Greece

[Totoro]

And seems to me one of the biggest questions is about the future of all the unemployed youth.

And so many of them .. unemployment rates are levels not seen since .. well ever I think:
Europe's Record Youth Unemployment: The Scariest Graph in the World Just Got Scarier - The Atlantic

Many of them will drift northwest geographically (to find work). The ones that stay seem to be going left politically.

 

[Totoro]

Current draft also available here:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/eurogroup-proposal-greece-181914005--business.html#GtmH8nx

Given the need to rebuild trust with Greece, the Eurogroup welcomes the commitments of the Greek authorities to legislate without delay, by July 15, a first set of measures

This bit seems to indicate a positive direction,

Other items are sometimes a bit derisive and humiliating in wording, but leaves little room for doubt.

It looks like Tsipras has his moment in history right now. I wish him strength and wisdom.

 

[explanade]

Looks like take it or leave it, the leave it being temporary Grexit.

I think Germany really prefers the latter so they made the former really tough for Greece to take.

Whatever the case, this may drag on.

DAX indicated to open down 174 points on Monday.

 

[Katsmeow]

I think it is likely that Greece will (and should) reject it and exit the EU.

 

[Texas Proud]

Current draft also available here:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/eurogroup-proposal-greece-181914005--business.html#GtmH8nx



This bit seems to indicate a positive direction,

Other items are sometimes a bit derisive and humiliating in wording, but leaves little room for doubt.

It looks like Tsipras has his moment in history right now. I wish him strength and wisdom.

I did not read them all.... but do not think many are going to pass....


I also see that the problem is not just passing the laws... but the implementation.... kinda reminds me of a Jeff Foxworthy joke... and I will screw it up royally....

Said that someone came by to repo the car... and unless they are able to pay what they owe they are going to take the car... in the conversation the guy said he would accept a check... Jeff said something like 'a check, I thought you would want cash... I can give you a check"....
​

Greece will probably just write a check that has nothing behind it...

 

[mpeirce]

I think Germany really prefers the latter so they made the former really tough for Greece to take.

It's not just the Germans, though they obviously have the most pull.

The Finns are Greece's toughest adversaries | GRReporter.info

Furthermore, 74% of Finns say that the creditors must insist on compliance with the conditions originally agreed. Only 14% believe that the terms should be renegotiated and Greece's debt reduced.

In Denmark, this percentage is 64%, in Germany - 61%, in Sweden - 53%, in France - 41%, and in the UK - 38%.

and almost all the former communist countries that have joined the eurozone are taking a tough stand as well.

 

[NW-Bound]

It's not just the Germans, though they obviously have the most pull.

The Finns are Greece's toughest adversaries | GRReporter.info

and almost all the former communist countries that have joined the eurozone are taking a tough stand as well.

That should not be surprising. These countries know first-hand that "To each according to his needs" will inevitably lead to more and more needs. And let's not forget that 1/2 of Germany knew how well Communism worked.

 

[RAE]

Ah, the rest of EU is having the same question: can they trust Tsipras? Nope.

They just gave him a 72-hour deadline to put their requirements into law. And they want state assets as collateral.
.

Tspiras has botched these negotiations from the start, but he made a very serious misjudgment at the end of June, when he abruptly left the talks and called for that Greek referendum. Then he went back home and rallied the crowds, calling the creditors "terrorists" who wanted only to "humiliate" the Greek people. That stunt clearly angered many of the European leaders, including Merkel. Well, he got his NO vote, then turned around and presented a new proposal to the EU that was essentially the same as the one the voters just rejected. Meanwhile, the banks are now closed, so the economy is near collapse. So, things are now far worse, as the EU leaders no longer trust him at all (which I can understand). So now they want state assets as collateral for any future loans, which again, is understandable, because if you can't believe the party you are negotiating with will follow through on what they agree to, then you either: 1) walk away, and let the Grexit happen; or 2) you find a way to exert more direct control, to make sure any agreement reached is adhered to. It sounds like the EU leaders have given Tspiras these two options. Neither is very palatable.

Tspiras was very close to getting a much better deal from the EU at the end of June, without all these direct controls, but he chose to abruptly walk away and start the name-calling and grandstanding. Very bad decision, as it will only lead to more pain and suffering for the Greek people now. I do feel badly (to a point) for the Greek people, but you could also argue that they elected this guy, knowing what he stood for and what he was like.

 

[CaliforniaMan]

Well as the Greeks like to point out, they are a democracy, but unfortunately, in a democracy you never get a government better than you deserve.

 

[Winemaker]

Krugman is an idiot.

 

[samclem]

In the event of (another) default, I don't know how practical it would be for any of the creditors to actually take possession of Greek state assets that are being mentioned as collateral. And what would they do with them? That's either being put in there to kill the deal with the Greek Parliament or to help sell it among the rest of Europe.

 

[NW-Bound]

Well as the Greeks like to point out, they are a democracy, but unfortunately, in a democracy you never get a government better than you deserve.

As I said earlier, if we look back in history we will see uncounted times that the populace was led down an abyss by its leaders. What is happening in Greece so far does not stray too far from the range of outsiders' expectations, but the Greeks could not understand what was happening to them.

When the referendum was passed with the "No" vote, people were elated. They truly believed that their will would be imposed on the rest of Europe, that new money would come for their life to resume as usual. Then, they were devastated when learning that Tsipras conceded.

As I mentioned earlier, people are generally optimistic and want to believe that bad things will not happen. Philosophically, people have to be this way, because if one is too pessimistic or takes a fatalistic attitude, life will be sadder.

 

[MooreBonds]

In the event of (another) default, I don't know how practical it would be for any of the creditors to actually take possession of Greek state assets that are being mentioned as collateral. And what would they do with them? That's either being put in there to kill the deal with the Greek Parliament or to help sell it among the rest of Europe.

+1.

"Greek 911" operator: Yes, what is the problem.

Phone caller: I'd like to call to report a robbery, over at the (now) German Parthenon.

"Greek 911" operator: Ok, we'll send someone right over.

No officer ever is sent. What is the sovereign gov't going to do - sue Greece for not providing adequate public services to the foreclosed-on property?

Or if there is vandalism by Greek residents, how much is the foreign gov't going to pump into maintaining whatever it is they now own? Will they hire local Greeks to operate it? Want to take a guess how well the Greek populace will run it?

 

[NW-Bound]

Somebody calculated that a 3-Euro donation from everybody in the European Union would pay off the Greek debt. Crowd-funding. The website keeps crashing from the overwhelming response.

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/greek-bailout-fund#/story

A follow-up to the above: This fund raising closed on July 6, with a total of 1,930,577 euros raised, far short of the 1.6B goal.

And seems to me one of the biggest questions is about the future of all the unemployed youth. They are coming into a world their predecessors created for them, a word of very few opportunities and they are understandably angry, and will probably get even more so. The big question then: will they drift to the far right, or to the far left, or will there be a clash between those that choose one vs other? We have seen this happen before in Europe during times of economic crisis and the results were never pretty.

And so many of them .. unemployment rates are levels not seen since .. well ever I think:
Europe's Record Youth Unemployment: The Scariest Graph in the World Just Got Scarier - The Atlantic

Many of them will drift northwest geographically (to find work). The ones that stay seem to be going left politically.

They soon will have 3.05M retirees, over a population of 11.1M before any exodus. That's 27.5%, computed over all citizens including children. If young Greeks leave the country, the ratio will go even higher. There will be fewer left to support the economy and the retirees.

Whatever will happen will be a lesson to other countries, not to accommodate the retirees at the expense of their young.

 

[redduck]

...
Whatever will happen will be a lesson to other countries, not to accommodate the retirees at the expense of their young.

Luckily, for us old geezers, countries are slow learners.

 

[sanfanciscotreat]

I am a retiree and have never been accommodated by anyone; having to educate my self for a good career and save for my own retirement funding. I see now that Greece has been put through a very tight wringer in order to obtain another bailout. Good riddance to the Greek leadership in getting parliament to approve such strict terms.

 

[sanfanciscotreat]

Do not mess with Merkel. Tsipras, having been castrated by same, is now limping home.

 

[MichaelB]

Greek banks have been closed for 2 weeks, so the economic damage will be severe. Hopefully it will not be catastrophic and activity can recover to close to previous levels. The challenges ahead are still enormous and the Greek people have a long and hard road ahead.

 

[DEC-1982]

I am sceptical about the new 50 billion euro in asset sales. Looking at the past

"But in the last five years, Greece has sold only a paltry €3.2 billion of assets,
about 94 percent below the target. The choicest assets were bought at discounts
by wealthy Greek businessmen."

 

[Katsmeow]

I must admit I'm surprised and, frankly, don't think Greece should do it. I think Greece (and the rest of Europe) would be better off with Greece getting out of the euro.

This doesn't mean that I think Greece didn't originally get itself into its financial woes by overspending. I think it did. But, I don't think these kinds of measures make it more likely that Greece can repay the debt.

 

[samclem]

The euro is up against other currencies this morning, I think the markets believe that the recent announcements make it more likely an agreement will be reached.
So, is the euro up because:
1) The traders always bid it up by force of habit anytime an agreement with Greece is reached?
2) Traders believe that the terms are onerous enough that it will provide a disincentive for fiscal irresponsibility among other eurozone nations?
3) Traders believe the euro will be a stronger currency with Greece aboard than if Greece drops the euro?
4) Something else?

I doubt it is number 3.

 

[karluk]

Let's not forget the additions the Greek crisis has already made to the English language. "Grexit" has been the most popular and widely known new word, but I've also seen "gretigue" (extreme fatigue over the seemingly never-ending crisis) and just today "agreekment" (a compromise achieved by the weaker party in the negotiations abjectly conceding every point of substance). We'll see what other creations the ingenious wordsmiths come up with before this crisis runs its course.

 

[Meadbh]

It's not signed, sealed and delivered yet.

There are 3 big obstacles Greece still needs to clear before getting more bailout cash:

http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/greece-bailout-vote-2214468-Jul2015/

 

[explanade]

In the short term, they need an infusion of cash and probably playing ball with the EU is the easiest way.

In the long term, getting out of the EZ and defaulting on the debt may be better for them.

But with the banks and the people running out of cash, maybe they felt they had no choice.

If they institute all these conditions, Greece will no more be able to pay its debts in the future than it has been able to in the past.

So a few years from now, we'll probably be facing this crisis again.

 

[NW-Bound]

This Greek tragedy will not end soon. It is only interesting to watch because the US is not involved.

Luckily, for us old geezers, countries are slow learners.

Plus I do not think I will live to be 100. It's hard in one's old age to have youngsters with placards outside the nursing homes chanting "Down with geezers" because they are fed up with SS and Medicare costs.