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Old 06-30-2015, 06:17 PM   #221
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Tough choice.... I pick....
Now if it was New Jersey or Illinois....
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Old 06-30-2015, 06:17 PM   #222
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A point raised by a commentator on NPR today was that the imposition of currency controls by the Greek government today already did a lot of damage. Once you deny people access to their own money, reestablishing faith in the banking system takes a very long time. I'd agree with that--if I lived there, I'd make it a point to withdraw everything I could as soon as I could.
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Old 06-30-2015, 06:21 PM   #223
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Now if it was New Jersey or Illinois....
it would be an easier decision.
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Old 06-30-2015, 06:27 PM   #224
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I forgot to add that Puerto Rico debt is $72B for 3.6M people. That works out to a "mere" $20K/person. But Puerto Ricans are leaving the island, and are not sticking around.

Again, as I mentioned in an ealier post, Greece debt is about US$32K/person.

And the US national debt is US$72K/person. We still need to add to that various state debts.

It's a good thing our debts are all in US dollars.
Population density of Greece is 221 per square mile

Population density of USA is 83 per square mile

Debt of Greece is $7 million per square mile

Debt of USA is $6 million per square mile

Winner USA (but not by much)
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Old 06-30-2015, 06:45 PM   #225
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Per square mile seems an odd way to measure such things. Why not per mile of coastline?
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Old 06-30-2015, 06:56 PM   #226
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It is interesting nevertheless to think of "debt per square mile".

Darn! How are we going to generate $6M out of a square mile of scorched earth to pay the debt, with no water to grow anything because of the drought?

Oh boy! I should not be badmouthing the Greeks anymore.

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Old 06-30-2015, 07:15 PM   #227
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USA has a pretty diverse geology. Even what once was looked on as worthless land in North Dakota is now valuable (well, it was when oil was $100 a barrel heh heh).

Are you saying every square inch of Greece is fertile, full of resources and water?


Measuring debt per square mile actually seems more reasonable than debt per person. People are expendable and expandable, it is very hard to create more land.


An extreme: Everyone move out of Texas and deed it to me. I will take on $10,000,000 worth of debt and still be happy as a clam. My country of Texas, $10,000,000 debt per person, but my land generates $10,000,000,000 in oil and gas.
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Old 06-30-2015, 08:02 PM   #228
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I have yet to see a plan for what would be done if Greece leaves the EU (votes "no" on July 5). Without a plan why would anyone vote "no"?

Where is the plan for Greek survival if not backstopped by the EU? Won't pensioners starve whereas now they are getting some Euros?

There is this from Wikipedia with no mention of the costs or who pays:
Plan Z during 2012

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_...m_the_eurozone
Wow - thanks for this excellent citation (in particular the Financial Times article it references).

The article is the second in a three-part series (all worth reading if you're interested in the current Greek crisis), which can be found by googling the following terms:
part 1: "how the euro was saved"
part 2: "Inside Europe's Plan Z"
part 3: "if the euro falls europe falls"

The startling (but perhaps retrospectively unsurprising) fact is that we're reliving many of the things that already happened then (including a Greek Prime Minister calling a referendum (then quashed) on a Euro plan).

In any case, the articles don't directly answer your question, but I believe the paper by Anil Kashyap (linked in what's currently post #206 of this thread by ronin) at least briefly talks about a possible path.

Basically the greeks lose access to debt markets, but at the same time also get to write off the debt (the former is the cost of doing the latter).

This means (per the paper) that Greece would be forced to live within its means. Interestingly enough (also per the paper) this is something that it has already done in 2014 - the only thing keeping them in a deficit was the interest on the debt.

Therefore, the immediate effect of removing all debt could actually be positive for Greece, despite a future inability to incur more sovereign debt (at least until the markets forgive the default).

There is another positive factor - once out of the Eurozone, Greece gets to print their own money. This means they have access to a whole range of monetary policies which are currently out of their reach.

Their currency is likely to be weak compared to other currencies which will in turn boost Greek exports and boost Greek tourism (due to relatively low prices in Greece vs. Euro-denominated destinations). These boosts may help fuel a growth spiral in the Greek economy.

The upshot is, it's not a given that Greece is worse off outside the Euro. The pensioners certainly won't starve.

I still feel that staying in the Euro is the better option for Greece, but there are clearly trade-offs to be made.
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Old 06-30-2015, 08:31 PM   #229
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it would be an easier decision.
"Both"
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Old 06-30-2015, 08:33 PM   #230
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...
In any case, the articles don't directly answer your question, but I believe the paper by Anil Kashyap (linked in what's currently post #206 of this thread by ronin) at least briefly talks about a possible path.

Basically the greeks lose access to debt markets, but at the same time also get to write off the debt (the former is the cost of doing the latter).
...
Thanks, I have now read the article mentioned in #206 after you pointed it out. It's an interesting read.

My feeling is that the vote will be "yes" on July 5. So there is no need to ponder the "no" question.

It is then a question as to what government will remain to continue negotiations. Since Greece is a parliamentary government, it's not like Tspiras will stay in power. I'm sure his party has a "yes" strategy. But he has alienated the Germans and others in a most alarming way. It's amazing to me that those people and especially Tspiras are still smiling in public.

And so the drama will go on.
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Old 06-30-2015, 09:14 PM   #231
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Yes, no matter what happens, life will go on. The Greeks still have the ocean from which to catch fish, their goats to make feta cheese and to spit-roast, their olive trees, their grapevines. They will still drink ouzo and dance the Sirtaki.

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Old 06-30-2015, 09:25 PM   #232
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If they get booted from the Euro I expect to buy some very high quality wines at low, low prices.
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Old 06-30-2015, 10:17 PM   #233
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And I expect to travel there more cheaply. It may be crowded, however.
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Old 06-30-2015, 10:21 PM   #234
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And I expect to travel there more cheaply. It may be crowded, however.
Not if you save up your whole SS for a month and just buy one of their little islands. They are cute!
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Old 06-30-2015, 10:26 PM   #235
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And I expect to travel there more cheaply. It may be crowded, however.
If Greece treads the path of Venezuela and Argentina, I would have absolutely no interest in travelling there for quite a while.
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Old 06-30-2015, 10:36 PM   #236
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I hope the Greeks will do better.

Here's a Greek flash mob dancing the Sirtaki in 2011. Thought it was in Greece, but saw that it was in Ottawa. The native Greeks are too busy standing in line at the automatic tellers to dance.

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Old 06-30-2015, 11:11 PM   #237
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Not if you save up your whole SS for a month and just buy one of their little islands. They are cute!
You are close to a good idea.
What do we know about Greece?: It has good weather, it's already a popular destination for tourists and it's in severe financial stress.

So....

Why not simply give all of Greece to Disney? Forgive Greece's debts (since they won't be paid off anyway) and let Disney take over. Disney is not in financial stress. As a matter of fact, Value Line rates it highest for safety and for financial strength.

Disney knows how to make money. Let them own and run Greece. They know how to run resort areas. They are already global. Disney knows logistics, community planning, finance, travel, etc. They probably have their own employment office. I'm sure they would figure out a tax system that worked. Greek pensioners could pick up part-time jobs working at various theme parks around the country. The teacher cited in an earlier post could live his dream and come home and find work. Bet Germany and France will jump on this idea once they hear about it.
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Old 06-30-2015, 11:25 PM   #238
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I hope the Greeks will do better.

Here's a Greek flash mob dancing the Sirtaki in 2011. Thought it was in Greece, but saw that it was in Ottawa. The native Greeks are too busy standing in line at the automatic tellers to dance.

Yes, that's the Byward Market in Ottawa, about 2 blocks from the U.S. fortress embassy. At one point you can see the Canadian parliament buildings in the background.

I don't think too many Greeks are dancing tonight.
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Old 07-01-2015, 05:56 AM   #239
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Somebody calculated that a 3-Euro donation from everybody in the European Union would pay off the Greek debt. Crowd-funding. The website keeps crashing from the overwhelming response.

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/g...ut-fund#/story
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Old 07-01-2015, 06:08 AM   #240
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Yep, everything about this crisis suggests that it's being staged for the amusement of observers like me. The latest headline says that Tsipras, only a day after publicly announcing that he would resign rather than agree to the creditors' terms, has now capitulated and is agreeing to virtually all of the creditors' demands. I tell you, you can't make this stuff up because nobody would believe it. I wonder if Tsipras really plans to resign. Gee, I hope not. It's not often that a world leader emerges who has such an instinctively perfect sense of comedic timing.
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