Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 07-25-2011, 07:12 PM   #21
gone traveling
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,864
November 6, 2012.
__________________

__________________
Westernskies is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 07-27-2011, 02:54 AM   #22
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: France
Posts: 1,195
This is what it looks like from over here.

We have a song for it, too: "The leaders of the free world are just little boys throwing stones".
__________________

__________________
Age 56, retired July 1, 2012; DW is 60 and working for 2 more years. Current portfolio is 2000K split 50 stocks/20 bonds/30 cash. Renting house, no debts.
BigNick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2011, 12:59 PM   #23
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
DFW_M5's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 4,982
While I think they will kick the can down the road by Aug 2, I hedge due to all the new the tea party representatives.
__________________
DFW_M5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-28-2011, 12:37 AM   #24
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 882
Quote:
Originally Posted by DFW_M5 View Post
While I think they will kick the can down the road by Aug 2, I hedge due to all the new the tea party representatives.
the hobbits!
__________________
jebmke is offline   Reply With Quote
August 2, 2011 9 A.M. EST
Old 07-28-2011, 08:04 PM   #25
Full time employment: Posting here.
Retire Soon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 655
August 2, 2011 9 A.M. EST

August 2, 2011 9 A.M. EST
__________________
"I went to the woods because I wished to live deliberately... and not, when I came to die, discover that I had not lived."

--Henry David Thoreau
Retire Soon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-28-2011, 09:06 PM   #26
Full time employment: Posting here.
dessert's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Southern Louisiana
Posts: 517
At this point, I'm not very optimistic at all. If the deadline is met, I am guessing August 1st at 2355 Eastern time complete with some weird ceremony by whomever will try and take the credit for it all.
__________________
Officially retired........Class of 2011
dessert is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2011, 12:28 AM   #27
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
kyounge1956's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 2,171
Quote:
Originally Posted by dessert View Post
At this point, I'm not very optimistic at all. If the deadline is met, I am guessing August 1st at 2355 Eastern time complete with some weird ceremony by whomever will try and take the credit for it all.
I'm pessimistic too. I think the mainstream Republicans may find themselves between a rock and a hard place now that the vote on Speaker Boehner's plan has been postponed. Unless they pull together enough votes to pass that plan tomorrow, the Democrats can put forward their plan on Monday, and the non-Tea Party Republicans will be faced with a choice between voting with the Democrats or getting to take the blame for whatever happens if the ceiling isn't raised before Tuesday. If the Boehner plan does go through, then the Democrats will be the ones who get painted into a corner. Either they pass Boehner's plan and the President signs it, and we have to go through the whole mess again before the 2012 election, or they don't, and then the D's are the ones who have to pull a rabbit out of a hat by coming up with a plan that both houses can approve in an extremely short time frame.

Like dessert, I really am starting think this will go literally to the 11th hour—if not beyond.
__________________
kyounge1956 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2011, 08:05 AM   #28
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 18,299
Quote:
Originally Posted by kyounge1956 View Post
I'm pessimistic too. .... Either they pass Boehner's plan and the President signs it, and we have to go through the whole mess again before the 2012 election, or they don't, and then the D's are the ones who have to pull a rabbit out of a hat by coming up with a plan that both houses can approve in an extremely short time frame.
Aren't we already there? The House has already passed a bill, but as I understand it, the D-controlled Senate won't pass it, and The President has said he would veto it.

House passes GOP debt measure; Obama praises compromise plan - CNN

-ERD50
__________________
ERD50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2011, 08:19 AM   #29
gone traveling
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Portland
Posts: 133
Maybe we should add a new predicition: Guess the drop

I think DOW 10,500 by late August.
__________________
DoraM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2011, 08:42 AM   #30
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: France
Posts: 1,195
What worries me about this article is not that Steve Jobs can apparently now order a bigger pizza than the President, but that the US seems to be down to pocket change.

I remember reading in a book by Lee Iacocca's about the day when his CFO told him that Chrysler was down to its last $1 million. As Iacocca said, this is like a regular citizen being down to a couple of bucks, some time before pay day.
__________________
Age 56, retired July 1, 2012; DW is 60 and working for 2 more years. Current portfolio is 2000K split 50 stocks/20 bonds/30 cash. Renting house, no debts.
BigNick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2011, 09:44 AM   #31
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
TromboneAl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 11,201
The resolution is easy, actually. Moody's writes a budget, sends it to congress and says, "Pass this today or we drop your credit rate to junk bond status on Monday."
__________________
Al
TromboneAl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2011, 09:47 AM   #32
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 18,299
Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl View Post
The resolution is easy, actually. Moody's writes a budget, sends it to congress and says, "Pass this today or we drop your credit rate to junk bond status on Monday."
I like that! Hey, if two parties can't agree, sometimes you go to third party arbitration. Let's do it!

-ERD50
__________________
ERD50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2011, 10:58 AM   #33
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
kyounge1956's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 2,171
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by kyounge1956 View Post
I'm pessimistic too.(snip)If the Boehner plan does go through, then the Democrats will be the ones who get painted into a corner. Either they pass Boehner's plan and the President signs it, and we have to go through the whole mess again before the 2012 election, or they don't, and then the D's are the ones who have to pull a rabbit out of a hat by coming up with a plan that both houses can approve in an extremely short time frame.

Like dessert, I really am starting think this will go literally to the 11th hour—if not beyond.
Aren't we already there? The House has already passed a bill, but as I understand it, the D-controlled Senate won't pass it, and The President has said he would veto it.

House passes GOP debt measure; Obama praises compromise plan - CNN

-ERD50
I had not seen the linked story when I wrote my comment last night. Yes, since the House has passed Speaker Boehner's bill, we are "already there" and the ball is now in the Democrats' court. And now that I've re-read the front page of this thread asking to keep it non-political, that's all I am going to say about that (on this thread).
__________________
kyounge1956 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2011, 08:08 AM   #34
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Purron's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 5,584
Now they're talking about a compromise vote at 1pm today. If this doesn't work, let's send in Suze Orman. She's usually deals with people who are really stupid and irresponsible with money. Her skills might be useful with this bunch.
__________________
I purr therefore I am.
Purron is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2011, 08:56 AM   #35
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 588
Apple has more money than the government, and the government's amount is less each day. What day will WE have more than the government?

August 1st, 1300 Eastern time. Just in time to try to dominate the news with your party's spin on the deal.
__________________
devans0 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2011, 09:16 AM   #36
Moderator Emeritus
Bestwifeever's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 16,375
And still in the running per T-Al's pool's rules ("If you think the debt ceiling problem will be resolved before Aug 2, predict the date and time that you think the resolution will be announced."):

Purron: revised to: 6PM Washington, DC time - July 31st.
Arebelspy: Aug 1, 9:55am EST
Bestwifeever: August 1, noon DC time
T-Al: 8/1, 11:20 pm
GregLee: Aug 1, 11:40 PM
dessert: August 1st at 2355 Eastern time
__________________
“Would you like an adventure now, or would you like to have your tea first?” J.M. Barrie, Peter Pan
Bestwifeever is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2011, 03:15 PM   #37
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 18,299
Intrade - Congress to approve increase in US debt ceiling to $15.1T or more before midnight ET 31 Jul 2011 is 1.0% probable

~ 1% chance of a July31st approval, based on intrade 'betting'.

-ERD50
__________________
ERD50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2011, 03:21 PM   #38
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Purron's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 5,584
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bestwifeever View Post
And still in the running per T-Al's pool's rules ("If you think the debt ceiling problem will be resolved before Aug 2, predict the date and time that you think the resolution will be announced."):

Purron: revised to: 6PM Washington, DC time - July 31st.
Arebelspy: Aug 1, 9:55am EST
Bestwifeever: August 1, noon DC time
T-Al: 8/1, 11:20 pm
GregLee: Aug 1, 11:40 PM
dessert: August 1st at 2355 Eastern time
I think you might be closest Bestwifeever. Looking doubtful it'll be a done deal today.
__________________
I purr therefore I am.
Purron is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2011, 03:43 PM   #39
Moderator Emeritus
Bestwifeever's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 16,375
I don't know, Purron, the Yahoo news headlines are now saying a deal is "really" close (vs. "close" half an hour ago)--you've still got an hour plus before the deal needs to be announced (not actually voted on). Get ready for your press conference .
__________________
“Would you like an adventure now, or would you like to have your tea first?” J.M. Barrie, Peter Pan
Bestwifeever is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2011, 08:36 PM   #40
Full time employment: Posting here.
arebelspy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 625
Quote:
Originally Posted by Purron
Somewhere I read it's important to resolve this before the markets open in Japan. Made sense to me. Since Japan is ahead of us time wise, I'd say August 1st right before the Japanese markets open.
Yup. Wherever you read that nailed it. Announced tonight right as the Asian markets opened.

Will likely be voted on tomorrow morning.
__________________

__________________
arebelspy is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Debt Ceiling - We Are Getting Hoodwinked cb7010 FIRE Related Public Policy 23 07-17-2011 12:24 PM
Your prediction on the Debt Crisis donheff FIRE Related Public Policy 37 07-15-2011 10:29 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:56 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.