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Question David Wiedemer, Aftershock
Old 09-05-2011, 09:51 AM   #1
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Question David Wiedemer, Aftershock

What do you think of his thesis, that we are going to social and economic hell in a fast luge? I'd think he is a crackpot, but my spouse has been saying similar things for several years (fear of complete dollar failure, street riots because of inequality, etc.).
I'd like to believe that things get a bit better or a bit worse, but pretty much stay the same--pretty much has been that way for my lifetime.
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Old 09-05-2011, 09:57 AM   #2
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Doom sells. Mostly gold, guns and ammunition, but it still sells...
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Old 09-05-2011, 10:21 AM   #3
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They are selling news letters.
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Old 09-05-2011, 11:35 AM   #4
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Chinaco, yes, I've already cancelled one of them and am waiting for the others to bill to cancel them. Why would I need them, with this group?
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Old 09-05-2011, 11:52 AM   #5
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Doom sells. Mostly gold, guns and ammunition, but it still sells...
And freeze dryed food (1960's). MRE's are just too new fangled.
Ate the freeze dryed long ago - great for back packing. Guns and ammo went in Katrina. Still have a few coins in the bank deposit box -'They're purty.'

heh heh heh - My parents never could let go of 'The Great Depression.' As a kid had to watch Lawrence Welk( a hep cat in the 30's) on BW tv. Never could get them to loosen up with Ozzie and Harriet let alone rock with Ricky.
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Old 09-05-2011, 12:04 PM   #6
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I'd like to believe that things get a bit better or a bit worse, but pretty much stay the same--pretty much has been that way for my lifetime.
True, but you didn't live through the great depression or WW2. My feeling is that the future usually looks bad and things usually turn out OK, but one of these days...
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Old 09-05-2011, 12:11 PM   #7
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but one of these days...
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Old 09-05-2011, 12:44 PM   #8
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True, but you didn't live through the great depression or WW2. My feeling is that the future usually looks bad and things usually turn out OK, but one of these days...
You're correct, Al, but my father did, and served on bombers for three years of the war. And things still turned out all right. But your main point is what scares me.
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Old 09-05-2011, 01:59 PM   #9
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True, but you didn't live through the great depression or WW2. My feeling is that the future usually looks bad and things usually turn out OK, but one of these days...
Looking on the bright side, betting that things won't go seriously bad has a good frequency payoff, but as any decent gambler will tell you, it isn't frequency alone which wins, it is also expectation and the cost of being wrong.

This is my main reason for trying to pay zero attention to prognostications on this board. It is not that they are not usually right, because they are. Usually things do muddle through. But not always, and even rare misses can be very costly. But as soon as someone starts a serious inquiry into some low probability event, he will immediately hear about his tinfoil hat. So unlikely but potentially very damaging scenarios will not get a good airing

Look at the problem presented to Jews and other minorities in Europe in the 30s.

Ha
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Old 09-05-2011, 02:11 PM   #10
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I don't see any potential benefit to spending time worrying about a future that will likely never come to pass and I have little if any ability to influence.
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Old 09-05-2011, 03:03 PM   #11
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I once seriously prepared to fight an all-out nuclear war. Once you have mentally come to grips with that possibility, everything else is sunshine and rainbows.
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Old 09-05-2011, 03:07 PM   #12
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I once seriously prepared to fight an all-out nuclear war. Once you have mentally come to grips with that possibility, everything else is sunshine and rainbows.
+1

This might also be the source of my sunny disposition...
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Old 09-05-2011, 03:23 PM   #13
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I had a long argument with one of my gold bug friends who said the dollar would fail and there would be riots in the street. That was 36 years ago and it hasn't happened yet.
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Old 09-05-2011, 03:36 PM   #14
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I once seriously prepared to fight an all-out nuclear war. Once you have mentally come to grips with that possibility, everything else is sunshine and rainbows.
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+1
This might also be the source of my sunny disposition...
Count me in, too, plus volcano eruptions and hurricanes and earthquakes.

Maybe we should add "PollyAnna" and "Doom&gloom" tags to this section of the board...
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Old 09-05-2011, 03:39 PM   #15
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I've read about Wiedemer and his book and watched a video about the theories presented in Aftershock. Being a bit of a doom and gloomer at times, ads for it caught my eye.

I was not convinced to buy the book and hope he's wrong. I just had a strong impression he's trying to cash in on the fears of people like me.

I do worry that we've lost our optimistic outlook for the future and this scares me most of all. I'm working on regaining my own optimism and hope we, as a nation, can look at the future with confidence again. I think this is key to our recovery.

From FDR's inauguaral speech in 1932:

Quote:
This great Nation will endure as it has endured, will revive and will prosper. So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself—nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance. In every dark hour of our national life a leadership of frankness and vigor has met with that understanding and support of the people themselves which is essential to victory.
The full text of the speech is here if anyone is interested in reading it: "Only Thing We Have to Fear Is Fear Itself": FDR's First Inaugural Address
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Old 09-05-2011, 03:53 PM   #16
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My fear is the exact opposite of Wiedemer's. I don't see a dollar panic and I don't see a federal debt crisis in the near, or even medium term. What I do see is a slowing economy without guardrails. The Fed is hard against the lower zero bound and fiscal policy is going in reverse. With a still very overleveraged consumer, we can easily find ourselves back in a deflationary deleveraging tailspin.
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Old 09-05-2011, 04:48 PM   #17
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Many good points. I well remember the nuclear war drills we did in the early 60s. That would have done so much good--crawling under one's desk?
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Old 09-05-2011, 05:10 PM   #18
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Many good points. I well remember the nuclear war drills we did in the early 60s. That would have done so much good--crawling under one's desk?
Yeah, I remember "Duck and Cover"...

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Old 09-05-2011, 08:34 PM   #19
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I don't see any potential benefit to spending time worrying about a future that will likely never come to pass and I have little if any ability to influence.
True, if one must worry or ignore. There is a third possibility- consider dispassionately.

Ha
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Old 09-05-2011, 08:54 PM   #20
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True, if one must worry or ignore. There is a third possibility- consider dispassionately.
Have your dispassionate considerations resulted in any actionable conclusions?
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