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Old 06-04-2014, 02:55 PM   #61
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I'm not sure where you get the survivalist perspective. You must be reading a lot more into this thread than the rest of us.
My concerns come from our government's inability to learn from history or to understand the future unintended consequences of its actions. If you study the global policies and actions that led to the Great Depression, as well as those leading to the inflation of the 70s and early 80s, you will see there is trouble ahead. If you look into the structural changes in the economy that have occurred since the 2008 crisis, we are likely headed to a much more serious financial crisis within the next decade. The preparedness is to hold stocks in companies producing needed goods and services, and companies that will have pricing power to increase prices. Avoid companies reliant on discretionary spending. Owning hard assets is a good hedge. Bonds or any debt may be a bad investment if things get to the point of large defaults or even just large interest rate hikes. Cash is king during a deflationary period, but be ready to invest when inflation kicks in.
Or you can be complacent and think nothing will happen except the good times rolling on forever...like they thought in 1929.
Seems to me there has been a lot of learning since the great depression. The rise of protectionism, FED decreasing the money supply, countries returning to the gold standard, allowing bank failures were all avoided during the 2008 recession due to government actions. It was painful to say the least, and there was much resistance but it was the opposite of the 20s and first few years of the 30s.

As for the structural changes, one could equally make the argument that we are setting the stage for rousing growth.

But in the end we just don't know. I have to agree with Brewer. Learn from history, set up your AA to weather reasonable storms, and then enjoy life. No use in continually worrying about what we cannot change.
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Old 06-04-2014, 03:22 PM   #62
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So you don't have control over how your investments are allocated? How's that working out for you?
I thought this was a forum to share ideas. Why the attitude? There are more and more people who are realizing this economy is headed for a world of hurt. When or how bad no one knows. But one thing I'm sure of is it won't always be a bull market. If you don't want to listen to any thoughts other than those that agree with yours, that's your option. But there's no reason to put down other ideas with your uneducated perspective of "you have no control over."
LOL - I think you might be a little off base regarding who is educated or not.

Survivalist perspective is coming across loud and clear to me in this thread. A strong message of "we are doomed". That's pretty hard to work with from an investment perspective. And of course we all are doomed......eventually.
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Old 06-04-2014, 03:22 PM   #63
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Why shouldn't people be able to discuss alternative thoughts and strategies without being put down by others? Seems to me people are just denying anything could ever go wrong, and to me that is unrealistic.
No one is stopping you or anyone else from sharing your opinion or suggesting strategies.
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Old 06-04-2014, 03:32 PM   #64
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LOL - I think you might be a little off base regarding who is educated or not.

Survivalist perspective is coming across loud and clear to me in this thread. A strong message of "we are doomed". That's pretty hard to work with from an investment perspective. And of course we all are doomed......eventually.
The funny thing is that my lifestyle is probably the closest to survivalist/prepper of anyone on this thread and I am the one saying to get on with life.
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Old 06-04-2014, 04:24 PM   #65
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The funny thing is that my lifestyle is probably the closest to survivalist/prepper of anyone on this thread and I am the one saying to get on with life.
And I'm glad to hear you say it too!
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Old 06-04-2014, 04:33 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by CaliforniaMan View Post
Seems to me there has been a lot of learning since the great depression. The rise of protectionism, FED decreasing the money supply, countries returning to the gold standard, allowing bank failures were all avoided during the 2008 recession due to government actions. It was painful to say the least, and there was much resistance but it was the opposite of the 20s and first few years of the 30s.

As for the structural changes, one could equally make the argument that we are setting the stage for rousing growth.

But in the end we just don't know. I have to agree with Brewer. Learn from history, set up your AA to weather reasonable storms, and then enjoy life. No use in continually worrying about what we cannot change.
The FED decreasing the money supply was a mistake that was one of the contributing factors to the Great Depression, however in 2008-9 they didn't know when to stop. It has continued and has gone too far and will be very difficult to navigate out of without triggering deflation followed by hyperinflation. The gold standard prior to WWI worked remarkably well for abut 70 years. After WWI some countries tried to go back to the pre-war price of gold, while others wanted to reset the gold price to a new level and didn't follow agreed upon rules, worsening the financial crisis.
Banks in 2008 should have been able to fail, because bankruptcy would have created a longer term healthier economy and healthier banks with clean balance sheets. Instead all that debt was just moved from the banks to the government and hasn't gone away. Consumer deposits were already protected in 2008 by the FDIC, and Roosevelt pretty much did just that to save confidence in banks in 1933, followed by the actual creation of the FDIC. The way the banks are set up now being much more highly leveraged had set them up for the crisis, and things haven't changed much. Regulation hasn't really fixed the problem, just burdened all banks.
The structural changes of bailing out banks, auto companies and such, with the taxpayer taking on the debt, and all the entitlement debt looming in the future, is not a recipe for rousing growth. That is evident by the sluggish economy we're in now.
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Old 06-04-2014, 04:36 PM   #67
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LOL - I think you might be a little off base regarding who is educated or not.

Survivalist perspective is coming across loud and clear to me in this thread. A strong message of "we are doomed". That's pretty hard to work with from an investment perspective. And of course we all are doomed......eventually.
I guess when a discussion on economics turns to assumptions of being a survivalist rather than providing real substance about the economic discussion, one has to wonder...
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Old 06-04-2014, 04:56 PM   #68
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There are many who think we should have let the banks fail. While I have some empathy for that POV, I think so many dominoes would have fallen that the repercussions would have been far beyond what most can imagine...

As for me, I got a call from Quicken loans a few weeks ago, trying to get me to cash out some equity on my home at "historically low rates". I refi-ed about 1.5 years ago to a 3.75%, 30-yr fixed. Told them I wasn't interested in cashing out, and already had a lower rate than they were offering.

Hopefully, others have taken this same opportunity to de-leverage.
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Old 06-04-2014, 05:38 PM   #69
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I guess when a discussion on economics turns to assumptions of being a survivalist rather than providing real substance about the economic discussion, one has to wonder...
You really have to wonder why extremist views being expressed are being met with disbelief/mockery/suggestions of survivalism? Uh, OK.

And now for something completely different:
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Old 06-04-2014, 06:02 PM   #70
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Time to tie some trout flies
LOL, who said 12345 wasn't gettin' any?
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Old 06-04-2014, 09:10 PM   #71
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It can be hard to discuss economics with some folks.

"Das ist nicht nur nicht richtig, es ist nicht einmal falsch!"
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So it goes, so it goes...
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Old 06-04-2014, 09:29 PM   #72
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Thanks to all for an interesting discussion.

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