is over, we are broke, there is no more credit, it is gone, we need to tighten up and start saving for while, reduce the national debt, reign in useless programs, start watching our pennies and get back to basics" "We need to go lean for a while, to regroup, recoup, and rethink our resources and ways"

Well that is the truth, the market would go down to about 5000 in short time, layoffs would continue, safetynets would have to be implemented and the economic engine based partly on useless crap would contract by 10%. But that is the truth, that is the reality, not the fantasy.

If that isn't a LBYM approach, I don't know what is, but it is the truth.

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Old 03-01-2009, 09:14 AM   #55
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Well lets start with not spending money you do not have!

Generally, I couldn't agree more -- which was one reason why I so disliked President Bush. He not only got us into a war we didn't need, but then refused to tax Americans to pay for it, in the process running up large "off budget" budget deficits. But now we are going to see even larger budget deficits. Even if Obama fixes the economy, we are going to see higher inflation, or greater taxes, or both in the years to come.

I am now planning to leave my kids a greater inheritance, if I can, to help protect them from the future ravages we as a country have created for them!
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Old 03-01-2009, 09:51 AM   #56
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I am now planning to leave my kids a greater inheritance, if I can, to help protect them from the future ravages we as a country have created for them!
Good luck with that. I doubt I will ever have the portfolio I had 18 months ago. I'm going to need every penny I have left just to get me to the house.
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Old 03-01-2009, 10:36 AM   #57
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Skis...since you do not seems happy with Obama's solutions, what do you propose?
I propose (first) that the officials in the previous finance and banking committee (many of whom are still in the committee and in power -one currently the Vice President) admit that they encouraged Greenspan to keep rates low and that they presured the banks to lend irresponsibily; therefore that they are part of the problem. Unless they admit their part, they will continue to create more problems. It all starts here.
Second, remove the earmarks in the "stimulus" package, such as the millions to save the mouse in the San Francisco Bay area and the millions to decorate federal buildings. No need to go on here.
Third, no mortgage bailouts for those who borrowed irresponsibily. I don't want to pay for them. If others want to, then let the government send them the mortgage coupon books so that they can pay directly. or walk over to your neighbor's house and ask for the coupons.
Fourth, stop the class warfare. Railing against people who have the wherewithall to make money will not get this country anywhere we want to go. Stop the vindication against those who work.
No more indirect taxes on the middle class such as the energy tax that will be passed down.
Fifth, institute a flat tax today. Let everyone pay "their fair share." If some want to pay more, let the government send them an envelope to send it in.
Sixth, if taxpayer money is necessary to any company first kick out the "genius" CEO's and Boards that caused the problem.
Seventh, no more special deals for the people in power, such as Pelosi's expensive airplane and her trip to Italy to get her grandparent's birth certificates. I don't want to pay for those types of things either.
I could go on, but this is enough. Basically I want Obama to use logic and sense, not irresponsible, government spending.
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Old 03-01-2009, 11:32 AM   #58
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I propose (first) that the officials in the previous finance and banking committee (many of whom are still in the committee and in power -one currently the Vice President) admit that they encouraged Greenspan to keep rates low and that they presured the banks to lend irresponsibily; therefore that they are part of the problem. Unless they admit their part, they will continue to create more problems. It all starts here.
I just don't follow this attack on Senator Biden and other Democrats for their supposed role in the mortgage crisis that lead to this ecomonic situation we are in. I have seen this claim about Democratic culpability before, and want to set the record straight.

I work for a federal financial regulatory agency, and have since 1999. The chief regulators are appointed by, and part, of the executive branch -- not the legislative branch. And it is clear that George Bush and the Republicans -- not the Democrats -- controlled regulatory appointments and thus all the banking agencies during the period in which the mortgage mess really started to brew and came to a head (2001 - 2006).

As a regulator, your job is to say "no" when a member of Congress legislature comes to you and tries to pressure you to do something that is not right --- and a good regulator will do that. In fact, since the Keating 5 scandal (remember that?), most legislators are circumspect in their requests relating to financial regulation.

Of course, the folks in Congress can pass laws that are irresponsible, or try irresponsibly to pressure a regulator to do something by threatening to change the existing law in a way the regulator won't like. But in the time period that the mortgage mess was really starting to brew (See the CNBC documentary "House of Cards"), the Democrats did not even control the Congress!! So the Democrats couldn't pass laws, or effectively pressure the regulators by threatening to pass laws, even if those Democrats wanted to. So the idea that Biden should fess up to some sort of responsibility for the current mortgage mess just makes no sense to me.

OK, I have said enough about this. There is plenty of blame to go around, but to blame the Democrats you have go back years and years prior to the mortgage crisis came to a head and contruct very flimsy arguments. It is really a stretch.
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Old 03-01-2009, 11:49 AM   #59
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In the interests of saving time, and of everyone's desire to find a scapegoat for the mortgage meltdown, I have a solution.

You can all blame me.

Thanks be to God for internet anonymity.
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Old 03-01-2009, 02:08 PM   #60
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Generally, I couldn't agree more -- which was one reason why I so disliked President Bush. He not only got us into a war we didn't need, but then refused to tax Americans to pay for it, in the process running up large "off budget" budget deficits. But now we are going to see even larger budget deficits. Even if Obama fixes the economy, we are going to see higher inflation, or greater taxes, or both in the years to come.
It is amazing that Obama is doing some of the same things we disliked about Bush policies. The only difference I see is that Obama is being upfront about his war agenda and non-military spending whereas Bush tended to try to keep those things masked. But the end results are looking very similar in many regards. American youth are dieing needlessly in foreign lands and we're running up staggering deficits.
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